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what it is
ArcBest moves freight for businesses and households, from pallet-sized shipments to full truckloads and urgent deliveries.
how it gets paid
Last year Arcbest made $4.0B in revenue. less-than-truckload was the main engine at $2.40B, or 60% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 4.0% last year. The problem was not volume alone. Freight mix got lighter and lower margin.
what just happened
ArcBest's latest quarter came down to $0.36 in EPS, which missed the $1.17 estimate by 69.23%.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
27.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
0.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 64/100 — average
What they do
ArcBest moves freight for businesses and households, from pallet-sized shipments to full truckloads and urgent deliveries.
This is a network business in a very physical industry. If you need freight moved fast, capacity matters more than slogans, and ArcBest has 14,000 employees feeding that machine. The edge is scale, not magic: a B+ balance sheet and just $136 million of long-term debt, or 6% of capital, give you room to keep trucks, terminals, and service levels working when weaker carriers get squeezed.
How they make money
$4.0B
annual revenue · their business grew -4.0% last year
less-than-truckload
$2.40B
full truckload
$0.64B
freight brokerage and forwarding
$0.52B
expedited and time-definite delivery
$0.28B
household moving, roadside, and equipment services
$0.16B
The products that matter
moves freight and manages logistics
Freight transportation and logistics
$4.0B revenue
it's the entire $4.0B business, and last year's ~4.7% net margin (health line) vs thinner quarterly prints tells you scale alone does not guarantee pricing power every quarter.
~4–5% net margin
Key numbers
27.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → price divided by past earnings → you are paying 27 times trailing profit for a freight business with projected earnings growth of 3.5%.
12.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → 12.5% is solid, but not rich enough to excuse a sloppy cycle.
$136M
long-term debt
Debt is just 6% of capital, which gives ArcBest more room than a levered carrier when freight rates turn ugly.
$115
18-month target
That target is only 15.3% above today's $99.75 price, so your near-term upside is real but hardly heroic.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $136M (6% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.7% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ARCB 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,240.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
ArcBest's latest quarter came down to $0.36 in EPS, which missed the $1.17 estimate by 69.23%.
The problem was not volume alone. Freight mix got lighter and lower margin, and the asset-based operating ratio worsened 420 basis points to 96.2%, which means costs ate almost the whole dollar.
~$973M
quarter revenue
$0.36
quarter EPS
69.23%
surprise
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 96.2% operating ratio because costs nearly matched revenue, leaving very little profit cushion.
-
despite a sharp operating slowdown for the trucker, arcbest’s stock price is up 33% since our mid-november review.
-
the freight mover has struggled operationally for a couple of years now.the recent december-quarter’s results — earnings came in at $0.36 a share, on revenues of about $973 million — reflected tough conditions.
-
asset-based operating ratio deteriorated 420 basis points, to 96.2%, as unfavorable freight mix (lighter, lower-margin shipments replacing heavy manufacturing freight) and cost inflation (union wages, equipment depreciation) strained margins.
-
this pressure offset the roughly 3% tonnage growth in the stanza.in addition, december weather disruptions and asset-light’s weaker-than-expected performance were problematic.
-
nonetheless, arcb’s price has been surging, thanks to the company’s recently announced three-year turnaround plan that promises to triple earnings through costcutting, technology improvements, and market-share gains.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is freight mix shifting away from heavier manufacturing shipments.
med
lower-margin freight mix
Management already called out lighter, lower-margin shipments replacing heavier manufacturing freight. In trucking, the mix can matter almost as much as the volume.
Impact: the asset-based operating ratio deteriorated 420 basis points to 96.2%. That is what mix pressure looks like when it hits the numbers.
med
union wages and equipment depreciation
Higher labor costs and depreciation were explicit drags in the latest results. This is a physical network, so there is no software-margin escape hatch.
Impact: with quarterly margin at 1.5% and trailing net margin near ~4.7% in the health line, even modest cost inflation has room to do real damage.
med
asset-light weakness and turnaround slippage
Asset-light underperformed expectations, and the stock is already leaning on a three-year plan that promises to triple earnings. Plans are easy. Freight markets are not.
Impact: if quarterly results keep looking like $0.36 EPS on $973M of revenue, the stock can run out of patience before management runs out of slides.
med
emissions and hours-of-service rules
New compliance requirements could raise operating costs in a business that already lives close to the line.
Impact: a company keeping only a few points of net margin does not need a dramatic regulatory hit for earnings to feel it.
a 96.2% operating ratio and 1.5% quarterly margin leave almost no cushion — the turnaround needs better freight, lower costs, or both
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
operating ratio has to move down from 96.2%
That is the cleanest scoreboard for whether the turnaround is becoming real or staying a presentation.
trend
freight mix needs to improve
Watch for heavier manufacturing freight to come back. Management already told you the recent mix was lighter and lower margin.
calendar
three-year turnaround milestones
The stock has responded to the promise of tripled earnings. Each quarterly update now has to show what was actually delivered.
risk
asset-light results cannot stay weak forever
If the non-asset-heavy side keeps disappointing while the core network runs at thin margins, there is no second engine to bail out the quarter.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock can still outperform over the next year.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — neither a bunker stock nor a disaster waiting to happen.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart is not confirming the turnaround story as cleanly as the headline move suggests.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings are harder to model here than they look. In a thin-margin freight business, small operating changes can create big EPS swings.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
134 buyers vs. 137 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 22.6M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$65
$164
$100
current price
$115
target midpoint · +15% from current · 3-5yr high: $215 (+115% · 21% ann'l return)
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