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what it is
Alliance Resource digs up steam coal, sells it to utilities and factories, and throws off more cash than its valuation suggests.
how it gets paid
Last year Alliance Resource made $2.2B in revenue. utility steam coal was the main engine at $1.32B, or 60% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 10.4% last year. $1.7 billion mattered most because it showed ARLP can still produce huge sales bursts.
what just happened
Revenue hit $1.7B, while reported EPS came in at $0.73, showing the top line can spike even as normalized earnings stay messy.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
3.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
8.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.6% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 50/100 — below average
What they do
Alliance Resource digs up steam coal, sells it to utilities and factories, and throws off more cash than its valuation suggests.
ARLP wins by being the nearby supplier when utilities need fuel that actually shows up. If your power plant needs coal from western Kentucky, southern Illinois, or Indiana, distance is not trivia. Long-term debt is just $448 million, or 11% of capital, so this business has room to keep operating when weaker rivals get squeezed.
How they make money
$2.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -10.4% last year
utility steam coal
$1.32B
12.0%
industrial steam coal
$0.44B
8.0%
coal terminal and resale
$0.22B
5.0%
mine products and services
$0.13B
+4.0%
maintenance and transport services
$0.09B
+2.0%
The products that matter
mines and sells coal
coal operations
$2.2B · down 10.4%
this is the $2.2B revenue base investors are underwriting, and it shrank 10.4% from a year ago. if coal volumes or realized pricing weaken again, the whole thesis feels it.
core cash flow
leases mineral rights
oil & gas royalties
secondary income stream
it matters because it gives you something other than coal, but with total company revenue at $2.2B and no separate segment number shown here, it is still supporting the story rather than rewriting it.
secondary stream
Key numbers
3.1x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → what you pay for each dollar of profit. At 3.1x, the market is treating ARLP like profits have an expiration date.
8.8%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to you versus stock price → your income is real, but so is the market's skepticism.
17.6%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → ARLP is still very profitable for a company in a shrinking industry.
$448M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over years → at 11% of capital, leverage is low enough that balance sheet stress is not the main problem.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $448M (11% of capital)
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ARLP right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $1.7B, while reported EPS came in at $0.73, showing the top line can spike even as normalized earnings stay messy.
Revenue rose 190% vs. prior year to $1.7 billion, based on EDGAR data. But Value Line's quarterly history shows EPS fell from $1.22 in Q1 2024 to $0.12 in Q4 2024, which is your reminder that coal pricing can make one quarter look like a different planet.
$1.7B
revenue
$0.73
eps
17.6%
operating margin
the number that mattered
$1.7 billion mattered most because it showed ARLP can still produce huge sales bursts, but the 190% jump also tells you this business is volatile, not steady.
source: EDGAR and, latest available quarter
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is Mettiki disruption on top of a shrinking coal revenue base.
high
coal demand keeps shrinking
revenue already fell 10.4% to $2.2B, and the forward estimate points to about $2B. that means almost the entire business is exposed to more contraction.
if the revenue line keeps stepping down, the 3.1x multiple stops looking cheap and starts looking accurate.
high
Mettiki operational disruption
the WARN Act notice tied to the Mettiki coal mine puts a real asset behind the worry. layoffs, idling, or closure would hit shipment volume before the market hears a clean narrative.
one site issue can turn a slow decline story into an immediate cash-flow problem.
med
distribution reset risk
an 8.8% yield attracts income buyers, but income stocks lose their appeal fast when the payout starts competing with weaker earnings. the $2.44 EPS estimate is not wide enough to ignore that tension.
if holders stop trusting the payout, yield support can vanish faster than the underlying business changes.
a forced production hit at Mettiki would land on top of a $2.2B revenue base already heading toward a $2B estimate. that is why this yield looks generous.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
operating risk
Mettiki mine update
watch for closure, restart, or labor updates after the WARN Act notice. this is the cleanest real-time signal on whether the risk is contained or getting worse.
revenue
revenue versus the $2B base case
analysts already model fy2026 revenue around $2B. if results slip below that, you are no longer debating upside — you are debating how fast the runoff story is arriving.
income
distribution declaration dates
the payout is why many investors own ARLP. every declaration is a fresh read on management confidence, especially while revenue is moving lower.
trend
two straight reports of stabilization
one quarter does not fix a shrinking-industry narrative. two reports with steadier revenue or volume would matter because they would challenge the market's assumption that decline is the default path.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
earnings are harder to model than most stocks. in human-speak, this is not the kind of income name you buy and ignore.
risk rank
4
that places ARLP in the riskier half of the market. plain english: the yield is paying you for volatility, not giving you a free lunch.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ARLP is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$24
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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