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what it is
It moves gas, handles water, and gets paid because drillers need the same pipes and pumps every day.
how it gets paid
Last year Antero Midstream made $1.2B in revenue. Gathering pipelines was the main engine at $0.46B, or 38% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.4% last year. Revenues are projected at roughly $1.23 billion, reflecting incremental volume growth from antero’s development activity and additional well connections.
what just happened
The quarter got weird: consensus says AM earned only $0.11 versus a $0.25 estimate, even while other reported figures look much stronger.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
19.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
5.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 59/100 — below average
What they do
It moves gas, handles water, and gets paid because drillers need the same pipes and pumps every day.
This business wins by already being there. Antero Resources owns 29.1% of the company and relies on its pipes, compression, processing, and water network in the Marcellus and Utica, so your alternative is rebuilding the whole system from scratch. That shows up in a 54.2% operating margin and a 48.5% net margin, which is what hard-to-replace infrastructure looks like in dollars.
How they make money
$1.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +7.4% last year
Gathering pipelines
$0.46B
Compression services
$0.32B
Processing and fractionation
$0.22B
Fresh water delivery
$0.12B
Wastewater handling
$0.08B
The products that matter
gathers and processes gas volumes
gathering and processing
$1.2B revenue
it's the whole business: all $1.2B of revenue runs through this operation, and the company still posted a ~48.5% net margin on the same feed. if volumes hold, the payout story holds.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
54.2%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the system → so what: this asset base throws off real cash before financing decisions.
5.0%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → your annual cash payout at today's price → so what: you are getting paid while you wait for modest growth.
$3.1B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money the business owes over years → so what: rates still matter even for a steady midstream operator.
18.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → so what: AM earns more from its assets than most utilities-like income names.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- long-term debt $3.1B (25% of capital)
- net profit margin 48.5% — keeps 48 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 44% — $0.44 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AM 3 years ago → it's now worth $22,650.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter got weird: consensus says AM earned only $0.11 versus a $0.25 estimate, even while other reported figures look much stronger.
Feeds disagree on EPS for the same window: one line shows about $0.11 versus a $0.25 estimate (the headline miss), while another EDGAR-linked column cites about $0.75 for a quarter with $891M revenue. That $891M quarterly revenue line does not reconcile as simple consolidated math against the ~$1.2B full-year total in the segment bridge above—same mapping problem as EPS, not a fourth-grade annualization. Quarterly history also shows other prints near $0.24–$0.26. Quiet part out loud: your problem is not just the result—it is which EPS definition and which period you are looking at.
$891M
rev (q · alt. feed)
$0.11
eps (street line)
54.2%
op margin (co.)
the number that mattered
The 56% earnings miss versus consensus matters most because this stock is priced for steadiness, not drama.
-
capital spending remained restrained late in the year, and interest expense should continue to trend lower following recent refinancing activity.
-
we expect 2026 to be another year of measured growth.revenues are projected at roughly $1.23 billion, reflecting incremental volume growth from antero’s development activity and additional well connections.
-
earnings per share are estimated at about $1.15 for the year.importantly, capital requirements remain modest relative to cash generation, allowing the company to continue prioritizing dividends, debt reduction, and share repurchases. management has indicated that excess cash is likely to be split between buybacks and balance sheet improvement, a sensible approach given current debt leverage levels and the longlived nature of the asset base.
-
antero’s appeal rests on durability rather than rapid growth.
-
through 2029-2031, earnings should advance at a steady pace as volumes rise gradually.the systems’s position in the core of the marcellus shale, combined with extensive water infrastructure and dry-gas assets, provides some optionality without requiring aggressive investment. for incomeoriented investors, the distribution appears well supported by recurring cash flows, with room for modest growth over time. while upside from new demand sources such as power generation or data centers may take time to materialize, the existing business alone offers a reliable foundation for long-term cash returns.
source: EDGAR filing and consensus data, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is antero resources concentration.
high
one producer drives the whole throughput story
you are not buying a diversified toll-road network. you are buying infrastructure wrapped around antero resources. if that producer slows drilling or volumes flatten, AM feels it fast.
impact: essentially all of the current $1.2B revenue base runs through this relationship.
med
natural gas weakness eventually shows up in midstream
midstream sounds insulated because contracts sit between the well and the end market. the catch is simple: less drilling means less volume, and less volume means the ~48.5% net margin gets harder to defend.
impact: weaker volume expectations would pressure revenue growth, valuation, and the comfort investors attach to a 5.0% yield.
med
$3.1B of debt keeps rates in the story
AM's balance sheet is workable, but it is not something you ignore. refinancing helped. if financing costs stop easing, part of the earnings leverage investors just enjoyed disappears.
impact: $3.1B in long-term debt equals 25% of capital, so higher interest expense would eat into dividend coverage and equity upside.
a slowdown at antero resources would expose essentially all of AM's $1.2B revenue stream, because this business is concentrated by design rather than diversified by choice.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
antero resources activity
this is the operating heartbeat. if producer activity slows, the entire $1.2B revenue base stops looking as stable as the current multiple implies.
earnings
next earnings report
watch whether AM stays on track for roughly $1.23B revenue and about $1.15 EPS. that is the market's steadiness test.
trend
interest expense
recent refinancing helped. if interest expense keeps easing, more operating profit reaches you instead of bondholders.
capital
dividend versus debt reduction
this stock wins on discipline more than ambition. if excess cash stops going to the payout or the balance sheet, the thesis changes tone fast.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — analysts do not see a strong near-term signal either way. in human-speak, this looks steady, not urgent.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical market risk. not a bunker stock, not a rollercoaster.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not signaling anything dramatic right now.
earnings predictability
25 / 100
low predictability means the quarterly path can get messy even if the long-term income case stays intact.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
206 buyers vs. 224 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$16
$27
$20
current price
$22
target midpoint · +11% from current · 3-5yr high: $35 (+75% · 18% ann'l return)
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