XVARY Composite Score
48
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Air Lease buys jets, rents them to airlines, and sometimes sells the planes when the math gets better.
How it gets paid
Last year Air Lease made $3.0B in revenue.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 12% last year. Net income includes a ~$736M non-recurring Russian-fleet insurance recovery—compare adjusted margins for normalized ops.
What just happened
FY2025 revenue ~$3,015.7M; Q4 ~$820.4M.
At a Glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.1% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$3.33 fy2024 eps est
XVARY composite: 48/100 — below average
What They Do
Air Lease buys jets, rents them to airlines, and sometimes sells the planes when the math gets better.
If your airline needs planes now, you cannot call Boeing and ask time to move faster. Air Lease sits in that gap. The SMBC-led take-private is ~$65/sh in cash (~$7.4B equity value) with enterprise value ~$38B including assumed debt (Sumitomo Sept 2025)—a thin headcount shop carrying a fleet balance sheet, not a people business.
How They Make Money
$3.0B
annual revenue · their business grew ~+12% last year
total revenue
$3.0B
~+12%
The Products That Matter
Long-term commercial aircraft leases
Aircraft Leasing
majority of ~$3.02B FY2025 revenue · long-dated leases
Aircraft leasing still drives the vast majority of consolidated revenue. Long contracts make the cash flows steadier than airline headlines usually imply—segment tables in the 10-K split rental vs. sales.
core revenue
Fleet rotation and asset sales
Aircraft Sales & Trading
non-core slice of ~$3.02B total · lumpy quarter to quarter
This is capital recycling. Air Lease sells older aircraft to refresh the fleet and free capacity for newer deliveries. Useful, but not the reason you own the name.
capital recycling
Key Numbers
$65.00
cash buyout
That is the signed takeout price, so your upside from $64.17 is only about $0.83 a share.
7.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → price divided by earnings → so what: the market prices this like something is wrong or temporary.
$17.9B
long-term debt
Debt → borrowed money → so what: the balance sheet is doing most of the heavy lifting here.
~24%
adj. pre-tax margin (FY2025)
FY2025 GAAP margins are lifted by a large non-recurring Russian-fleet recovery (~$736M)—adjusted pre-tax margin ~23.8% ex-that item per the release.
Financial Health
B
Strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $17.9B (71% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
record FY revenue
FY2025 revenue ~$3,015.7M; Q4 ~$820.4M (+15.1% YoY).
Net income includes a ~$736M non-recurring Russian-fleet insurance recovery—compare adjusted margins for normalized ops. The $65.00 cash merger still caps most holders’ upside if the H1 2026 close holds.
~$3.02B
FY2025 revenue
~$820M
Q4 revenue
~24%
adj. pre-tax margin
the number that mattered
The $65.00 deal price matters more than any quarter, because it caps your likely payoff if the transaction closes.
source: Air Lease FY2025 results · Sumitomo acquisition terms
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What Could Go Wrong
This setup is unusually concentrated. One deal price, two manufacturers, and a debt-heavy model do most of the explaining.
Med
The deal breaks
If shareholders or regulators stop the transaction, the 1.3% spread disappears and the market has to price AL on standalone terms again. Then the conversation snaps back to 7.0x earnings, 10 / 100 predictability, and ~$17.9B of long-term debt on this page.
The catch: you are collecting a small spread while underwriting a much larger repricing risk.
Med
Boeing and Airbus deliver late
Air Lease cannot lease aircraft it has not received. Delayed deliveries push revenue recognition to the right and make the ~10% consolidated growth path harder to sustain, even if airline demand stays healthy.
This hits the bulk of revenue tied to leasing, not some side business.
Med
Funding costs squeeze the spread
This model works because borrowing costs sit below lease returns. With $19.7B of total debt and $17.9B of long-term debt, higher funding costs do not stay theoretical for long.
Thick adjusted margins help. They do not make interest expense disappear.
Med
Airline credit or aircraft values soften
Air Lease owns expensive metal. If a customer weakens or resale values slip, the backup plan on older aircraft gets worse and the capital recycling story loses some of its flexibility.
That matters more in a fleet business than in a fee business because the assets sit on your balance sheet.
the math is simple: you are picking up a 1.3% spread while underwriting a standalone company with $3.02B of revenue, 36.1% net margin, and $19.7B of debt.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Biggest catalyst
$65-per-share merger close
This is the whole near-term story. At $64.17, the stock is trading for a $0.83 gap to cash consideration. If the deal closes, that is what you collect. If it breaks, the market goes back to pricing aircraft leasing risk.
Next earnings
Next earnings — est. May 4–6, 2026
Watch delivery timing, lease placement, and any update on the closing timeline. Analysts expect 14.1% earnings growth in 2026. In human-speak: the street still sees decent operating momentum under the merger wrapper.
Risk to watch
Boeing and Airbus delivery schedules
Lease revenue begins when aircraft arrive. Manufacturer delays are not a footnote here—they directly control how fast the leasing-heavy revenue engine can grow.
Signal from the street
Consensus target: $62.48
That sits 2.6% below the current price. Put differently: analysts think the standalone case is worth less than the merger case. The market agrees, which is why the spread exists at all.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
10 / 100
Predictability means how consistent earnings have been over time. A 10 out of 100 is very low. In human-speak, this is a real business with real assets, but the reported numbers can swing with aircraft sales, financing costs, and delivery timing.
consensus price target
$62.48
That is 2.6% below the current stock price and below the $65 deal price. The quiet part: analysts are telling you the merger case is richer than the standalone case.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for AL is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$64
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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