Start here if you're new
what it is
AppLovin helps app companies buy users, sell ads, and measure what worked.
how it gets paid
Last year Applovin made $5.5B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 70.0% last year. Third-quarter revenue grew 68% vs. prior year, with adjusted ebitda margins of 82%, metrics suggesting monopoly-like efficiency in ai-driven ad targeting.
what just happened
Revenue hit $3.8B, up 172% vs. prior year, while EPS jumped to $6.51.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
60.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
37.7% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 64/100 — average
$15.00 fy2026 eps est
What they do
AppLovin helps app companies buy users, sell ads, and measure what worked.
Apple's 2021 tracking crackdown broke a lot of mobile ad plumbing. AppLovin got stronger anyway. Revenue rose 70.0% to $5.5B, and operating margin hit 75.8%. If you run an app, you care about one brutal math test: spend $1, get back more than $1. AppLovin keeps passing it.
How they make money
$5.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +70.0% last year
total revenue
$5.5B
+70.0%
The products that matter
AI ad engine
AXON
$3.8B revenue · 69% of sales · +172%
this is the center of gravity. AXON produced $3.8B and grew 172%, which is why a company once tied to mobile gaming now gets treated like premium software.
69% of revenue
user acquisition platform
AppDiscovery
$1.2B revenue · 22% of sales · +45%
this $1.2B business helps developers buy users and gives AppLovin more campaign data. More campaign data improves targeting. Better targeting attracts more spend. That's the machine.
data feed
ad mediation layer
MAX
$0.3B revenue · 6% of sales · +25%
MAX is only $0.3B of revenue, but it sits closer to the publisher relationship. That matters because distribution points often look small until they start deciding who gets the data.
publisher foothold
Key numbers
75.8%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: this company keeps an absurd amount of every sales dollar.
$5.5B
annual revenue
Revenue → total sales → so what: AppLovin is already large, not a tiny story stock living on promises.
37.7%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: management is getting unusually strong output from each dollar deployed.
60.5x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with last year's earnings → so what: you are paying up hard for future growth.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- net profit margin 65.0% — keeps 65 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 28% — $0.28 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for APP right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $3.8B, up 172% vs. prior year, while EPS jumped to $6.51.
The company is converting growth into real profitability. Quarterly trends also stayed strong, with 2025 EPS climbing from $2.22 in Q1 to $2.97 in Q4.
$3.8B
revenue
$6.51
eps
82.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number was 172%. When a company already doing $5.5B annually posts that kind of quarterly revenue growth, the market stops treating it like normal software.
-
in our view, applovin corporation operates a high-quality business.the 2025 pivot from a mobile gaming studio to a pure-play adtech infrastructure company has delivered exceptional results.
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third-quarter revenue grew 68% vs. prior year, with adjusted ebitda margins of 82%, metrics suggesting monopoly-like efficiency in ai-driven ad targeting.
-
the company has clear competitive advantages.
-
in 2021, apple began requiring apps to ask users for permission to track them across other apps.
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most users said no, blinding advertisers like meta and snap that depended on that tracking data.applovin’s axon 2.0 engine works differently; it predicts ad performance using contextual signals (the app category, time of day, ad format) and auction data rather than individual user tracking.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the core risk is simple: one ad engine now supports most of the story, while Apple and Google still write the rulebook above it. APP looks like a software toll booth. The road still belongs to someone else.
med
platform rule changes could hit the core engine
69% of revenue comes from the software platform, and that business sits on mobile systems controlled by Apple and Google. A change to attribution, privacy enforcement, ad delivery, or app store policy can make a high-performing model look suddenly less special.
impact: this risk touches the $3.8B software platform base that now carries most of the valuation
med
one engine carries too much of the investment case
AXON is 69% of revenue after growing 172%. That's impressive. It's also concentration. If growth normalizes quickly, you do not have a balanced set of businesses softening the slowdown. You have one engine losing altitude.
impact: slower growth in the segment supplying 69% of sales would pressure both revenue expectations and the 60.5x multiple
med
the stock already prices in a lot of future perfection
APP trades at 60.5x trailing earnings while the street expects revenue to move from $5.5B to about $8B. That setup works beautifully while growth stays weirdly strong. If results start looking merely excellent, the stock can reprice before the business looks broken.
impact: multiple compression can do damage even if revenue keeps growing
med
volatility is part of the product
beta 2.0 means APP has moved about twice as much as the market. The price stability score is 5 / 100, and the 52-week range ran from $37 to $746. That is not background noise. That is the stock reminding you what kind of name this is.
impact: sentiment can punish you long before fundamentals clearly roll over
what would change our mind: if AXON growth falls below 50% for two consecutive quarters, or if margins start backing away from the 70%+ zone, the premium multiple loses its main defense.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
next earnings
Q1 2026 report — may 6, 2026
analysts expect $3.41 EPS. At this valuation, the result matters less than the guide. You need proof that the growth engine still deserves a premium multiple.
biggest catalyst
e-commerce ad expansion
AXON already proved it can dominate inside mobile gaming. The next test is whether that performance travels into larger ad categories. If it does, the current revenue base is not the ceiling. If it does not, imagination leaves the stock faster than it arrived.
risk to watch
Apple and Google policy language
watch developer events, privacy updates, attribution changes, and app store policy shifts. The business can execute well and still get hit if the rulebook changes above it.
the metric to track
AXON software platform growth
172% growth is what turned this into a market obsession. If that rate falls below 50% for two straight quarters, the hypergrowth story starts looking like a very profitable slowdown instead.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum rank 2. In human-speak, analysts think APP still has above-average near-term performance potential.
risk profile
high risk
stability rank 4 with a 5/100 price stability score. Translation: the stock does not move gently.
chart momentum
strong
momentum rank 2. The trend has been powerful, which is helpful right up until price starts punishing any miss.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
low predictability means estimates are less reliable than they look. Fast-changing business mix does that.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 898 buyers vs. 539 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$391
$1016
$569
current price
$1020
target midpoint · +79% from current · 3-5yr high: $1225 (+115% · 21% ann'l return)
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