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what it is
It helps doctors manage senior care for Medicare patients.
how it gets paid
FY2025 consolidated revenue was ~$5.93B: medical services revenue ~$5.92B plus other operating revenue ~$11M (thousands in the Feb. 25, 2026 materials). CMS ACO / capitated partner economics also show a separate unconsolidated revenue column (~$1.69B medical services in the supplemental)—that does not all roll into the same GAAP consolidated top line.
why growth slowed
FY2025 revenue fell ~2.1% while medical margin went sharply negative—cost trend and market exits mattered more than any imaginary triple-digit growth rate.
what just happened
Use Q4 2025 ~$1.57B revenue and ~$189M net loss as the latest quarter anchor—not the old $4.4B / −$0.27 mash-up.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
0.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
-$0.59 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
FY2025 adjusted EBITDA loss ~$296M
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
It helps doctors manage senior care for Medicare patients.
You're buying contracts, not clinics. FY2025 reporting pointed to ~625,000 total platform members (~511,000 Medicare Advantage and ~114,000 ACO REACH / fee-for-service lives) at year-end 2025 per the Feb. 25, 2026 release—verify exact definitions in the filing tables.
How they make money
$5.9B
annual revenue · their business grew -2.1% last year
Medical services revenue (consolidated)
~$5.92B
FY2025 · GAAP
Other operating revenue
~$11M
FY2025 · GAAP
CMS ACO models (unconsolidated, supplemental)
~$1.69B
FY2025 medical services · not additive to $5.93B GAAP total
The products that matter
capitated senior-care platform (consolidated)
Medical services revenue
~$5.92B · ~100% of GAAP revenue
The consolidated income statement is almost entirely medical services revenue (~$5.92B of ~$5.93B FY2025). When medical expense runs hot, this line cannot hide it—Q4 2025 medical margin was negative ~$74M per the release.
GAAP top line
ACO / partner economics
Unconsolidated CMS models
~$1.69B supplemental medical revenue
Supplemental tables show large unconsolidated CMS ACO medical services revenue (~$1.69B FY2025) that does not simply add to the $5.93B consolidated total—equity-method and consolidation rules matter for how you read “revenue.”
read the footnotes
Key numbers
$5.9B
annual revenue
That is a lot of sales for a $249M equity value. The market is paying for turnaround risk, not growth glamour.
$249M
market cap
A business with $5.9B of revenue is priced like a rescue job.
~$(57)M
FY2025 medical margin
Negative medical margin is the operational heart of the FY2025 miss—revenue scale did not translate to underwriting profit.
~511K
MA members (YE2025)
~511,000 Medicare Advantage members and ~114,000 other platform lives (~625k total) per the FY2025 release—membership is the denominator for medical-cost risk.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $2M (1% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for AGL right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Q4 2025 revenue ~$1.57B (up ~3% vs. Q4 2024); Q4 net loss ~$189M.
FY2025 revenue ~$5.93B (−~2%) and net loss ~$391M per the Feb. 25, 2026 press materials; FY2025 medical margin was negative ~$57M (negative ~$74M in Q4 alone). The old “204% growth / $4.4B quarter” block was an internal inconsistency, not the filed FY2025 story.
~$1.57B
Q4 2025 revenue
~$(189)M
Q4 2025 net loss
~$391M
FY2025 net loss
the number that mattered
Medical-cost trend and market exits drove FY2025 losses while revenue stayed enormous—underwriting discipline matters more than top-line bragging rights.
sources: agilon health FY2025 results (Business Wire / Nasdaq, Feb. 25, 2026) · investors.agilon.com
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What could go wrong
The top risk is medical costs staying above reimbursement long enough to kill the 2026 break-even plan.
med
medical-cost trend stays hot
Management is guiding to a 7% net cost trend in 2026. For a company built on managing care costs, that is the number that matters.
If the trend stays elevated, a $5.93B revenue base can still produce losses like the $391M hit from last year.
med
break-even target slips
The turnaround pitch now leans on break-even adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Miss that, and the current equity story loses its main support.
At $0.36, the stock is already pricing a lot of skepticism. Another reset would likely keep that skepticism in place.
med
reverse split and listing pressure
The stock is below $1 and the company has proposed a reverse split to maintain its NYSE listing.
Even if listing is preserved, sub-$1 trading is a signal. It narrows the shareholder base and makes rebuilding trust harder.
med
securities litigation overhang
A shareholder class action alleges securities-law violations, with a March 2, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline.
The legal bill may not be the biggest number here. The bigger issue is management attention leaving the turnaround to fight the past.
When a healthcare platform loses $391M on $5.93B of revenue, even a modest miss on care-cost assumptions matters.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
2026 net cost trend
Management's 7% guide is the operating heartbeat. If that number drifts higher, the break-even story gets thinner fast.
calendar
March 2, 2026 lawsuit deadline
That lead plaintiff deadline will shape how long the securities case stays an overhang.
trend
first signs of break-even execution
The next few quarters need to show losses narrowing against the 2026 adjusted EBITDA promise. Hope alone does not re-rate a stock.
risk
reverse split follow-through
Below $1, listing compliance becomes part of the thesis. If the company stumbles here, liquidity gets worse before operations get better.
Analyst rankings
coverage read
thin
There is not enough clean ranking detail in this snapshot to lean on analyst sentiment. In human-speak, the numbers matter more than the notes.
earnings visibility
low
A company targeting break-even after a $391M loss does not offer smooth forecasting. Treat precision here with suspicion.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for AGL is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$0
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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