Start here if you're new
what it is
Allstate sells car, home, and life insurance, then tries to price risk better than the storms and drivers hitting its customers.
how it gets paid
Last year Allstate made $67.7B in revenue.
why it's growing
FY2025 total revenues rose about 5.6% to ~$67.7B. Q4 adjusted EPS of $14.31 vs. ~$8.01 consensus was a huge beat — underwriting and pricing finally showed through.
what just happened
Allstate printed $14.31 in fourth-quarter EPS, crushing the $8.01 consensus by 78.65%.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
5.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
15.8% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 69/100 — average
What they do
Allstate sells car, home, and life insurance, then tries to price risk better than the storms and drivers hitting its customers.
Allstate wins because it is huge, local, and still standing when smaller insurers get punched in the face by bad underwriting. It has about 54,000 employees and just $7.5 billion of long-term debt, which is 12% of capital. Debt-to-capital → how much of the business is financed by borrowing → so what: when losses spike, you want the insurer with room to keep writing policies.
How they make money
$67.7B
annual revenue · FY2025 total revenues grew ~+5.6% YoY
total revenue
$67.7B
+5.6%
The products that matter
underwrites personal insurance
Auto, Home, and Life Insurance
$67.7B revenue · ~+5.6% FY growth
this $67.7B top line is consolidated Allstate revenue — your read-through is property-liability combined ratio, earned premium growth, and investment income, not a fake triple-digit growth rate.
the whole story
Key numbers
$25.20
2027 eps est
Forward estimates sit below FY2025’s adjusted print — the market expects mean reversion after an unusually strong underwriting year.
5.9x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → how many dollars you pay for one dollar of profit → so what: you are paying a bargain multiple for a company with a 15% return on equity.
$7.5B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: at just 12% of capital, Allstate has room to absorb bad underwriting years without leaning on the balance sheet.
15.8%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from the money running the business → so what: most insurers would love mid-teens returns with a 0.9 beta.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 85 / 100
- long-term debt $7.5B (12% of capital)
- return on equity 15% — $0.15 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ALL 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,300.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Allstate printed $14.31 in fourth-quarter EPS, crushing the $8.01 consensus by 78.65%.
Q4 total revenues ~$17.3B, up ~5.1% YoY. Property-Liability net premiums earned rose ~6.1% to ~$14.8B; combined ratio 72.9. FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS ~$34.83 vs. ~$16.99 in 2024 per recap materials.
$17.3B
revenue
$14.31
eps
5.0%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
The 78.65% EPS beat mattered because it showed pricing is finally outrunning claims, which is the whole job in insurance.
-
allstate ended a strong 2025 with stellar december-quarter results.looking at it with more granularity, earnings from operations, which exclude capital gains and losses from investments, clocked in at a whopping $14.31, which was nearly double the previous-year figure.
-
the strong showing was broad-based.
-
the propertyliability segment registered a 6% increase in net premiums earned to nearly $14.8 billion, while the combined ratio checked in at 72.9% for the period.this implies that allstate made more than $27 in pretax profit for every $100 insured in that segment, which was markedly above the p/c industry average.
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results were also strong at the auto segment, which posted a nearly 3% increase in net premiums earned and a combined ratio of 80.8%.the homeowners’ segment also chipped in, registering healthy results, though this segment represents a smaller piece of the overall pie. we look for earnings per share to take a step back this year, though this requires a bit more color. the insurer was firing on all cylinders last year, with contributions coming from all market segments and income statement line items. the combined ratio was particularly strong, which resulted in an underwriting margin that was markedly above the industry average and allstate’s historical mean.
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hence, it would be unlikely that the company would be able to match these results this year.
source: Allstate Q4 & FY2025 materials (newsroom) · Feb 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk for your ALL position is the 72.9% combined ratio proving unsustainably good.
high
earnings normalization
FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS was ~$34.83, but FY2026 is estimated near $25 — mean reversion risk.
that's the market telling you a big part of the rebound may not repeat. if underwriting margins cool, the stock's 5.9x trailing multiple is less of a bargain than it looks.
high
litigation overhang
a US judge approved a $25M class-action settlement in may 2024, and other legal proceedings remain pending.
$25M is small against $67.7B of revenue, but recurring legal noise can pressure valuation because it adds uncertainty to a business investors already see as hard to forecast.
Expected FY2026 EPS near $25 versus ~$34.83 adjusted in FY2025 is the real warning label. the legal bill is manageable. the bigger risk is that peak underwriting margins fade.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
whether FY2026 really drops to $25.00 EPS
the stock can handle slower growth. it does not want a collapse from ~$35 adjusted EPS to something worse than current estimates.
metric
combined ratio trend
72.9% was exceptional. if that starts drifting up, you'll know the rebound story is losing force.
metric
premium growth rate
property-liability premiums were up 6% to $14.8B. you want pricing and volume to keep working together, not take turns.
metric
institutional flow
three straight quarters of net buying help. if that flips while estimates fall, the market is telling you the easy part of the rerating is over.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — the stock is moving with the broader market. in human-speak: no big short-term signal.
risk profile
safer than most
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. the balance sheet looks sturdier than the earnings line.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
very low predictability. for insurers, one clean underwriting year can make the numbers look neater than the business really is.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 694 buyers vs. 612 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$175
$341
$208
current price
$258
target midpoint · +24% from current · 3-5yr high: $385 (+85% · 18% ann'l return)
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