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what it is
Arrowhead builds gene-silencing drugs that try to shut off the bad instructions causing disease.
how it gets paid
Last year Arrowhead Pharma made $829M in revenue.
why it's growing
Full-year revenue stepped up from ~$3.5M to ~$829M— a mechanical rocket on a tiny base. The key number was ~$200M from Novartis, because it explains much of the latest quarter's ~$264M revenue and shows how dependent results are on deal timing.
what just happened
Arrowhead posted $264M in revenue and $0.22 EPS in its latest quarter, a sharp turn from last year's losses.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
39.9x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
5.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$0.01 fy2025 eps est
xvary composite: 61/100 — average
What they do
Arrowhead builds gene-silencing drugs that try to shut off the bad instructions causing disease.
You are not betting on one lab idea. Arrowhead has 18 drug candidates in clinical trials, from Phase 1 to Phase 3, plus its first commercial drug launch in 2025. RNA interference → gene silencing → turns off harmful genetic instructions, so one platform can feed multiple shots on goal.
How they make money
$829M
annual revenue · FY revenue jumped from a ~$3.5M base to ~$829M (vs. prior year % is huge on a tiny denominator— treat as step-change, not a steady growth rate)
total revenue
$829M
step-up
The products that matter
approved commercial product
plozasiran
first approval · $829M revenue year followed
this is the asset that changed the story. revenue went from $3.5M to $829M after approval, so one product now carries an outsized share of investor trust.
first approval
next-wave pipeline assets
cardiometabolic pipeline
2026 readouts · obesity and liver disease
this is what has to justify an $8B market cap beyond one approved drug. if the 2026 readouts land, the platform story gets stronger. if they do not, the multiple has less to stand on.
2026 catalysts
partner-linked economics
novartis-related royalties
partner sales matter · $640M debt in the capital stack
partner sales reports matter because royalty revenue helps defend profitability and fund the pipeline. with $640M of long-term debt, outside cash generation matters more than it would at a cleaner balance sheet.
partner risk
Key numbers
$2.0B
2026 revenue goal
This is the whole argument. At an $8B market cap, the stock is asking you to believe revenue can jump from $829M to $2B fast.
$640M
long-term debt
Debt is 8% of capital, which is manageable on paper, but you are still owning a biotech that just raised more money in 2026.
14.7%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Arrowhead showed it can post real operating profit when partner payments land.
18
clinical candidates
Eighteen programs spread the risk across more than one drug, which matters when one failure can wreck a biotech story.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $640M (8% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ARWR right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Arrowhead posted $264M in revenue and $0.22 EPS in its latest quarter, a sharp turn from last year's losses.
Revenue rose on partner payments and the company's first approved product launch. The quiet part: one ~$200M upfront payment can make the quarter look a lot cleaner. Gross margin prints as n/m here because milestone-style revenue can make consolidated GM look artificial— use cash costs and segment notes, not one headline ratio.
$264M
quarter revenue
$0.22
eps
n/m
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was $200M from Novartis, because it explains most of the quarter's $264M revenue and shows how dependent results are on deal timing.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is plozasiran concentration risk. one approval turned $3.5M into $829M revenue, which is great until you remember how much of the equity story now sits on one product and a pipeline that still has to prove itself.
med
single-product dependence
an $8B valuation resting on one approved drug leaves little room for launch slippage. the first win is real. diversification is not yet.
an $8B valuation resting on one approved drug leaves little room for launch slippage. the first win is real. diversification is not yet.
med
2026 readout failure
the cardiometabolic pipeline is carrying a lot of narrative weight. weak obesity or liver disease data would make the platform story look narrower than investors want.
the cardiometabolic pipeline is carrying a lot of narrative weight. weak obesity or liver disease data would make the platform story look narrower than investors want.
med
partner revenue disappointment
novartis-linked royalties matter because they can support margins and cash generation. if partner sales underwhelm, arrowhead has fewer ways to defend last year’s step-change.
novartis-linked royalties matter because they can support margins and cash generation. if partner sales underwhelm, arrowhead has fewer ways to defend last year’s step-change.
med
valuation and volatility reset
5 / 100 price stability tells you the stock already moves like a catalyst trade. when expectations reset in biotech, they rarely do it gently.
5 / 100 price stability tells you the stock already moves like a catalyst trade. when expectations reset in biotech, they rarely do it gently.
If you own this, you need the platform to keep producing deals and approved drugs. Otherwise the $8B market cap gets hard to defend.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
2026 obesity and liver disease data
this is the cleanest test of whether the platform can produce a second wave of value. one approved drug is a story. multiple credible programs would be a franchise.
metric
whether $829M starts looking durable
last year’s leap is already in the numbers. what matters now is whether sales and partner economics keep revenue from looking like a one-year spike.
risk
plozasiran concentration
the bigger the product becomes, the more the stock trades on any sign of launch weakness, reimbursement friction, or slower adoption.
trend
whether the $81.67 target is moving up or just standing still
in biotech, unchanged targets after new data can be just as informative as upgrades. the street updates confidence with a lag, not with courage.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
25 / 100
earnings are hard to model here. in human-speak, expect surprises rather than a smooth quarterly rhythm.
consensus target midpoint
$81.67 +28%
about 28% above the current $63.82. in human-speak, analysts still think the story has room if the data cooperate.
price stability
5 / 100
very low stability. this name reacts to catalysts like a biotech, because that is exactly what it is.
xvary composite
61 / 100 average
not broken, not bulletproof. the stock has enough to like, but it still needs more proof than a mature pharma would.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ARWR is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$64
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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