XVARY Composite Score
55
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Amrize sells cement, aggregates, roofing, and wall systems to builders across North America.
How it gets paid
Last year Amrize made $11.8B in revenue. Cement was the main engine at $5.31B, or 45% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.9% last year. The $0.54 print mattered because it was below $0.69.
What just happened
Amrize missed by 21.74% on EPS, with $0.54 versus $0.69.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
29.8x trailing p/e — priced about right
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$3.10 fy2027 eps est
$16B fy2029 rev est
XVARY composite: 55/100 — below average
What They Do
Amrize sells cement, aggregates, roofing, and wall systems to builders across North America.
You are buying a 19,000-person business with 72% of revenue in building materials and 28% in building envelope. That split matters because the 72% side rose 4% in the latest quarter, while the 28% side fell 12%. Leaving is painful when your jobsite supplier already owns the roof, the wall, and the concrete.
How They Make Money
$11.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.9% last year
Cement
$5.31B
+4.0%
Aggregates
$2.12B
0.0%
Downstream products
$1.06B
0.0%
Building Envelope
$3.30B
12.0%
The Products That Matter
Sells construction materials
Building Materials
$11.8B revenue · single segment
It's the entire $11.8B business, running at a 13.1% net profit margin. If residential roofing weakens or project demand slows, there is no second engine to hide it.
100% of revenue
Key Numbers
$77
18-month target
That is 21% above $63.77, or about $13.2 a share.
16.1%
operating margin
For a cement-and-roofing business, 16.1% means 16 cents of operating profit on each sales dollar.
10.5%
return on capital
You are getting 10.5 cents of operating profit for each dollar tied up in the business.
$4.9B
long-term debt
Debt equals 12% of capital. That is manageable, but it leaves less room if construction slows.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- long-term debt $4.9B (12% of capital)
- net profit margin 15.5% — keeps 16 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Amrize missed by 21.74% on EPS, with $0.54 versus $0.69.
Revenue was $9.0B, and gross margin was 25.3%. VL said building envelope revenue fell 12% vs. prior year, while building materials rose 4%.
$9.0B
revenue
$0.54
eps
25.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $0.54 print mattered because it was below $0.69, which is a 21.74% miss.
-
Amrize’s fourth-quarter results came in a bit light versus our expectations.
-
Much of this can be attributed to softness in the building envelope segment, where revenues declined 12% vs. prior year due to weak residential roofing demand.
-
This impact was partially offset by a solid beat in the core building materials business (revenue +4%), owing to higher-than-anticipated volumes in the cement and aggregates categories.while the overall performance was underwhelming versus wall street’s targets, amrz shares rose sharply on the fourth-quarter earnings release and continued to trend higher in the following days. we believe this was likely a reflection of leadership’s encouraging 2026 forecasts, optimism surrounding new strategic growth initiatives, and the announcement of a $0.44-a-share special dividend distribution.
-
The stock ultimately hit a new alltime high of $65.94 on february 24th.
-
The company appears poised for top- and bottom-line improvement in 2026.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is continued weakness in residential roofing demand and the building envelope business.
Med
Building envelope stays weak
The latest company commentary already showed building envelope revenue down 12% from a year ago. If that weakness stays in place, companywide growth can stay pinned near zero even if other categories hold up.
already visible: a 12% decline in the weak segment against just 0.9% growth for the full company
Med
The valuation is prepaying for 2026
The stock trades at 29.8x trailing earnings after full-year EPS of $2.14. That works if EPS gets to $2.75 and revenue gets to $12B. It looks different if the rebound slips or margins stay closer to the latest 10.0% quarter.
current expectations imply EPS rising from $2.14 to $2.75 while revenue moves from $11.8B to $12B
Med
Cyclical business with real leverage
$4.9B in long-term debt and a B+ balance sheet are manageable. They also mean you should not treat this like a recession-proof compounder. If volumes soften, the balance sheet matters more than the narrative.
$4.9B debt equals 12% of capital
A forced slowdown in the weak category already touches a business that grew only 0.9% last year, and the stock still trades at 29.8x earnings. The cushion is thinner than it looks.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Whether revenue does more than drift from $11.8B to $12B
That increase is small. If 2026 only clears the bar by inches, the multiple still has a lot of explaining to do.
Risk
Building envelope demand
The latest read was a 12% decline from a year ago tied to weak residential roofing demand. If that does not stabilize, the rest of the company has to work harder.
Earnings
The jump from $2.14 to $2.75 eps
That is the earnings bridge the market is underwriting. Miss it, and 29.8x trailing earnings stops looking patient.
Trend
Whether the 10.0% quarter was the trough or the new normal
The page shows a 25.0% operating margin headline and a 10.0% latest-quarter margin. That spread is the whole operating debate.
Analyst Rankings
risk profile
average
Stability score 3. In human-speak: middle of the pack. Not a bunker stock, not a blow-up candidate.
earnings setup
rebound needed
Forward earnings imply a better year than the last one. In human-speak: analysts are giving management one more chance to show acceleration.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 184 buyers vs. 93 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$56
$98
$64
Current price
$77
Target midpoint · +21% from current · 3-5yr high: $105 (+65% · 13% ann'l return)
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