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what it is
Farmer Mac funds farm and rural loans, packages them into securities, and earns fees for making that machine keep moving.
how it gets paid
FY2025 total revenues on a GAAP basis were about $410M (not $1.6B—do not confuse guarantee volume with income-statement revenue). Net interest income was about $391M, up ~10% vs. prior year per the Feb. 19, 2026 release.
why it's growing
FY2025 total revenues grew about +13% vs. FY2024 on the same GAAP revenue definition used in the earnings tables (~$410M vs. ~$362M).
what just happened
Q4 2025 revenue ~$108M and diluted EPS $3.71 (GAAP) per Farmer Mac’s Feb. 19, 2026 results—not a $1.2B quarter.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
90/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
~10.7x trailing p/e (illustrative) — verify live
4.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
4.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 42/100 — below average
What they do
Farmer Mac funds farm and rural loans, packages them into securities, and earns fees for making that machine keep moving.
Farmer Mac is federally chartered, stockholder-owned, and built for one narrow job: rural credit. Plain English: it has a government-shaped lane and private capital to fill it. You are not betting on 191 employees outmuscling JPMorgan. You are betting that a niche lender with $19.1 billion of long-term debt and public sponsorship keeps getting first call in an awkward market.
How they make money
~$410M
FY2025 GAAP total revenues · ~+13% vs. ~$362M in FY2024
Net effective spread (non-GAAP component)
~$383M
record · +13% vs. FY2024
Guarantee & commitment fees + other GAAP revenue lines
~$27M
see FY2025 tables
revenue bridge: Farmer Mac FY2025 earnings tables (PR Newswire, Feb. 19, 2026)
The products that matter
purchases and guarantees farm loans
Agricultural finance
inside $33.4B outstanding volume
this is the core business: buying agricultural mortgages and rural credit exposures, then turning them into liquidity for lenders. the snapshot gives $33.4B of total outstanding business volume, but not a segment split.
core activity
funds essential rural projects
Rural infrastructure finance
part of the same $33.4B platform
Farmer Mac also finances broadband, power, utilities, and renewable projects. that matters because it broadens the business beyond pure farm lending, even if this snapshot does not break out the exact dollars.
diversifier
guarantees and securitizes credit
Guarantee and funding model
supports the same $33.4B book
The economics come from net effective spread and guarantee fees on a large guaranteed book—not from pretending quarterly revenue is measured in billions of GAAP dollars.
capital-light math
Key numbers
$33.4B
outstanding business volume
This is the balance-sheet-throughput number Farmer Mac highlights alongside earnings—compare it to ~$410M of GAAP revenues, not to confused “$1.6B revenue” screen artifacts.
~10.7x
trailing p/e (illustrative)
~$178 price ÷ ~$16.62 FY2025 diluted EPS ≈ low double digits—recalculate live against your data vendor’s diluted share count.
4.2%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → your cash payout relative to the stock price → so what: you are paid while you wait, but the payout sits on top of a leveraged balance sheet.
13.3%
Tier 1 capital ratio
Farmer Mac reported a 13.3% Tier 1 capital ratio and ~$1.7B total core capital as of Dec 31, 2025—use regulatory capital, not fake “93% operating margin” labels.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $19.1B (93% of capital)
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for AGM right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Q4 2025 GAAP revenue ~$108M; diluted EPS $3.71. FY2025 diluted EPS $16.62 on net income ~$182.5M.
FY2025 total revenues were ~$410M vs. ~$362M in FY2024 on the same GAAP definition. Core EPS (non-GAAP) was $16.66 with ~7% growth vs. prior year per the Feb. 19, 2026 release.
~$108M
Q4 2025 revenue
$3.71
Q4 diluted EPS
$16.62
FY diluted EPS
the number that mattered
Net effective spread hit a record ~$383M in 2025—this is a spread-and-guarantee-fee lender, not a “$1.2B quarterly revenue” retailer.
sources: Farmer Mac FY2025 results (PR Newswire, Feb. 19, 2026) · farmermac.com/investors
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What could go wrong
The risk picture is not abstract. You own a lender tied to farm credit, rural project credit, and wholesale funding. The combination works when credit stays clean and funding stays available. It gets uncomfortable fast when either one slips.
med
credit stress across agricultural and rural infrastructure loans
Farmer Mac exists to finance rural America. If farm borrowers or project borrowers weaken, credit quality weakens with them. That is the most direct threat to a $33.4B outstanding business volume platform.
If losses rise, the record-earnings streak stops being the story. Provisioning and capital protection become the story.
med
funding and leverage pressure
$19.1B of long-term debt equals 93% of capital. For a lender, leverage is part of the model. At this level, it is also the reason the stock does not get the same valuation as cleaner balance-sheet compounders.
A funding shock does not need to be dramatic to matter. Higher funding costs or tighter access would pressure the economics behind that 93% operating margin.
med
slow growth becomes the whole story
GAAP revenues grew about +13% FY2025 vs. FY2024 while diluted EPS was roughly flat ($16.62 vs. $16.44). Cheap works when core earnings keep climbing; it stops working if spread compression or credit surprises break the streak.
You do not need a crisis here. You just need growth to flatten while leverage stays high.
You are getting a 4.2% yield and a low-double-digit P/E because leverage plus rural-credit cyclicality is doing a lot of the storytelling.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
core earnings versus revenue
Revenue grew 0.5% while core earnings grew 7% to $182.9M. If that gap keeps widening, the thesis holds. If both numbers flatten, the cheap multiple stops looking interesting.
risk watch
credit quality in farm and project lending
You are lending into rural America at scale. Watch for any sign that losses, delinquencies, or borrower stress start climbing. This business is steady until credit says otherwise.
calendar watch
the next dividend increase
Fifteen straight annual raises have become part of AGM's identity. If that cadence slows, income investors will notice before anyone writes a note about it.
trend watch
whether $33.4B outstanding volume keeps expanding
This is a volume-and-spread business. If outstanding business volume grows while earnings keep setting records, you have operating proof. If volume stalls, growth gets even harder to defend.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
90 / 100
This score means the earnings pattern has been unusually consistent. In human-speak: this company tends to do what it says it will do.
risk rank
4
Risk rank is a stability score, not a promise. A 4 says this stock ranks safer than only about 20% of stocks in the dataset. The earnings are steadier than the balance sheet looks.
price stability
70 / 100
A 70 price stability score says the shares have been less erratic than many small caps. That's useful if you own it for income, but it does not erase credit risk underneath the surface.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for AGM is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$179
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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