Start here if you're new
what it is
American Public runs online and campus schools aimed at working adults, nurses, and government-linked learners.
how it gets paid
Last year American Public made $649M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 309.8% last year. The 4% revenue drop mattered most because it shows demand is still fragile even after profitability improved.
what just happened
APEI's latest quarter showed revenue of $158M and EPS of $0.67, with profit holding up better than sales.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
32.0x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
4.3% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.55 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 46/100 — below average
What they do
American Public runs online and campus schools aimed at working adults, nurses, and government-linked learners.
APEI wins by serving people who need a job-linked credential, not the dorm-room version of college. It offers 184 degree programs and 134 certificate programs, with nursing, military studies, and federal-workforce training built for working adults. If your credits, schedule, and licensure path are already locked in, switching gets painful.
How they make money
$649M
annual revenue · their business grew +309.8% last year
total revenue
$649M
+309.8%
The products that matter
online degree programs
American Public University System
$~400M · +11.9% growth
it serves military and public-service students, and that niche drove an 11.9% revenue increase last year. this is the clearest top-line growth engine you own.
largest segment
nursing and healthcare education
Rasmussen University
$~200M · 31.5% segment ebitda margin
this unit matters because a 31.5% segment EBITDA margin is far above the company-wide 8.9% operating margin. if APEI earns a premium multiple, this is where the margin case starts.
profit center
government workforce training
Graduate School USA
$~50M · roughly 8% of revenue
at about $50M, this unit is small enough to miss the headline and large enough to matter when federal budgets get messy. shutdown risk does not need to hit the whole company to dent the quarter.
budget-sensitive
Key numbers
32.0x
trailing p/e
P/E -> stock price compared with earnings -> so what: you are paying $32 for each $1 APEI earned.
9.3%
operating margin
Operating margin -> profit left after running the business -> so what: APEI keeps $9.30 from every $100 of revenue.
4.3%
return on capital
Return on capital -> profit from the money invested in the business -> so what: this business is still producing a pretty thin return.
$155M
long-term debt
Debt -> money the company owes -> so what: $155M, or 13% of capital, is manageable but still matters when revenue gets shaky.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $155M (13% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for APEI right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
APEI's latest quarter showed revenue of $158M and EPS of $0.67, with profit holding up better than sales.
Revenue slipped 4% vs. prior year, but EPS still rose 6%. The weird part is the whole quarter shows a school operator absorbing softer sales while earnings improved.
$158M
revenue
$0.67
eps
9.3%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The 4% revenue drop mattered most because it shows demand is still fragile even after profitability improved.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is revenue growth failing to catch up with the premium multiple.
high
premium valuation without durable growth
the stock trades at 32.0x trailing earnings versus a 17.3x industry average. last quarter, revenue fell 3.5% to $158.3M. that's the mismatch. you are paying up today for growth the company still has to show.
a miss against the $685M–$695M FY26 revenue guide would hit the core reason investors are paying a premium.
med
government and military enrollment exposure
APEI's niche includes military, public-service, and government-linked training. management tied the Q4 revenue dip partly to a federal government shutdown, and Graduate School USA sits in that budget-sensitive lane at roughly $50M in revenue.
when public funding slows or government operations stall, enrollment and training demand can slow with it.
med
margin gains get harder once the easy fixes are done
full-year net income rose 152% to $31.6M, and Rasmussen posted a 31.5% segment EBITDA margin. strong numbers. once those gains are in the base, future EPS growth has to come from operating momentum, not just cleanup work.
if margins flatten before revenue accelerates, the stock stops looking like a turnaround and starts looking expensive.
a forced reset in the growth story would pressure the full thesis, because the valuation already assumes better earnings and better revenue can live together.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
guidance check
next revenue print versus the $685M–$695M full-year range
this is the first thing to watch. if the next quarter does not move revenue back toward that annual guide, you are looking at a margin story wearing a growth multiple.
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings report
due may 2026. one quarter will not settle the case, but it will tell you whether the 3.5% revenue decline was a one-off disruption or the start of a harder trend.
capital return
$50M share buyback execution
authorized march 10, 2026. buybacks can help EPS, but at 32.0x trailing earnings they do not fix the thesis. they only help if the business keeps improving underneath.
balance sheet
new $130M credit facility and lower borrowing cost
management said the refinancing cut borrowing cost by about 375 bps. in human-speak: debt got cheaper. now you want to see that benefit stay visible in net income instead of disappearing into weaker revenue.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
this score is low. in human-speak: quarterly results are harder to model here than at steadier businesses, so surprises matter more and valuation deserves less trust.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for APEI is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$42
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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