Start here if you're new
what it is
AIG sells insurance to businesses and consumers, then invests the float while waiting to pay claims.
how it gets paid
Last year L Grp made $26.8B in revenue. North American Commercial was the main engine at $10.4B, or 39% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.7% last year. We expect the north american commercial lines to show further gains in underwriting income due to growth in net premiums written and better loss ratios.
what just happened
Q4 2025 (reported Feb. 10, 2026): GAAP diluted EPS $1.35 vs. $1.43 prior-year quarter; adjusted after-tax income $1.96/share vs. $1.30 prior-year quarter. “Beat/miss” depends on whether your feed uses GAAP vs. adjusted EPS.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
10.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.8% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 69/100 — average
What they do
AIG sells insurance to businesses and consumers, then invests the float while waiting to pay claims.
Insurance is a trust business. AIG serves customers in more than 200 countries and jurisdictions with 22,000 employees, and that scale matters when a global company wants one carrier instead of five. Balance sheet grade A → strong finances → so what: when clients buy a promise that may pay years later, strength sells.
How they make money
$26.8B
annual revenue · their business grew -1.7% last year
North American Commercial
$10.4B
International Commercial
$8.6B
Global Personal
$4.3B
Net investment income
$2.8B
Corebridge dividend income
$0.7B
The products that matter
commercial risk underwriting
North American Commercial
~$10.7B · 40% of revenue
it is the largest business line at roughly $10.7B. if pricing slips here, the effect shows up fast in margins, reserve quality, and your whole AIG thesis.
40% of revenue
overseas commercial insurance
International Commercial
~$9.4B · 35% of revenue
this ~$9.4B segment gives AIG scale outside the U.S. Put it next to North America and you get ~75% of revenue tied to commercial underwriting.
~75% commercial mix
consumer insurance products
Global Personal Insurance
~$5.4B · 20% of revenue
at roughly $5.4B, this is still meaningful. The catch is that it does not drive the main debate. The stock moves on commercial underwriting quality, not this segment alone.
20% of revenue
Key numbers
$8.00
FY2026 EPS
EPS → profit per share → so what: if AIG gets to $8.00, your stock is trading at about 9.1x that number, which is cheap for a global insurer.
10.4x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with profit → so what: you are paying $10.40 for each $1 of trailing earnings, below many large financials.
2.5%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders each year → so what: you get paid while waiting for the cleanup story to work.
9.8%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from money invested in the business → so what: AIG is decent, not elite, at turning capital into earnings.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AIG 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,100.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
GAAP vs adj.
Q4 2025: GAAP diluted EPS $1.35 (down slightly YoY); adjusted after-tax income $1.96/share (+51% YoY).
Feb. 10, 2026 release (year ended Dec. 31, 2025): General Insurance underwriting income $670M (+48% YoY); combined ratio 88.8%; Global Commercial net premiums written $4.5B (+4% YoY). Full-year GAAP diluted EPS $5.43; adjusted (AATI) $7.09/share (+43% YoY). Ignore legacy feed artifacts like “$20B revenue / triple-digit EPS growth”—those did not foot to this print.
$1.35
Q4 GAAP EPS
$1.96
Q4 adj. AATI/sh
88.8%
GI combined ratio
the number that mattered
Underwriting + investment together drive the rerating story—watch combined ratio and whether adjusted EPS trends match the screen you actually trade on.
-
american international group is well positioned for another solid year in 2026.we expect the north american commercial lines to show further gains in underwriting income due to growth in net premiums written and better loss ratios.
-
results should also benefit from several recent strategic moves.
-
overall, we forecast growth in earnings per share of nearly 15%, to $8.00. Management has been busy on the corporate front.late last year, the company entered into an agreement to acquire the renewal rights for a majority of everest group ltd's (nyse: eg) worldwide retail insurance portfolios, representing about $2 billion of premiums.
-
aig started underwriting these policies on january 1st.
-
the company also plans to acquire a 35% equity interest in convex group, a leading global specialty insurer, and a 9.9% stake in onex corporation (tse: onex), a global asset manager, for approximately $2.7 billion.
sources: Business Wire (Feb. 10, 2026) · aig.com
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is catastrophe losses in commercial property and specialty lines.
high
catastrophe losses
AIG writes large commercial risks. A bad hurricane season or a cluster of big events can turn a clean quarter into a messy one fast.
with earnings predictability at 30/100 and return on capital at 9.8%, there is not much room for underwriting misses.
med
reserve and pricing discipline
if AIG underprices business today, the problem shows up later through weaker underwriting results or reserve strengthening. Insurance companies often look fine right until they do not.
that would hit the 22.5% projected EPS growth story directly and keep the stock trapped at a low multiple.
med
deal execution on the $2.7B capital deployment
the Convex and Onex stakes are supposed to improve specialty exposure and optionality. If they add complexity without better returns, investors get the old AIG headache back.
you are not paying for empire building at 10.4x earnings. You are paying for cleaner, simpler returns.
low
investment income volatility
insurers live on invested float. Market losses or weaker reinvestment conditions can pressure book value and income even when underwriting holds up.
at $26.8B of annual revenue, even the smaller investment bucket still matters because the business is part underwriter, part asset allocator.
an A balance sheet lowers solvency risk. It does not remove earnings volatility. With roughly 75% of revenue tied to commercial lines, one bad underwriting stretch hits the part of AIG that matters most.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
watch
next earnings quality check
AIG just printed $4.08 in quarterly EPS while the 2026 outlook sits around $8.00 for the full year. You do not need another fireworks quarter. You need proof that underwriting improvement holds without one-time help.
metric
commercial mix staying dominant
North American and international commercial lines make up roughly 75% of revenue. If that core book loses pricing discipline, the whole value case gets less interesting fast.
calendar
first read on the $2B Everest renewal rights
AIG began underwriting those policies on January 1. The question is not whether premium volume rises. The question is whether the new volume lands at acceptable returns.
trend
institutional selling stopping
three straight quarters of net selling tells you big money is still waiting for cleaner proof. If that trend breaks, the market is starting to believe the rebuilt story instead of just admiring the multiple.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
analysts do not view this as a smooth earnings story. in human-speak, you should expect insurer-style volatility, not consumer-staples consistency.
risk rank
2
that places AIG in the safer part of the market on balance-sheet risk. translated: the company looks sturdier than the earnings noise makes it feel.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 417 buyers vs. 570 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.5B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$59
$101
$73
current price
$80
target midpoint · +10% from current · 3-5yr high: $145 (+100% · 20% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive