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what it is
Assured Guaranty insures bonds and loans, so borrowers pay less and investors get a backstop if things break.
how it gets paid
FY2025 GAAP total revenues were about $1.11B (earned premiums, net investment income, and other consolidated lines)—financial guarantors are not “$0 revenue” businesses.
what just happened
Q4 2025: GAAP net income ~$2.53/diluted share; adjusted operating income ~$2.32/share (non-GAAP). Street “beats” are often quoted on the adjusted operating line—label which metric you mean.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
10.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
5.2% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 58/100 — below average
What they do
Assured Guaranty insures bonds and loans, so borrowers pay less and investors get a backstop if things break.
This is a trust business with receipts. AGO carries an A balance sheet grade, a 75 out of 100 price stability score, and only 360 employees. That combination matters because buyers of bond insurance want claims-paying muscle, not a marketing slogan, and smaller rivals cannot fake $1.7 billion of long-term debt capacity and a 7% return on equity for long.
How they make money
~$1.11B
FY2025 GAAP total revenues (premiums + NII + other items per consolidated statements)
Net earned premiums (FY2025)
~$380M
core insurance earnings base
Net investment income (FY2025)
~$359M
large, but not “sales” in a retail sense
The products that matter
guarantees municipal and structured debt
Financial guaranty insurance
core business · the legacy engine
This is the business you actually own: insuring bond payments and collecting premiums, fees, and investment income. The catch is that earnings predictability sits at 40/100, so claim expectations and deal flow can move results around fast.
core engine
life and annuity reinsurance
Assured Life Re
$158M venture
Management has put $158M behind this business to diversify beyond municipal guarantees. It is small next to the core franchise, which is the point: diversification matters here because one line of insurance does not deserve blind faith forever.
new bet
shrinks the share count
Share repurchases
$500M authorization
At a roughly $4B market cap, a $500M buyback is material. That is about 12% of the company at today's size, so per-share value can rise even if the operating business only grinds ahead.
capital return
Key numbers
$7.30
FY2026 EPS
At $90.59, the stock trades at about 12.4 times that forward estimate. Plain English: FY2025 GAAP was ~$10.26/sh—stack forward EPS on the same GAAP vs adjusted labels your screen uses.
5.2%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit earned on the money tied up in the business. So what: AGO is profitable, but not rich enough to force a premium valuation.
$1.7B
long-term debt
Debt equals 29% of capital. So what: the balance sheet is still solid, but this is not a debt-free sleep-easy story.
1.6%
dividend yield
The dividend pays you something, but this is mostly a capital return and valuation story, not an income stock.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- long-term debt $1.7B (29% of capital)
- return on equity 7% — $0.07 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AGO 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,290.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
strong FY2025 print
Q4 2025 GAAP net ~$2.53/share; FY2025 GAAP $10.26/share. Q4 GAAP total revenues were ~$277M—that is a quarter, not the year.
FY2025 adjusted operating income was $9.08/share (non-GAAP) vs $7.11 in FY2024 per the same release. Full-year GAAP net income $503M ($10.26/sh). Jan. 2026: closed ~$158M cash acquisition of Warwick Re, renamed Assured Life Re (8-K / press).
~$277M
Q4 2025 GAAP total revenues
$10.26
FY2025 GAAP diluted EPS
$9.08
FY2025 adj. operating EPS
the number that mattered
FY2025 GAAP $10.26 anchors valuation; Q4 $277M revenue shows the quarter-to-quarter mix of premiums, NII, and mark-to-market items still swings the GAAP top line.
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assured guaranty just concluded a somewhat choppy 2025. (the reinsurance provider was set to report full-year financials in late february.) during the first nine months, gross written premiums (gwp) and the present value of new business production (pvp) dropped 23% and 31%, respectively, from the same period in 2024, but rebounded 23% and 44% in the recent third quarter.
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likewise, net earned premiums pulled back 9% through the first three quarters, but the decline narrowed to 3% in the september term.industry fundamentals for insurance and reinsurance products have been a mixed bag of late, and that trend will probably continue in 2026.
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on the plus side, net investment income increased 9% during the first three quarters, and the pace accelerated to 15% in the most recent period, owing to good returns on ago’s fixed-income portfolio.
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for full-year 2025, the filing print was FY2025 adjusted operating income $9.08/share (non-GAAP) vs $7.11 in FY2024, alongside GAAP diluted EPS $10.26—ignore stale “$8.45” placeholders that pre-date the final release.
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market conditions for the insurance and reinsurance sectors may remain murky in the near term.
sources: Business Wire (Feb. 26, 2026) · assuredguaranty.com
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is municipal credit stress forcing AGO to pay claims.
med
Municipal default wave
If cities, transit systems, utilities, or other public issuers stop paying, AGO has to honor the guarantee. That is not a side case. That is the business model.
The impact lands on the exact things supporting the stock now: capital, confidence, and the room to keep buying back shares.
med
Weak new business turns this into runoff
Gross written premiums fell 23% and present value of new business production fell 31% through the first nine months of 2025. One rebound quarter helps. It does not settle the question.
If production stays below 2024 levels, AGO looks less like a living franchise and more like a shrinking book with a buyback attached.
med
Capital rules get tighter
Bond insurers live under capital requirements for a reason. If regulators demand more capital against insured exposure, management has less room to write business and less room to retire stock.
That would pressure the buyback story directly. A $500M authorization matters less if the balance sheet has to play defense.
This risk stack exposes the whole thesis: the cheap multiple works if losses stay manageable, production stops shrinking, and capital keeps funding repurchases.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the key watch item
watch whether new business keeps recovering or whether buybacks become the whole story
A $500M repurchase can do real work for EPS. But if gross written premiums and new business production stay below 2024 levels after that third-quarter rebound, you own capital return plus credit exposure, not much operating growth.
trend
net investment income needs to keep carrying part of the load
It rose 9% through the first three quarters and 15% in the most recent period. If that tail support fades while underwriting stays soft, earnings get less forgiving.
risk
claims experience matters more than any clean revenue chart
This is an insurance promise business. One credit event can matter more than several calm quarters, so keep your eyes on insured credit quality and any sign capital gets defensive.
calendar
next earnings need to show the gap between underwriting and per-share earnings is not widening
The 2025 story worked because adjusted operating income per share rose to $9.08 even while production looked uneven. You want the next update to show that was discipline, not a one-year trick.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
40 / 100
In human-speak: you can get long stretches of calm trading and still run into an ugly insurance quarter. This is not a smooth compounding story.
price stability
75 / 100
The stock price has been steadier than the earnings line. Translation: the market has treated AGO like a cautious value name, not like a panic button.
balance sheet grade
A
That is a strong grade for a business selling guarantees. You are buying credibility first and growth second.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 144 buyers vs. 183 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 43.0M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$74
$121
$91
current price
$98
target midpoint · +8% from current · 3-5yr high: $155 (+70% · 15% ann'l return)
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