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what it is
Arcturus makes RNA medicines for liver and respiratory diseases, with 176 employees.
how it gets paid
Last year Arcturus Therap made $82M in revenue. KOSTAIVE collaborations was the main engine at $34M, or 42% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 46.1% last year. Revenue was up 336% vs. prior year, but the company still posted a loss.
what just happened
Revenue hit $75M, but EPS stayed at -$1.35.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
3.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$3.00 fy2024 eps est
$152M fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 38/100 — weak
What they do
Arcturus makes RNA medicines for liver and respiratory diseases, with 176 employees.
Most biotech firms have one molecule and a prayer. Arcturus has more than 500 patents and patent applications, plus over 150 proprietary lipids. LUNAR, its lipid nanoparticle delivery system (fat bubble that carries RNA), gives your drug a ride into cells. KOSTAIVE was the first approved self-amplifying mRNA COVID vaccine, so this is real product history, not poster-board science.
How they make money
$82M
annual revenue · their business grew -46.1% last year
KOSTAIVE collaborations
$34M
LUNAR license fees
$22M
Consulting and services
$16M
Grants and other revenue
$10M
The products that matter
mRNA platform technology
mRNA platform
valued inside a $190M company
This is the core asset. The market cap is only $190M, which tells you investors are assigning limited value until the platform produces clearer clinical wins.
platform bet
partnered development
csl collaboration
still part of the 2026 thesis
The collaboration adds outside validation, but the stock is still down near $7.67 because partnership optics do not erase execution risk. You still need programs to progress.
external validation
lead pipeline catalyst
respiratory program
next key milestone in H1 2026
Management has pointed investors to further development in H1 2026. When one program carries this much of the narrative in a $190M stock, every timeline update becomes a valuation event.
story driver
Key numbers
$82M
annual revenue
This is the whole business size. Small revenue makes every deal swing the numbers.
93.0%
operating margin
For every $1 of sales, $0.93 disappears in operating loss.
2.15
beta
The stock moves about 2.15 times the market, so bad news hits harder.
$22M
long-term debt
Debt is 10% of capital, so leverage is there, but losses are the bigger problem.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $22M (10% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ARCT right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $75M, but EPS stayed at -$1.35.
Revenue was up 336% vs. prior year, but the company still posted a loss. Gross margin was -36.8%, and the annual operating margin sits at -93.0%.
$75M
revenue
-$1.35
eps
36.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $75M quarter matters because it was 336% above last year, yet the company still lost $1.35 per share.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
ARCT's risk profile is concentrated, not broad. This is a $190M clinical-stage mRNA company trading at $7.67 with a 5 / 100 stability score. When one program carries the story, one miss can carry the stock the other way.
med
respiratory pipeline delay or disappointment
Management has pointed investors toward further respiratory development in H1 2026. That milestone now carries a disproportionate share of the thesis.
If that timeline slips or the update underwhelms, the 64% peer multiple discount does not need to close. Cheap can stay cheap when the date slips.
med
funding pressure before sentiment improves
A B balance sheet and $22M of long-term debt look manageable in isolation. They look less comforting in a clinical-stage company where the timeline is still the whole argument.
If development takes longer than planned, investors stop asking what the platform could be worth and start asking how long the current capital base can support it.
med
more estimate cuts
Analysts already reduced Q1 2026 EPS estimates on March 6. In a stock with a 5 / 100 predictability score, cuts matter because they signal falling confidence, not because quarterly EPS is the core story.
Another round of cuts would reinforce the idea that visibility is getting worse. That can pressure the stock before any clinical readout arrives.
med
thin sponsorship amplifies every headline
ARCT is a $190M stock with thin target coverage and a 5 / 100 price stability score. That usually means weak shock absorption when the news is bad.
One cautious update can produce an outsized move because there is not much natural support underneath a name this small.
Until margins improve from -93.0%, this is a cash-burn stock, not a cash-flow stock.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
May 11, 2026 earnings
This is the next hard date on the calendar. You want cash-burn commentary, funding tone, and a clean restatement of what H1 2026 still means.
timeline
H1 2026 respiratory development update
The respiratory program is doing more work than the rest of the page. If this milestone firms up, the discount can narrow. If it slips, the market will notice fast.
risk
another round of estimate cuts
Analysts already reduced Q1 2026 EPS estimates on March 6. More cuts would reinforce the idea that visibility is getting worse, not better.
valuation
whether the 64% peer discount narrows
That gap is both the opportunity and the warning label. It closes only if the company gives investors a reason to trust the timeline again.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
very low. in human-speak, analysts do not have a stable earnings story to anchor the stock yet.
published target coverage
thin
There is not enough useful target data here to build a serious range. That is common in names this small, and it still matters.
technical read
volatile
Price stability of 5 / 100 already tells you what you need. This is a headline-driven stock, not a smooth trend.
street confidence
mixed
A March 2026 estimate cut and a wait into H1 2026 is not what strong near-term confidence looks like.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ARCT is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$8
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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