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what it is
Ardelyx sells prescription drugs for bowel problems and dialysis patients.
how it gets paid
Last year Ardelyx made $407M in revenue. IBSRELA net product sales was the main engine at $231M, or 57% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 22.1% last year. 156% revenue growth matters because demand is working.
what just happened
$282M in revenue looks strong, but the quarter still lost $0.25 a share.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
0.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
-$0.17 fy2024 eps est
$334M fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
Ardelyx sells prescription drugs for bowel problems and dialysis patients.
Ardelyx has 2 approved drugs. Big Pharma often has dozens. Your refills can repeat, instead of resetting every sale. The company does it with 395 employees, not 39,500.
How they make money
$407M
annual revenue · their business grew +22.1% last year
IBSRELA net product sales
$231M
+24.0%
XPHOZAH net product sales
$156M
+19.0%
License and collaboration revenue
$12M
+8.0%
Other revenue
$8M
+3.0%
The products that matter
commercial gastrointestinal therapy
ibsrela (tenapanor)
2026 guidance: $410M–$430M
This is the product carrying the current thesis. Management's $410M–$430M 2026 revenue target is the scoreboard you should keep on your desk, because a miss here hits both growth expectations and management credibility.
the number to watch
commercial revenue base
current scale
$407M last year · +22%
ARDX already reached $407M of annual revenue. For a roughly $1B market cap stock, that is real scale. It also means your margin for excuses gets thinner from here.
scale is real
what shareholders actually need
cleaner earnings
still unproven
The business already showed you the problem: revenue rose 22% and earnings still missed because spending rose faster. Until that flips, every growth number comes with an asterisk.
proof still pending
Key numbers
$407M
2024 revenue
This is the size of the whole business. For a roughly $1B company, $407M in sales is the loud part.
-$0.17
2024 EPS
You are still paying for growth that has not reached profit.
22.1%
revenue growth
Sales rose 22.1% vs. prior year. That is the difference between a live story and a fading one.
$206M
long-term debt
Debt equals $206M, or 13% of capital. That is manageable, but it still sits on the balance sheet.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $206M (13% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ARDX right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
$282M in revenue looks strong, but the quarter still lost $0.25 a share.
Revenue was up 156% vs. prior year. The quarter still posted a loss because spending stayed heavy.
$282M
revenue
-$0.25
eps
156%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
156% revenue growth matters because demand is working, even while the quarter stayed unprofitable.
source: company earnings report, latest quarter
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What could go wrong
The biggest risk is IBSRELA missing its $410M–$430M 2026 target while spending keeps absorbing the upside.
high
Reimbursement squeeze
Both drugs depend on insurers paying up. If coverage tightens, the $231M IBSRELA line takes the first hit.
could threaten $231M of annual revenue
med
Product concentration
IBSRELA is 56.8% of revenue, and XPHOZAH is 38.3%. That leaves little room if either launch slows.
a 20% drop in IBSRELA sales would cut about $46M
med
Debt still matters
Long-term debt is $206M, or 13% of capital. That is not a crisis, but it is one more bill while earnings are still negative.
$206M of debt limits flexibility
The stock needs both drugs to keep growing. If one stalls, the math gets ugly because one product is already 56.8% of sales.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
next report
Does quarterly progress keep IBSRELA on track for $410M–$430M in 2026
That guide is the cleanest kill criterion on the page. If results drift materially below it, your thesis changes before your spreadsheet does.
cost discipline
Revenue growth has to stop arriving with an earnings problem attached
ARDX already proved demand. The next proof is simpler: sales need to grow faster than the expense base, so more of each dollar reaches earnings.
scale test
$407M of revenue means investors will ask for cleaner conversion from here
At this size, the market stops giving full credit for growth by itself. You need to see better earnings follow-through, not just larger sales.
volatility
A 5 / 100 price stability score means the stock will keep exaggerating every update
If you own it, plan for a louder tape than the fundamentals alone might justify. That is what unsettled stories do.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
45 / 100
Earnings are harder to model here. in human-speak, you should expect surprises, and some of them will arrive from the cost line rather than the demand line.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ARDX is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$6
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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