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what it is
Alector is trying to treat brain diseases by fixing immune system problems inside the brain.
how it gets paid
FY2025 collaboration revenue ~$21.0M vs. ~$100.6M in FY2024—milestone timing, not product sales.
why growth slowed
Full-year revenue fell ~79% YoY on lower collaboration inflows. Q4 2025 revenue ~$6.2M still beat thin consensus even though it was far below the year-ago quarter’s milestone spike.
what just happened
Q4 2025: revenue ~$6.2M; GAAP loss ~$0.34/sh vs. ~$0.39 loss expected (narrower loss than consensus in vendor recaps).
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$1.23 fy2024 eps est
$101M fy2024 rev est
n/a operating margin
xvary composite: 33/100 — weak
What they do
Alector is trying to treat brain diseases by fixing immune system problems inside the brain.
This is a science bet, not a sales machine. Alector has 238 employees and a focused immuno-neurology pipeline, which means your upside lives or dies on a few brain-disease programs instead of a sprawling portfolio. The edge is specialization. The problem is specialization cuts both ways when annual revenue is only $21M.
How they make money
$21M
annual revenue · revenue declined -79.1% last year
total revenue
$21M
79.1%
The products that matter
lead pipeline program
AL101
IND expected Q4 2026 or Q1 2027
This is your lead internal asset, and the timeline says you are still waiting for an IND filing in late 2026 or early 2027. That is early-stage biotech in one sentence.
preclinical to early clinical
license and collaboration revenue
strategic partnerships
$21M annual revenue
This brought in $21M last year after falling 79.1%. You are not looking at product-market fit. You are looking at milestone accounting.
declining
broader development engine
clinical pipeline
no marketed products
The pipeline is the whole story because there is still zero commercial revenue from approved drugs. If the science works, the stock can rerate. If it does not, cash becomes the last line of defense.
binary
Key numbers
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. Jargon: operating margin → plain English: profit after running the business → so what: Alector is nowhere near self-funding.
$21M
ttm revenue
That is the entire current revenue base, which is tiny against a roughly $243M market cap.
-$1.23
2024 EPS est
Jargon: EPS → plain English: profit or loss per share → so what: losses are still the core output here.
$29M
long-term debt
Debt is only 11% of capital, so the immediate issue is not leverage. It is the business model.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $29M (11% of capital)
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ALEC right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat revenue / EPS vs. street
Q4 2025 collaboration revenue ~$6.2M; GAAP EPS loss ~$0.34 vs. ~$0.39 loss expected (vendor recap).
FY2025 revenue ~$21.0M vs. ~$100.6M FY2024—do not read QoQ % moves without remembering the year-ago milestone stack. Cash ~$256M at year-end 2025 per release.
~$6.2M
Q4 revenue
~$(0.34)
Q4 GAAP EPS
~$256M
cash (Dec 2025)
the number that mattered
Milestone cadence drives both the beat and the ugly YoY compares—pair every % to the same prior-year quarter.
source: Alector Q4 & FY2025 results
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a heavily dilutive shelf offering layered on top of an early-stage pipeline.
med
up to $400M of potential dilution
Alector filed to sell up to $400M in securities against a market cap of about $243M. That gap is the story.
If management taps the shelf aggressively, your ownership stake shrinks fast. This is not theoretical. It is already on file.
med
the pipeline is still pre-commercial
There are no marketed products, and the lead internal program AL101 is still targeting an IND in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. You are early, and early-stage biotech is where failure rates earn their reputation.
If the science slips or disappoints, there is no operating business underneath to absorb the damage.
med
revenue is thin and partner-dependent
Annual revenue fell 79.1% to $21M, and that revenue comes from partnerships and collaborations rather than recurring product demand.
If milestone timing slips again, the income statement stays weak while cash burn does the real talking.
A forced equity raise would hit ownership. A trial setback would hit the thesis. With only $21M of current revenue, there is not much operating cushion in between.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
any use of the $400M shelf
This is the highest-stakes disclosure on the page. A full draw would be enormous relative to the current $243M market cap.
calendar
AL101 IND timing
Expected Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. That is the next real internal pipeline checkpoint you can underwrite.
metric
cash versus revenue
$256M of cash against just $21M of annual revenue tells you the balance sheet still matters more than operating momentum.
trend
institutional behavior after setbacks
Institutions own 85.8% of the float. If a clinical or financing headline goes wrong, that concentration can turn volatility into a landslide.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
25 / 100
Low predictability means milestone timing can swing results hard. In human-speak, the quarterly numbers are not a steady business read.
beta
1.55
Beta measures how much a stock moves versus the market. At 1.55, ALEC has historically moved more than the index when sentiment shifts.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ALEC is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$2
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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