Arvinas Inc.

Arvinas posted a -$2.77 EPS year on $263M of revenue. That is a very expensive science project.

If you own ARVN, watch the 4 drug tests, not the ticker.

arvn

healthcare small cap updated feb 27, 2026
$11.65
market cap ~$779M · 52-week range $6–$15
xvary composite: 47 / 100 · below average
our overall rating — combines growth, value, risk, and momentum
Start here if you're new
what it is
Arvinas makes drugs that try to destroy disease proteins instead of just blocking them.
how it gets paid
Last year Arvinas made $263M in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.3% last year. Sales jumped 504% vs. prior year. That kind of jump usually means the base was tiny.
what just happened
Revenue hit $253M last quarter, but EPS stayed negative at -$0.18.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$2.77 fy2024 eps est
$263M fy2024 rev est
45.1% operating margin
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
Arvinas makes drugs that try to destroy disease proteins instead of just blocking them.
Most drugs block a protein. Arvinas tries to tag it for cleanup. That is why you own 4 clinical programs, not one lab bet. Your upside comes from a platform that keeps the same chemistry across several shots.
healthcare biotech small-cap oncology neurodegeneration
How they make money
$263M annual revenue · revenue declined -0.3% last year
total revenue
$263M
0.3%
The products that matter
breast cancer drug candidate
vepdegestrant (arv-471)
lead asset · no standalone sales base shown here
It sits inside a company that reported $262.6M in 2025 revenue, but only $9.5M came from product sales. That tells you the lead program still matters more for future value than current commercialization.
lead readout risk
oncology drug candidate
luxdegalutamide (arv-766)
clinical program · 2026 data matters
This is one of the programs that can shape sentiment in 2026. For a $779M company, secondary pipeline wins matter because they can widen the story beyond one lead asset.
pipeline depth
parkinson's disease candidate
arv-102
phase 1 data expected march 2026
Phase 1 data is expected at AD/PD 2026 in March. On a stock that has traded between $6 and $15 over the last 52 weeks, early data can reset expectations fast.
catalyst watch
Key numbers
$263M
2024 revenue
That is real money for a company still losing $2.77 a share. The sales line exists, but profit does not.
45.1%
operating margin
For every $100 of sales, $45.10 disappeared into operating costs. That is a research company, not a cash machine.
4
clinical programs
You are betting on 4 shots at once. That spreads risk, but it also means 1 failure can still hurt a lot.
$8M
long-term debt
Debt is tiny at 1% of capital. Leverage is not the problem here; the pipeline is.
Financial health
B
strength
  • balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
  • risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
  • price stability 5 / 100
  • long-term debt $8M (1% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market

Return history isn't available for ARVN right now.

same standard. no invented return math.

source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $253M last quarter, but EPS stayed negative at -$0.18.
Sales jumped 504% vs. prior year. That kind of jump usually means the base was tiny, not that profit arrived.
$253M
revenue
-$0.18
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
Revenue mattered more than EPS because the company still posted -$0.18 a share while sales rose 504% vs. prior year.
source: company earnings report, 2026

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What could go wrong

The #1 risk here is pipeline disappointment, especially around vepdegestrant and the broader 2026 readout calendar. When only $9.5M of $262.6M revenue comes from product sales, clinical data does most of the valuation work.

∘
med
clinical setbacks hit the whole story at once
ARVN still looks like a science platform more than a selling machine. Weak data from a lead or follow-on program can pressure both sentiment and partnership leverage.
ARVN still looks like a science platform more than a selling machine. Weak data from a lead or follow-on program can pressure both sentiment and partnership leverage.
∘
med
revenue concentration is extreme
About 96.4% of 2025 revenue came from partnerships, or roughly $253.1M. If milestone timing slips or collaboration economics change, the top line can fall fast.
About 96.4% of 2025 revenue came from partnerships, or roughly $253.1M. If milestone timing slips or collaboration economics change, the top line can fall fast.
∘
med
volatility can overwhelm good science in the short term
A 5 / 100 price stability score and a $6–$15 52-week range tell you this stock can move hard before the fundamental picture is fully resolved.
A 5 / 100 price stability score and a $6–$15 52-week range tell you this stock can move hard before the fundamental picture is fully resolved.
∘
med
new leadership means a strategy reset is possible
The new CEO took over in february 2026. If pipeline prioritization changes, timelines, capital allocation, and the market's patience can change with it.
The new CEO took over in february 2026. If pipeline prioritization changes, timelines, capital allocation, and the market's patience can change with it.
If the next readouts disappoint, your thesis loses the only thing holding it together: future data.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
march 2026 could reset the neurology narrative
Phase 1 data for ARV-102 is expected at AD/PD 2026 in Copenhagen. For a stock priced at $11.65 with a $779M market cap, even early data can move the conversation.
trend
2026 is shaping up as a multi-readout year
Management expects new clinical data from ARV-102, ARV-806, and ARV-393 throughout 2026. More shots on goal help, but they also raise the number of ways the story can disappoint.
risk
new CEO means new capital allocation choices
Randy Teel stepped in on feb. 12, 2026. Watch what gets emphasized, delayed, or quietly deprioritized. In biotech, strategy changes usually show up in the pipeline before they show up in revenue.
metric
the gap between $11.65 and $20 is sentiment, not certainty
Piper Sandler's latest target is $20, about 72% above the current price. That sounds dramatic because small-cap biotech targets often are. What matters is whether data earns the gap.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
35 / 100
earnings are hard to model here because collaboration timing and clinical progress do most of the work.
risk rank
3 / 5
middle-of-the-pack on the raw rank, but that understates how binary the business model still is.
price stability
5 / 100
in human-speak, this stock can swing hard on limited information. If you want calm, this is not where you shop.
published target coverage
thin
the snapshot gives one fresh sell-side target move, not a full consensus range. Better to say the data is thin than pretend otherwise.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity

institutional ownership data for ARVN is being compiled.

source: institutional data
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a n/a
$12 current price
n/a target midpoint · n/a from current
target data not available

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