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what it is
Aon helps companies buy insurance, move reinsurance, and run health and retirement plans across about 120 countries.
how it gets paid
Last year Aon made $17.2B in revenue. Commercial Risk Solutions was the main engine at $7.2B, or 42% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 9.4% last year. Revenue rose 222% vs. prior year and EPS rose 336% vs. prior year.
what just happened
Aon just reported $12.9B in quarterly revenue and $9.21 in EPS, with both numbers exploding after the NFP acquisition.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
100/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
20.2x trailing p/e — priced about right
0.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 74/100 — average
What they do
Aon helps companies buy insurance, move reinsurance, and run health and retirement plans across about 120 countries.
Aon wins because your clients do not casually switch the firm handling insurance, reinsurance, health, and retirement advice across 120 countries. Switching costs → changing a core adviser is painful → so what, customers tend to stay. That shows up in a 31.0% operating margin and a 100/100 earnings predictability score.
How they make money
$17.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +9.4% last year
Commercial Risk Solutions
$7.2B
Reinsurance Solutions
$4.6B
Health Solutions
$3.2B
Wealth Solutions
$2.2B
The products that matter
advises on insurance and risk placement
Commercial Risk Solutions
tied to the $17.2B revenue base
the snapshot does not break out segment revenue, so the honest read is simple: this sits inside the same $17.2B fee pool that produced a 22.3% net margin. It is the core reason large clients keep calling.
core engine
advises on benefits and pensions
Health, Wealth and Talent
part of the same fee model
this advisory work sits under the same corporate umbrella that delivered 9.4% revenue growth last year. The page gives no segment split, which means you should treat it as part of the combined client relationship rather than a separate growth story.
cross-sell layer
handles reinsurance and complex risk advice
Reinsurance Solutions
supports the 100/100 predictability story
complex accounts do not switch advisers on a whim. That helps explain a 100/100 earnings predictability score and a 38% return on equity from a business that does not need a giant capital base to earn well.
stickiness
Key numbers
31.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what, Aon keeps about $0.31 from every $1 of revenue before interest and taxes.
$17.2B
annual revenue
Annual revenue → total sales for the year → so what, this is a very large fee base that grew 9.4% vs. prior year.
16.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → so what, Aon turns capital into earnings better than many financial firms.
$15.1B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what, it is 17% of capital, which is manageable but leaves less room if integration slips.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $15.1B (17% of capital)
- net profit margin 22.3% — keeps 22 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 29% — $0.29 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AON 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,110.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Aon just reported $12.9B in quarterly revenue and $9.21 in EPS, with both numbers exploding after the NFP acquisition.
Revenue rose 222% vs. prior year and EPS rose 336% vs. prior year, according to SEC-filed figures. The quarter was driven by acquisition scale more than organic magic, which matters for how long this pace can last.
$12.9B
revenue
$9.21
eps
222%
vs. last year revenue growth
the number that mattered
The 222% revenue jump mattered most because it showed how much NFP changed the size of Aon in one shot.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is commercial insurance pricing and brokerage fee pressure.
high
commercial insurance pricing and brokerage fee pressure
Aon gets paid for advice and placement. If insurance pricing softens or large clients push harder on fees, revenue can keep growing while profit growth slows. For a stock trading around 20.2x trailing earnings, slower fee growth changes the setup fast.
watch revenue growth and margin together — a weaker pricing cycle would pressure the 22.3% net margin that makes this model attractive
med
large-client retention on complex accounts
The moat is relationships, which means the business is only as strong as those relationships stay. If large global accounts defect, the market will care less about the 100/100 predictability score and more about whether that score only described the past.
the snapshot does not give retention data, so you need to read management commentary on renewals and client wins with more care than usual
med
advisory growth stalling across health, wealth, talent, and reinsurance
Aon is priced as a stable compounder, not as a no-growth utility. If the broader advisory platform fails to keep growth near the recent 9.4% revenue pace, you are left with a quality business and less support for the multiple.
the risk is not collapse — it is slower compounding on a $74B company where steady execution is already assumed
med
steady business, impatient stock
The last 3 years showed the tension. The business stayed clean enough to earn a 100/100 predictability score, yet $10,000 only became $11,110 while the index reached $14,770. A good company can still be a slow stock when expectations are already tidy.
if growth cools and the market stops paying around 20x earnings for predictability, underperformance can continue without any operating disaster
a softer pricing cycle or fee pressure would hit the economics of the full $17.2B fee-based revenue stream, not a side segment.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
q1 2026 earnings report
watch revenue growth, margin, and any language around commercial pricing in one place. If one weakens, the other two need to carry more weight.
metric
margin discipline
the stock is built on converting steady fee revenue into profit. Quarterly margin came in at 21.5%. You want that level holding, not leaking.
trend
growth versus predictability
100/100 predictability is the safety blanket. The open question is whether that stability keeps coming with enough growth to support a $436 midpoint target.
risk
client retention language
the data here is thin on segment and retention detail. That makes management commentary on renewals, large-account wins, and pricing more important than usual.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts expect the stock to move with the pack, not outrun it.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. The label reads awkwardly. The actual message is simple: this is a lower-drama name.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart is not giving you help right now.
earnings predictability
100 / 100
the business is easy to forecast. That is valuable. It also means the stock rarely gets paid on surprise.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 595 buyers vs. 475 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$305
$567
$344
current price
$436
target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $630 (+85% · 16% ann'l return)
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