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what it is
Assembly Biosciences develops antiviral drugs for hard-to-treat viral diseases.
how it gets paid
Last year Assembly Biosciences made $29M in revenue. Collaboration and research revenue was the main engine at $29M, or 100% of sales.
what just happened
Assembly posted $30M of quarterly revenue and lost $3.03 a share.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
-$6.69 fy2024 eps est
$29M fy2024 rev est
n/a operating margin
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Assembly Biosciences develops antiviral drugs for hard-to-treat viral diseases.
Its edge is narrow and real. It has 73 employees, so you are buying a small team, not a sprawling machine. That matters because small biotech wins or dies on one data readout, not scale.
How they make money
$29M
annual revenue
Collaboration and research revenue
$29M
HBV program
$0M
HSV and HDV programs
$0M
Other research programs
$0M
The products that matter
clinical pipeline
hepatitis b portfolio
0 approved products · next data in 12–18 months
This is the real business. The company has no approved products today, and the next major proof point is clinical data expected within 12–18 months.
the actual thesis
core development candidate
abi-h3733
pipeline driver · valuation sensitive
This is one of the names investors are really paying for. With $29M in revenue against a $445M market cap, any candidate tied to the hepatitis B program carries outsized weight in the stock.
catalyst watch
legacy hbv candidate
vebicorvir (vbr)
pipeline context · not a cash cow
This matters as part of the broader hepatitis B strategy, not as a mature product. Right now the company still has 0 approved products and is expected to lose $6.69 per share.
proof matters
Key numbers
$29M
annual revenue
This is the money coming in. It is tiny next to a $445M market cap, so the market is paying for the pipeline.
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. This means the company loses more than it brings in from operations. That is science spending, not a healthy business.
$2M
long debt
Debt is not the problem here. The problem is that losses arrive much faster than repayments.
1.2
beta
This says the stock moves a little more than the market. In a small biotech, that usually means extra drama.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $2M (0% of capital)
C++ — risk rank looks solid but balance sheet grade needs watching.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ASMB right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Assembly posted $30M of quarterly revenue and lost $3.03 a share.
EDGAR showed revenue of $30M for the latest quarter, up 177% vs. prior year. EPS was -$3.03, so the growth did not fix the losses.
$30M
revenue
-$3.03
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The $30M revenue print mattered most because it was real growth, but it still sat on top of a loss-heavy business.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk here is hepatitis B clinical trial failure or delay. A stock valued at $445M on $29M of revenue and 0 approved products does not have much operating business underneath it if the science disappoints.
high
Trial data disappoints
The stock lives or dies on clinical results. One weak readout can turn a future drug into a dead program.
could shave 30% off a $445M market cap
high
Cash burn stays ugly
FY2024 revenue is only $29M, while operating margin is -159.3%. That gap says the business still burns cash fast.
could force a financing that dilutes you by 15%
med
Single-pipeline dependence
The company’s pipeline is concentrated in antiviral programs. If one program stalls, the next one does not replace it quickly.
could threaten the full $29M revenue base
Bottom line: you own a science bet, not a steady business.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
the next 12–18 months are the whole calendar
That is when the next major hepatitis B trial data is expected. For a company with no approved products, the calendar is not background noise. It is the business model.
valuation
15x sales only works if the pipeline earns it
You are paying about $15 for every $1 of revenue on a $29M base. That is a statement about future probability, not current economics.
capital risk
watch the cash update more than the debt line
Long-term debt is just $2M, but a -$6.69 EPS estimate means dilution risk can still show up fast if timelines slip.
trading setup
the chart already tells you this is a sentiment stock
A $8–$40 52-week range with price now at $34.60 says expectations have already rerated upward. Good data can still help. Bad data hits harder from here.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
60 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not see a smooth earnings line here — expect revisions and surprises.
risk rank
1
this measure reads safer than 95% of stocks, but that does not mean low volatility. It mostly tells you leverage is limited.
price stability
10 / 100
the stock has not behaved like a steady compounder. The $8–$40 range makes that painfully clear.
coverage picture
thin
target and ranking data are incomplete here. When the data is thin, you focus on trial timing, cash, and valuation discipline.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ASMB is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$35
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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