XVARY Composite Score
66
/ 100
Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
AJG helps companies buy insurance, manage risk, and run employee benefits.
How it gets paid
Last year A.J. Gallagher & made $13.8B in revenue. Insurance brokerage was the main engine at $7.3B, or 52% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 21% last year. Reported revenue ~$3.59B in Q4 2025. Full‑year revenue ~$13.78B.
What just happened
Q4 2025: adjusted diluted EPS ~$2.38; GAAP diluted EPS ~$0.58.
At a Glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
GAAP vs adjusted EPS gap — read the reconciliation after big deals
24.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 66/100 — average
What They Do
AJG helps companies buy insurance, manage risk, and run employee benefits.
You do not switch brokers like streaming apps. You move contracts, people, and coverage. AJG has tens of thousands of employees post‑major deals and ~$13.8B in 2025 revenue, so it can serve clients global boutiques cannot. Small brokers sell attention. AJG sells scale.
How They Make Money
$13.8B
annual revenue · 2025 revenue grew ~+21% vs. 2024
Insurance brokerage
$7.3B
Employee benefits
$3.9B
Risk management
$2.7B
The Products That Matter
Corporate insurance placement and risk advisory
Brokerage & Risk Services
~$13.8B revenue (FY2025)
Core insurance brokerage and fee income scaled with AssuredPartners and the broader roll‑up; organic growth is a separate line item in management commentary.
core engine
Key Numbers
$330
18-mo target
That is 28% above $258.52. You are paying for a business the market still prices below the target.
$10.69
FY'25 adj. EPS
Adjusted EPS is what sell‑side models track; GAAP EPS is depressed by amortization from serial acquisitions.
10.5%
return on capital
You get 10.5 cents of operating profit for each dollar invested. That tells you the machine is efficient, not just big.
1.2%
dividend yield
You collect $1.20 a year for each $100 you own. That is small, but it proves the board is not allergic to cash.
Financial Health
A
Strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $12.1B (15% of capital)
- net profit margin ~11% — net margin approx. (FY2025; verify in 10‑K)
- return on equity 13% — $0.13 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in AJG 3 years ago → it's now worth $13530.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
beat estimates
Q4 2025: adjusted diluted EPS ~$2.38 (beat ~$2.35); GAAP diluted EPS ~$0.58.
Reported revenue ~$3.59B in Q4 2025 (+~34% YoY, acquisition‑aided). Full‑year revenue ~$13.78B; full‑year adjusted EPS ~$10.69. GAAP EPS is not comparable quarter‑to‑quarter until purchase‑accounting noise normalizes.
$3.59B
Q4 revenue
$2.38
adj. EPS
$0.58
GAAP EPS
the number that mattered
Adjusted vs GAAP — after AssuredPartners‑scale deals, the reconciliation matters more than the headline GAAP print.
source: Arthur J. Gallagher Q4 & FY2025 results — investor.ajg.com · corroborated with earnings recap
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is acquisition integration breaking the roll-up math.
High
Acquisition integration risk
Gallagher has completed 600+ acquisitions. That is the growth machine and the main execution risk in the same sentence. If newly bought brokers take longer to integrate or produce weaker margins, the roll-up story stops looking clean.
with the stock near ~24x trailing earnings and revenue up ~21% mostly deal‑aided, you do not have much room for serial integration mistakes
Med
Commercial insurance pricing slowdown
Brokers like rising premiums because commissions often rise with them. If commercial pricing softens, revenue growth can cool even if client retention stays healthy.
that would pressure the growth assumptions sitting behind a $66B market cap and a forward setup already priced for steadiness
Low
Distribution and benefits regulation
Gallagher avoids underwriting risk, but it still operates as a regulated middleman in insurance and benefits. Rule changes can raise compliance costs, slow placements, or make parts of the advisory model less efficient.
extra friction would hit margin in a business that earned 21.4% net margin last year
The clean version: if acquisitions stop compounding, insurance pricing cools, or regulation adds enough drag, AJG stops looking like a steady compounder and starts looking like a slower broker with a premium multiple.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Organic growth versus acquired growth
2025 showed ~21% revenue growth. The next question is how much came from the existing book versus another acquisition. That split tells you whether the machine is compounding or just shopping.
Risk
Margin after the 10.7% quarter
Quarterly margin was 10.7% versus a 21.4% full-year net margin. You want that gap to be timing. You do not want it to be the new normal.
Calendar
Next two earnings reports
One soft quarter is noise. Two or three make a pattern. If the next reports keep showing margin pressure, the premium multiple loses its easiest defense.
Trend
Commercial insurance pricing cycle
When premiums rise, broker commissions often rise with them. If pricing cools, AJG can still grow — just not with the same easy tailwind built into recent numbers.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
below average
Momentum score 4. in human-speak, analysts do not expect AJG to beat most stocks over the next year.
risk profile
safer than most
Stability score 2. That means lower fundamental risk than roughly 80% of stocks, even if the wording in some feeds makes it sound worse than it is.
chart momentum
bottom 5%
Technical score 5 is the weakest rating. The chart looks worse than the business right now.
earnings predictability
85 / 100
Management tends to produce reliable numbers. For a broker trading at 24.0x earnings, reliability is part of the product.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 610 buyers vs. 606 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$224
$435
$259
Current price
$330
Target midpoint · +28% from current · 3-5yr high: $485 (+90% · 17% ann'l return)
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