Start here if you're new
what it is
Antero drills for natural gas, liquids, and oil in the Appalachian Basin.
how it gets paid
Last year Antero Resources made $5.3B in revenue. Natural gas sales was the main engine at $3.1B, or 58% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 22.0% last year. Revenue jumped 218% vs. prior year and EPS rose 488%.
what just happened
AR posted $1.41 EPS on $3.9B of quarterly revenue.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
20.8x trailing p/e — priced about right
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Antero drills for natural gas, liquids, and oil in the Appalachian Basin.
You are looking at 521,038 acres in Appalachia. That is a huge land position, and 3,421 mmcfe per day in 2024 kept the pipes full. 17,903 bcfe of proved reserves means the inventory is measured in years, not quarters. mmcfe means million cubic feet equivalent, a gas-volume measure, so the daily output number is the real machine here.
How they make money
$5.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +22.0% last year
Natural gas sales
$3.1B
Natural gas liquids
$1.5B
Oil sales
$0.7B
The products that matter
drills and sells hydrocarbons
Natural Gas, NGLs and Oil
$5.3B revenue
It is the whole business: all $5.3B of revenue came from producing and selling natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil, and that revenue grew 22.0% from last year.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$5.3B
annual revenue
You are looking at a $5.3B business with 616 employees. That is a lot of revenue per person.
64%
target upside
The 18-month target sits 64% above $34.24, so the market is not calling this name dead.
16.7%
operating margin
For every $100 of sales, AR keeps $16.70 before interest and taxes.
10.5%
return on capital
The business makes $10.50 back for every $100 put into the operating base.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $1.3B (11% of capital)
- net profit margin 18.6% — keeps 19 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 11% — $0.11 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AR 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,760.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
AR posted $1.41 EPS on $3.9B of quarterly revenue.
Revenue jumped 218% vs. prior year and EPS rose 488%. Yahoo Finance also shows the last reported quarter at $0.62 versus $0.48 expected, a 29.17% beat.
$3.9B
revenue
$1.41
eps
218.0%
revenue Vs. last year
the number that mattered
The $1.41 EPS number matters because it shows the quarter was not just bigger, it was far more profitable.
-
antero resources has joined other competitors in pursuing strategic transactions.late in 2025, the company entered into an agreement to acquire the upstream assets of hg energy ii for $2.8 billion in cash plus the assumption of hg energy’s commodity hedge book.
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simultaneously, antero announced the sale of its ohio utica shale acreage for $800 million in cash.the pending purchase (if approved) would add 385,000 net acres that have the space for over 400 wells, producing 850 million cubic feet equivalent (mmcfe) per day. furthermore, while the assets would add to antero’s inventory of wells, they are also expected to help improve the company’s overall cost structure. management is looking for planning optimization and drilling & completions savings, as well as reduced intangible costs, to generate $950 million in during the next 10 years.
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that said, the divestiture of the utica acreage is estimated to remove 150 mmcfe from volume.management expects hg energy’s holdings to be accretive to free cash flow upon closing, while the non-core utica assets divestiture should help to reduce debt further.
-
the production picture for 2026 is coming into focus.the development of existing assets, along with prior acquisitions (that aggregate approximately $260 million), position the company to boost output, pending favorable market prices. antero intends to maintain the likely 2025 fourth-quarter volume rate of 3.25 to 3.5 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe) at legacy holdings this year.
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but the addition of hg energy’s assets would lift output to 4.2 to 4.225 bcfe.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is integrating the $2.8B HG Energy II acquisition while completing the $800M Utica sale.
med
deal execution risk
AR is trying to close a $2.8B purchase, assume a hedge book, and sell other acreage for $800M in the same window. This is not routine housekeeping. It is a full capital-allocation test.
If the acquisition does not become accretive to free cash flow, the 2026 rerating case weakens fast.
med
volume replacement math
The Utica divestiture removes 150 mmcfe of volume. HG Energy II is supposed to offset that with 850 mmcfe per day plus better inventory quality. That is the numerical logic behind the deal.
If output does not move from the 3.25–3.5 bcfe legacy range toward 4.2–4.225 bcfe, investors will question the whole transaction logic.
med
commodity price sensitivity
All $5.3B of revenue comes from selling produced volumes. There is no second business line to smooth a weak gas market, and the 15/100 earnings-predictability score says exactly that.
Low gas prices would pressure revenue, margins, and the market's patience at the same time.
Miss the close, miss the production ramp, or miss the promised $950M of 10-year savings and the $56 midpoint starts to look like spreadsheet optimism. You own a cleaner-balance-sheet producer, not a low-drama one.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
utica sale close
Watch for the closing of the $800M Ohio Utica shale acreage divestiture and what management does with the cash. Debt reduction is the obvious use. Anything else needs explaining.
calendar
hg energy ii close and integration
Track whether the $2.8B acquisition closes on schedule and whether management still calls it accretive to free cash flow after the paperwork turns into operations.
trend
2026 production guidance
Legacy holdings imply 3.25–3.5 bcfe. With HG Energy's assets, the number rises to 4.2–4.225 bcfe. That spread is not background noise. That is the story.
risk
cost-savings credibility
Management is targeting $950M in savings over 10 years. You want early proof, not just a long-dated promise with a good font.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — no strong short-term edge here. in human-speak, analysts do not see a loud near-term signal.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle-of-the-pack overall risk, even if the stock itself still jumps around.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is acting normal. No breakout. No collapse. No hidden message.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
Very low predictability. If you want smooth quarterly numbers, this is the wrong zip code.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 283 buyers vs. 265 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$30
$81
$34
current price
$56
target midpoint · +64% from current · 3-5yr high: $70 (+105% · 20% ann'l return)
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