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what it is
Autoliv makes the airbags, seat belts, and steering wheels that carmakers need to keep people alive in crashes.
how it gets paid
Last year Autoliv made $10.8B in revenue. airbags & inflators was the main engine at $4.86B, or 45% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.1% last year. Adjusted earnings rose to $3.19 per share, a slight improvement from the 2025 figure, and capping the third-straight year of earnings increases of over 20%.
what just happened
Autoliv posted $3.19 in Q4 EPS, beating the $3.00 estimate as sales reached $2.82B.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
12.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 67/100 — average
What they do
Autoliv makes the airbags, seat belts, and steering wheels that carmakers need to keep people alive in crashes.
Autoliv wins because carmakers do not casually switch the company making their airbags and seat belts. It has 62 factories and 25 crash-test tracks worldwide, which is scale you feel in deadlines, testing, and supply reliability. Web sources also describe Autoliv as the global leader with about 44% share in passive safety, which means your customer is usually choosing the incumbent, not the experiment.
How they make money
$10.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.1% last year
airbags & inflators
$4.86B
seatbelts
$3.78B
steering wheels
$1.62B
safety seats & other safety products
$0.54B
The products that matter
occupant protection systems
Airbag Systems
$6.5B revenue · 44% global share
it is the biggest piece of the business at $6.5B, and the 44% global share explains why autoliv gets designed into so many vehicle platforms.
category leader
restraint systems
Seatbelts
$3.2B revenue · 1 in 3 new cars
their seatbelts go into 1 out of every 3 new vehicles globally. this is a scale business long before it is a brand story.
global scale
integrated safety hardware
Steering Wheels & Other
$1.1B revenue · flat growth
this $1.1B segment is smaller and flat, which makes it support crew, not the engine of the thesis.
smaller segment
Key numbers
12.4x
trailing p/e
P/E ratio → how many dollars you pay for each dollar of profit → so what: you are paying a market-light multiple for a business with improving earnings.
18.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from money put into the business → so what: Autoliv turns every $1 invested into $0.18 of operating return, which is strong for an auto supplier.
3.4%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to you each year as a share of stock price → so what: you are getting paid to wait while the market decides whether this deserves a higher multiple.
44%
top customers
Customer concentration → how much revenue depends on a few buyers → so what: five customers control nearly half the sales base.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $1.7B (16% of capital)
- net profit margin 7.7% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 27% — $0.27 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ALV 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,440.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Autoliv posted $3.19 in Q4 EPS, beating the $3.00 estimate as sales reached $2.82B.
Value Line says Q4 sales rose nearly 8% from the prior year. The catch is that operating margin fell by more than a percentage point to 15.8%, so you got growth with a reminder that this is still an auto supplier.
$2.82B
revenue
$3.19
eps
18.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
$3.19 EPS mattered most because it beat the $3.00 estimate by 6.33%, showing Autoliv is still out-earning expectations even with margin pressure.
-
autoliv posted another year of solid financial improvements in 2025.
-
in the year's fourth quarter, sales grew to $2.82 billion, or by nearly 8% from the prior-year level and above our forecast.for the year, sales were higher across all four regions, led by mid-single digit rises (excluding currency) throughout asian markets.
-
in autoliv's larger americas and europe divisions, sales rose about 3% and 1%, respectively.
-
although the quarter's operating margin declined more than a percentage point, to 15.8%, that compares to last year's lofty level.
-
adjusted earnings rose to $3.19 per share, a slight improvement from the 2025 figure, and capping the third-straight year of earnings increases of over 20% at autoliv.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is raw-material inflation landing in a flat-volume year.
high
Raw Material Cost Inflation
steel, chemicals, and electronics account for about 60% of cost of goods sold. a 10% price spike could erase $150M from operating cash flow.
could cut the $1.2B operating cash flow target by about 12.5%
med
Auto Production Slowdown
management expects 0% organic sales growth in 2026 on an $11B base, citing production pressure. that is not a collapse. it is a reminder that autoliv still rides the vehicle cycle.
stalls top-line momentum and puts even more pressure on margin delivery
low
Safety Standard Redesign Costs
new airbag or seatbelt standards could force redesign work across core systems, and a 7.3% net margin does not leave endless room for surprise costs.
compliance expense may reduce earnings by 1–3%
a 10% spike in input costs could cut $150M from the $1.2B operating cash flow target. on a business guiding for 0% organic sales growth, that is not background noise.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
guidance
2026 organic sales: flat
management guided to 0% organic sales growth for 2026. watch Q1 results in april 2026 to see whether flat stays flat or slips lower.
margin
10.5–11% adjusted operating margin
this is the key operating promise for 2026. if they miss it, the market will read that as weaker pricing power or weaker cost control.
costs
raw-material inflation
steel, chemicals, and electronics already account for about 60% of cost of goods sold. in a flat-volume year, cost inflation gets exposed fast.
flow
institutions have been net buyers
160 buyers versus 125 sellers in 4Q2025 is supportive. if that flips while guidance stays flat, sentiment loses one of its few tail supports.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak: they like the setup more than the headline guide implies.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical risk profile. not a bunker stock, not a blowup candidate.
chart momentum
top 5%
technical score 1 — the highest rating. the chart is stronger than the sales outlook.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings can be harder to predict, which fits a supplier exposed to production volumes, input costs, and program timing.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 160 buyers vs. 125 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 48.8M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$83
$145
$122
current price
$114
target midpoint · 6% from current · 3-5yr high: $220 (+80% · 17% ann'l return)
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