Start here if you're new
what it is
Ares runs a $484B alternative investment business across credit, private equity, real estate, and other pools of capital.
how it gets paid
Last year Ares Management made $5.6B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 44.2% last year. Also, the company's private credit business has been very strong, as it has capitalized on healthy demand for direct lending and alternative credit.
what just happened
Ares missed by 88.7% last quarter, even as revenue jumped 147%.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
34.9x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
2.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 60/100 — average
What they do
Ares runs a $484B alternative investment business across credit, private equity, real estate, and other pools of capital.
At 12/31/24, Ares had $484B in AUM (assets under management, the money it oversees). That is 78% direct institutions versus 22% retail. You do not move that much money casually, and leaving means giving up a long relationship and a lot of paperwork.
How they make money
$5.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +44.2% last year
total revenue
$5.6B
+44.2%
The products that matter
manages private equity funds
Private Equity
$504M revenue · 9% of sales
it generated $504M last year, or 9% of firmwide revenue. that's meaningful, but it also tells you this page is showing selected pieces of a much larger platform.
core
manages real estate funds
Real Estate
$896M revenue · 16% of sales
this segment brought in $896M, or 16% of revenue. among the disclosed lines here, it's the biggest one — which matters because real estate fee streams are not always smooth.
largest shown
buys and trades private stakes
Secondary Solutions
$336M revenue · 6% of sales
this business contributed $336M, or 6% of annual revenue. secondaries matter more when private-market investors want liquidity and exits are harder to find.
cycle-sensitive
Key numbers
$484B
AUM
This is the money Ares oversees. Bigger AUM means more fee dollars, and that is the whole machine.
$5.6B
revenue
This is the top line from a business that lives off fees, not widgets.
34.9x
trailing p/e
You are paying 34.9 times trailing earnings, so the stock is already priced like execution has to stay clean.
2.7%
dividend yield
You get a 2.7% cash yield while you wait, which matters when the share price is not cheap.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $11.3B (23% of capital)
- net profit margin 27.6% — keeps 28 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 25% — $0.25 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ARES 3 years ago → it's now worth $24,710.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Ares missed by 88.7% last quarter, even as revenue jumped 147%.
Revenue hit $4.1B, and said management fees climbed nearly 30% vs. prior year in the September quarter. Yahoo shows trailing EPS of $2.33, while shows FY2025 EPS of $5.00, so the market is arguing about the earnings base.
$4.1B
revenue
$0.13
eps
88.7%
surprise
the number that mattered
The $0.13 EPS print versus $1.15 expected was the whole story. That is an 88.7% miss.
-
record fundraising helped to boost assets under management considerably, which provided a shot in the arm to operating profit growth.also, the company's private credit business has been very strong, as it has capitalized on healthy demand for direct lending and alternative credit.
-
ares also benefited from robust management fees, which climbed nearly 30% vs. prior year during the september quarter.another factor that contributed to growth was the acquisition of gcp international in early 2025, which added more than $45 billion to assets under management. we believe that the healthy momentum will continue this year, as the company is well positioned to take advantage of likely favorable capital markets.
-
while the capital markets can be difficult to predict, lower interest rates relative to recent levels and a favorable regulatory backdrop augur well for m&a activity over the next few years.what's more, we look for assets under management to trend higher long term, which should help boost management fees. we project that revenues and earnings per share will advance at a double-digit annual rate, on average over the 3- to 5-year stretch ahead. Ares is well diversified, which ought to provide for a stable and consistent income stream over the long run. These shares offer solid returns for investors with an 18-month horizon. capital gains potential for the pull to 2028-2030 is worthwhile as well and would be enhanced if the company were to make an acquisition or two down the road. as per our convention, we don't include acquisitions in our forecast until they are finalized. conservative investors should note that the stock's growth consistency is excellent (100 out of 100), while a solid yield provides some downside protection during uncertain times.
-
alan g.
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house january 23, 2026
source: company earnings report, EDGAR, and Yahoo Finance consensus
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What could go wrong
the #1 disclosed risk here is the november 2025 antitrust lawsuit alleging a group boycott, but that is not the only thing that can hurt you in this setup.
high
antitrust lawsuit
an antitrust case filed in november 2025 alleges a horizontal group boycott involving Ares Management LLC. legal overhangs matter more when the stock trades at 34.9x earnings.
the exact revenue exposure is not disclosed in this dataset. what you can say with confidence: if the case starts touching fee-generating activity or raises compliance costs, a premium multiple gets compressed fast.
med
growth normalization
revenue grew 44.2% last year. the current estimate is $6B after $5.6B. that's still growth, but a much slower step up.
when a stock goes from hyper-growth to normal growth, the multiple often does the adjusting. at 34.9x trailing earnings, you are exposed to that rerating risk even if the business stays profitable.
med
lumpy profitability
quarterly margin was 9.4% while full-year net margin was 24.6%, and earnings predictability scores only 45/100.
that gap tells you the fee stream is real but not smooth. if more quarters look like the 9.4% print than the full-year average, the market stops paying up for consistency.
the cleanest way to frame it: you have legal risk with unknown dollar exposure, a stock priced for continued growth, and a business model that can post uneven quarters. none of those kill the thesis alone. together, they explain why this page lands at 60/100 instead of higher.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
the antitrust case timeline
watch every filing tied to the november 2025 lawsuit. when a stock trades at 34.9x earnings, uncertainty alone can get expensive.
metric
revenue versus the $6B estimate
the market already expects revenue to move from $5.6B to $6B. that is the next proof beat, not a bonus.
trend
whether margins re-expand
the recent quarter printed a 9.4% margin against a 24.6% full-year net margin. you want that gap narrowing for the right reasons.
calendar
institutional flow after the next quarter
institutions were net buyers for three straight quarters. if that support fades while growth cools, sentiment can turn before fundamentals do.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts see a normal setup, not a near-term breakout signal.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle-of-the-road risk. not defensive, not chaotic.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is behaving like a normal stock, which means fundamentals have to do the heavy lifting.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings are harder to model here than at a steadier compounder. expect some lumpiness and price the stock accordingly.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 405 buyers vs. 309 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$151
$299
$174
current price
$225
target midpoint · +29% from current · 3-5yr high: $275 (+60% · 14% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive