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what it is
Alpha Metallurgical mines and sells coal, mostly the steelmaking kind, from operations in Virginia and West Virginia.
how it gets paid
Last year Alpha Metallurgical made $2.1B in revenue. Met coal sales was the main engine at $1.58B, or 75% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 28.0% last year. Revenue jumped 205% vs. prior year in the latest quarter from the provided SEC data.
what just happened
The latest quarter showed $1.6B in revenue, but earnings still came in negative, which is the whole AMR story right now.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$14.28 fy2024 eps est
$3B fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 48/100 — below average
What they do
Alpha Metallurgical mines and sells coal, mostly the steelmaking kind, from operations in Virginia and West Virginia.
This is a logistics-and-scale business, not a brand business. AMR runs 15 underground mines, 9 surface mines, and 8 preparation plants, plus owns 65% of Dominion Terminal Associates in Newport News. That means if you need export-ready coal, the hard part is already built.
How they make money
$2.1B
annual revenue · their business grew -28.0% last year
Met coal sales
$1.58B
24.0%
CAPP thermal coal sales
$0.31B
35.0%
Export terminal and logistics
$0.08B
flat
Coal preparation and other
$0.13B
10.0%
The products that matter
mines and sells steelmaking coal
Metallurgical Coal
$2.13B trailing revenue
it's the core story: $2.13B in trailing revenue for a company valued at $2.42B. when met coal pricing moves, the equity usually follows.
the thesis
secondary coal exposure
Virginia Thermal Coal
data thin here
this business exists, but the snapshot does not break out separate revenue or profit. that tells you something by itself: you still own AMR first as a metallurgical coal stock.
not the driver
Key numbers
$14.28
2024 EPS est.
EPS → profit per share → so what: this is down from $49.30 in 2023, which tells you the earnings peak is gone for now.
2.9%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after operating costs → so what: even with billions in sales, the core business was underwater.
$3M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over years → so what: AMR is lightly levered and less likely to get crushed by interest costs.
11.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money used in the business → so what: decent, but not enough to hide a commodity downturn.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $3M (0% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for AMR right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The latest quarter showed $1.6B in revenue, but earnings still came in negative, which is the whole AMR story right now.
Revenue jumped 205% vs. prior year in the latest quarter from the provided SEC data, yet EPS was still -$3.41. Sales recovered faster than profits, which tells you pricing and costs are still fighting.
$1.6B
revenue
$3.41
eps
2.9%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was EPS of -$3.41, because revenue strength means very little when the quarter still loses money.
source: company earnings report, 2024
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is metallurgical coal benchmark pricing.
med
Metallurgical Coal Price Volatility
Your main exposure is still one commodity. A competitor warning on coal prices already triggered a 7.5% single-day drop, and the company just posted a 28% revenue decline.
This reaches essentially 100% of the current $2.1B revenue base and makes a 75.5x earnings multiple look even less forgiving if pricing weakens again.
med
Low Earnings Visibility
A 5 / 100 earnings predictability score is the market's way of saying the next few quarters are hard to model with confidence. Commodity names can look cheap and expensive inside the same cycle.
If earnings stay weak, the stock keeps looking expensive on profits. If earnings jump, the multiple compresses fast without the business becoming safer.
med
Concentrated Holder Pressure
BlackRock held 14.58% as of June 2024. When one holder owns that much of a mid-cap commodity stock, flows matter almost as much as fundamentals in the short run.
A large holder trimming can pressure the share price before coal benchmarks change enough to show up in reported numbers.
A weaker coal market hits the whole setup at once — revenue, earnings, and the recovery case holding up that 75.5x multiple.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
price trigger
The next major move in met coal benchmarks
This stock does not need a complicated dashboard. If coal pricing turns up, the earnings debate changes. If it turns down again, the bear case writes itself.
trend check
Whether revenue stops shrinking
The current run rate is $2.1B after a 28% drop. Stabilization matters more than storytelling here.
risk check
Any fresh guidance warning from peers
A competitor warning already sent the stock down 7.5% in one day. In this group, peer commentary is not background noise.
balance-sheet check
Whether low debt stays low
Just $3M of long-term debt is a real cushion. If that changes while pricing stays weak, the whole quality argument gets thinner.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
This sits near the bottom of the range. in human-speak, analysts do not see a clean, steady earnings path.
risk rank
3
That is roughly middle of the pack on safety. The balance sheet is decent. The commodity exposure is the catch.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for AMR is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$192
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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