Start here if you're new
what it is
Alaska Air sells seats, loyalty points, and cargo space across Alaska, Horizon, and Hawaiian’s combined airline network.
how it gets paid
Last year Alaska Air made $14.2B in revenue. domestic passenger was the main engine at $10.0B, or 71% of sales.
why it's growing
Reported revenue rose ~21% to ~$14.2B as Hawaiian is fully in the consolidated year; on a pro forma basis the company cited total operating revenue up ~3% vs. pro forma 2024 — always label which “growth” you mean.
what just happened
Q4 2025 revenue ~$3.6B. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.43; GAAP diluted EPS $0.18 — compare any “vs. consensus” line to the same GAAP or adjusted definition.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
21.6x trailing p/e — priced about right
16.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 60/100 — average
What they do
Alaska Air sells seats, loyalty points, and cargo space across Alaska, Horizon, and Hawaiian’s combined airline network.
Airlines usually sell a commodity: one seat from A to B. Alaska is better positioned than most because it now spans 141 destinations, including 29 international routes, with 413 aircraft across Alaska, Horizon, and Hawaiian. That gives you more places to fill seats and more chances to sell Mileage Plan points, which made up 7% of 2025 revenue.
How they make money
$14.2B
annual revenue · reported growth ~+21% YoY (Hawaiian consolidation); pro forma ~+3%
domestic passenger
$10.0B
international passenger
$2.6B
mileage plan
$1.0B
cargo & other
$0.6B
The products that matter
scheduled passenger air travel
Passenger Airline
$12.6B · 89% of sales
it's the core $12.6B business and nearly 90% of total sales. if passenger demand or operations wobble, almost everything else on this page matters less.
89% of sales
frequent flyer loyalty program
Mileage Plan
$1.0B · 7% of sales
this $1.0B program is only 7% of sales, but it gives you a steadier revenue stream than ticket demand alone. in airline terms, that's the civilized part of the business.
recurring revenue
Key numbers
$73
18-month target
Target price → one fair-value estimate → so what: $73 is $20.36 above today's $52.64, or about 39% upside.
2.1%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit kept after running the airline → so what: Alaska made very little on each sales dollar despite strong demand.
16.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money tied up in the business → so what: Alaska is getting decent returns from a very asset-heavy industry.
$4.8B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money the airline owes over many years → so what: debt equals 44% of capital, so downturns get expensive fast.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $4.8B (44% of capital)
- net profit margin 7.6% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 28% — $0.28 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — return on equity looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ALK 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,820.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Q4 2025 revenue ~$3.6B · adjusted EPS $0.43 · GAAP EPS $0.18
Full-year 2025 revenue ~$14.24B. Reported YoY revenue growth is high-teens to ~21% because of Hawaiian consolidation timing; pro forma operating revenue growth was much lower (~3% per recap). Adjusted pretax margin in Q4 ~1.8% in one recap — thin, like most airlines.
$3.6B
Q4 revenue
$0.43
adj. EPS
$14.2B
FY revenue
the number that mattered
Separating reported growth from pro forma growth matters — otherwise you confuse merger accounting with demand.
-
alaska air group is seeing solid demand.
-
so far in 2026, the company is reporting good travel demand from businesses and consumers.
-
recent domestic economic growth has been positive, auguring well for airline receipts to year-end.the carrier is building up its asset base, inclusive of alaska airlines, horizon air, and hawaiian airlines, to offer expanded regional and international routes.
-
passenger and cargo volume ought to trend higher.credit card affiliations, appealing in-flight services, a loyalty program, and premium seating are supportive of the top line.
-
last year, revenues rose over 21%, to $14.24 billion.
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the risk here is not abstract airline volatility. it is very specific: alaska paid $1.9B for hawaiian, carries $4.8B of long-term debt, and just posted full-year EPS of $2.44 while guiding to a very wide $3.50–$6.50 range.
med
the $1.9B hawaiian deal has to do more than make the route map bigger
you now own a more complex airline with more labor, fleet, and scheduling moving parts. scale helps only if costs and operations cooperate.
so what: this is the main reason the stock is not getting full credit for the larger revenue base.
med
management's full-year EPS range is $3.50–$6.50
a $3 spread is not precision. it tells you management sees multiple possible earnings outcomes and cannot narrow them much yet.
so what: when visibility is this loose, the stock can swing on every update about fares, costs, and merger execution.
med
$4.8B of long-term debt is manageable until margins slip
debt equals 44% of capital. with a 5.9% net margin, alaska does not need a catastrophe to feel pressure — just a stretch of weaker execution.
so what: debt narrows the margin for error in an already cyclical business.
med
revenue growth has not shown up cleanly in profit yet
revenue rose +21.3% to $14.2B, but full-year EPS fell from $4.87 to $2.44 and quarterly margin was just 0.7%.
so what: if revenue keeps rising while EPS stays messy, the market stops treating this as a recovery and starts treating it as a value trap.
between $4.8B in long-term debt, a $1.9B acquisition, and a full-year EPS range of $3.50–$6.50, this is a wider-outcome story than the headline revenue growth suggests.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
full-year EPS landing point
management gave a $3.50–$6.50 range. where alaska lands inside that band matters more than whether revenue looks healthy.
trend
profit conversion after the revenue jump
revenue grew +21.3% to $14.2B while full-year EPS fell to $2.44. you want to see those lines stop moving in opposite directions.
risk
integration execution
the hawaiian acquisition cost $1.9B. if the combination adds complexity faster than earnings, the rerating case weakens fast.
next report
q1 loss guidance
the company guided to -$1.50 to -$0.50 EPS for Q1. that is where the market will start scoring the merger before full-year numbers arrive.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they think the setup looks better than the last set of earnings suggests.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits in the middle of the pack on risk, which is about as good as airlines usually manage.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart says investors still want proof before they believe the bigger revenue story.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
earnings predictability is weak. translation: surprises are part of the ticket price here.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 203 buyers vs. 243 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$40
$106
$53
current price
$73
target midpoint · +39% from current · 3-5yr high: $110 (+110% · 20% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive