Start here if you're new
what it is
Arbe sells 4D radar systems that help cars and machines see objects.
how it gets paid
FY2025 revenue was ~$1.0M (FY2024 ~$0.8M). Most public wins are automotive and Tier-1 radar programs, but Arbe does not break out segment revenue at this scale.
why it's growing
Full-year revenue rose ~34% vs. prior year; Q4 revenue was up ~363% vs. prior year off a ~$99K prior-year quarter—so growth looks huge but the base is still tiny.
what just happened
$458K of quarterly sales came with a -16.6% gross margin.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
-$0.41 FY2025 EPS (actual)
FY2026 rev guide $4–6M · Street ~$8M
operating margin NM (heavy loss)
1.2 beta
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
What they do
Arbe sells 4D radar systems that help cars and machines see objects.
You are looking at a small team chasing FY2026 guidance of $4–6M in revenue (analyst consensus near ~$8M) against ~$1M trailing sales. Arbe sells the radar chip and the software brain together, so customers swap less hardware and less code at once.
How they make money
~$1.0M
annual revenue (FY2025) · full-year sales rose ~34% vs. prior year vs FY2024 (~$0.8M)
Consolidated radar chipset & related revenue
~$1.0M
Filings show a single revenue line; end-market splits are not disclosed at this revenue level.
The products that matter
4D imaging radar semiconductor
Perception Radar Chipset
~$1.0M annual revenue base (FY2025)
it is the core product behind the current ~$1M revenue base, and FY2025 gross margin was deeply negative (~−78%). The tech may be real. The business model still is not.
current commercial core
platform selection with oems
Automotive Design Wins
2027 expected revenue start
this is the part that matters most for the stock. Management says current automotive pursuits do not become meaningful revenue until 2027, so you are valuing future platform wins more than present sales.
the whole thesis
Key numbers
$4–6M
2026 sales (company guide)
Management outlook (Feb 2026). Analyst consensus for FY2026 revenue is nearer ~$8M—still a step-up from ~$1M trailing, not billions.
~$1.0M
Trailing sales
FY2025 reported revenue. The question is how fast that can scale toward guidance and whether unit economics improve.
NM
Operating margin
Operating loss was ~$47.9M on ~$1.0M revenue in FY2025—margin is not meaningful; the business is loss-making at tiny scale.
~$25M
Convertible bonds
Balance sheet (Dec 2025) shows material convertible notes (~$24.8M in current liabilities). Liquidity improved after recent financing, but this is not a zero-debt story.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- convertible notes ~$24.8M current (Dec 2025) · material overhang vs ~$1M sales
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ARBE right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
$458K of quarterly sales came with a -16.6% gross margin.
Q4 revenue rose ~363% vs. prior year vs Q4 2024 (~$99K), but the base was still tiny. Basic EPS was $(0.09); FY2025 EPS was $(0.41).
$458K
revenue
-$0.09
eps
−16.6%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $458K quarter matters because it shows growth, but the business is still microscopic.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
The #1 risk here is failing to turn engineering pilots into real automotive production revenue before financing pressure forces more dilution.
med
Negative gross margin is not a rounding error
FY2025 gross margin was about −78%—cost of revenue still exceeds sales. That is not "early-stage noise." It is the current economic reality of the business.
If product economics do not improve, scaling revenue can scale losses too.
med
The capital raise risk is already on the page
The January 2026 share-sale filing matters because the company has only $1M in annual revenue and expects meaningful automotive revenue in 2027, not now.
That gap is where dilution lives. Existing shareholders can be right on the technology and still get diluted on the way there.
med
The commercial timeline is long enough to break the thesis
Meaningful revenue from current design pursuits is projected for 2027, with high-volume production later. Automotive programs move slowly and slips compound.
Every delay extends the period where investors are funding R&D with very little operating proof.
med
Analyst upside is doing a lot of the emotional work
A $2.00 average target implies 147% upside from $0.81, but that target sits far ahead of a business that generated only $0.46M last quarter and $1M for the year.
If the next few quarters stay sub-scale, the target can move down faster than revenue moves up.
This stock needs three things to work in sequence: better unit economics, a real automotive production path, and enough capital to survive until both show up.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
leadership
April 1 CEO transition
A new CEO inherits a business with $1M in annual revenue and negative gross margin. Your first read is whether the message shifts from technology promise to commercialization discipline.
economics
Gross margin direction
Moving from deeply negative gross margin toward break-even matters more than almost any headline. If the unit economics do not improve, revenue growth alone will not save the model.
commercial proof
Named design-win progress
The stock needs more than vague automotive interest. You want evidence that current European OEM discussions are turning into production programs that still point to 2027 revenue.
financing
Any follow-through on dilution
The January 2026 filing was the warning shot. Watch whether Arbe actually taps the market, on what terms, and how much runway the raise appears to buy.
Analyst rankings
price target
$2.00
in human-speak, analysts still think the stock can more than double if today's design-win story turns into tomorrow's revenue.
earnings view
-$0.41
EPS is expected to stay negative. Plain English: nobody covering this name thinks profitability is close.
revenue view
~$8M
Street FY2026 revenue estimates cluster near single-digit millions (company guide $4–6M)—a material step-up from ~$1M trailing if execution lands.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ARBE is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$0.81
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive