Start here if you're new
what it is
APA drills for oil and gas in the U.S., Egypt, and the North Sea.
how it gets paid
Last year Apa made $7.5B in revenue. crude oil was the main engine at 85% of sales, or 85% of sales.
what just happened
APA's last reported quarter delivered $0.91 in EPS, beating the $0.77 estimate by 18.18%.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
6.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 71/100 — average
What they do
APA drills for oil and gas in the U.S., Egypt, and the North Sea.
This is a scale business. APA produced 408.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, which gives you more wells, more regions, and more ways to spread costs. Return on capital (profit from each dollar invested) was 18.5%, so the assets are still earning their keep.
How they make money
$7.5B
annual revenue
crude oil
85% of sales
natural gas
7% of sales
natural gas liquids
8% of sales
midstream and other
0% disclosed
The products that matter
produces and sells crude oil
Oil
$8.5B · 85% of sales mix
it is 85% of APA's sales exposure and about $8.5B of the commodity bucket. If crude holds up, the stock looks cheap. If crude breaks lower, the low multiple stops looking generous.
85% of mix
produces and sells natural gas
Natural Gas
$0.7B · 7% of sales mix
gas is only 7% of the mix, or about $0.7B, but falling Henry Hub still forced quarterly EPS expectations lower. Small slice. Real earnings effect.
7% of mix
sells natural gas liquids
Natural Gas Liquids
$0.8B · 8% of sales mix
NGLs are about $0.8B, or 8% of the mix. Helpful when pricing is favorable, but not big enough to rescue the story when the oil bucket moves the wrong way.
8% of mix
Key numbers
6.9x
trailing p/e
P/E → price versus past earnings → you are paying $6.90 for each $1 of trailing profit. That is cheap, and the market is charging that discount for commodity risk.
4.0%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders each year versus stock price → you get paid while waiting, if earnings hold up.
18.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money put into the business → APA's wells are still productive enough to clear the cost of capital.
67.3%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business but before interest and taxes → commodity producers can print huge margins when prices cooperate.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $4.3B (33% of capital)
- net profit margin 20.0% — keeps 20 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 20% — $0.20 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in APA 3 years ago → it's now worth $6,130.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
APA's last reported quarter delivered $0.91 in EPS, beating the $0.77 estimate by 18.18%.
That beat matters because the yearly EPS path is still sliding, from $4.53 in 2023 to $3.77 in 2024 to $3.60 in 2025. You got a beat, not a clean growth story.
$0.91
eps actual
$0.77
eps estimate
18.18%
surprise
the number that mattered
$0.91 matters because it shows APA can still outrun low expectations even while commodity prices soften.
-
apa corp.’s fourth-quarter operating results were likely a mixed bag.
-
overall, we think the company likely hit its u.s. oil production target of 123,000 barrels per day.even so, we have pared back our fourth-quarter earnings estimate $0.06 a share, to $0.74 due to weaker-than-expected wti (west texas intermediate) crude prices and a large drop in henry hub natural gas pricing.
-
indeed, since our last report three months ago, wti crude prices have dropped from $70-$75 dollars a barrel to around $57-$60, a 20% drop at the midpoint.
-
meanwhile, henry hub pricing has backed off about 27%, from $3.50-$4.00/mcf (thousand cubic feet) to $2.60-$2.90/mcf.while apa was using more conservative strip pricing for both oil ($65 a barrel) and gas ($3.48/mcf), pricing dipped below these levels as the quarter progressed, which likely led to some pressure on earnings.
-
note that the earnings impact of lower oil and natural gas prices would have been worse absent a change to the u.s. tax code that helped to lower taxes in the fourth quarter (see below).
source: wall street consensus, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is WTI crude and Henry Hub pricing falling below APA's own planning deck.
med
oil price exposure
85% of APA's sales exposure comes from oil. You are not buying diversification. You are buying a view on crude prices holding up well enough to protect cash flow.
A 10% drop in oil prices implies roughly $850M less revenue against the current $8.5B oil bucket.
med
shrinking earnings base
EPS fell from $4.53 in 2023 to $3.77 in 2024 and is projected at $3.60 in 2025. The multiple looks cheap because the "E" has already been moving lower.
That is about a 21% decline from 2023 to 2025, which is how a value case starts drifting toward a value trap.
med
debt in a cyclical business
APA carries $4.3B in long-term debt, equal to 33% of capital. That is manageable when pricing is supportive and more uncomfortable when commodity realizations slip below plan.
If weaker prices last, fixed debt service gets heavier relative to the earnings stream that supports it.
If WTI stays below $65 and Henry Hub stays below $3.48, pressure lands on the same places again: quarterly EPS, cash generation, and the case for why the low multiple should close.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
pricing deck
WTI versus $65 oil
Management had been using $65 oil. Spot around $57–$60 means the stock is still trading against a lower reality than the one in the planning deck.
gas pressure
Henry Hub versus $3.48
Gas is only 7% of mix, but a move from $3.50–$4.00 down to $2.60–$2.90 still cut into EPS expectations. Small segment. Real drag.
operations
123,000 barrels per day in the U.S.
Production hitting target matters because APA does not need an operating miss on top of a pricing miss. One problem is enough.
earnings trend
EPS has gone $4.53 → $3.77 → $3.60
That is the line you are watching now. If the next year turns up, the stock looks cyclical cheap. If it keeps sliding, the discount belongs there.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
very low. in human-speak, analysts do not expect smooth quarters from a producer this tied to crude and gas pricing.
risk rank
3
middle of the pack. In plain English: this is not a distressed balance sheet story, but it is still an energy cycle story.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 379 buyers vs. 245 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$41
$25
current price
$29
target midpoint · +16% from current · 3-5yr high: $45 (+80% · 19% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive