XVARY Composite Score
47
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Agios makes rare-disease and cancer drugs, then waits for approvals long enough to turn science into revenue.
How it gets paid
Last year Agios Pharma made $36.5M in revenue. Product revenue, net was the main engine at $36.5M, or 100% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 36% last year. FY2024 total revenue ~$36.5M with $11.64 diluted EPS driven by non-recurring gains.
What just happened
Q3 2025: PYRUKYND net revenue $12.9M; diluted EPS $ —nine-month revenue $34.1M is YTD, not one quarter.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
43.7% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
$11.64 fy2024 eps est
~$36.5M fy2024 total rev (GAAP)
XVARY composite: 47/100 — below average
What They Do
Agios makes rare-disease and cancer drugs, then waits for approvals long enough to turn science into revenue.
This is not a scale story. It is a time story. Long-term debt is just $26M, or 2% of capital, which means your pipeline gets more shots before the balance sheet starts asking for rent. With 488 employees and a B+ balance sheet grade, Agios can keep funding rare-disease programs that bigger companies often ignore.
How They Make Money
$36.5M
FY2024 total revenue (GAAP) · product line ~+36% vs. FY2023
Product revenue, net (FY2024)
$36.5M
vs. $26.8M FY2023
The Products That Matter
Commercial hematology drug
Mitapivat (PYRUKYND)
$36.5M FY2024 · essentially all GAAP revenue
FY2024 revenue was almost entirely PYRUKYND product sales in the GAAP table. if this line disappoints, there is no other commercial engine to hide behind.
100% of revenue
Phase 2 neurology program
AG-946 (SPS program)
H1 2026 · top-line data
its top-line data in the first half of 2026 is the only near-term pipeline catalyst shown in this snapshot. for a $2B company, that's a lot riding on one readout.
binary catalyst
Key Numbers
$11.64
fy2024 diluted EPS (GAAP)
$36.5M
fy2024 revenue
n/a
trailing p/e
n/a
dividend yield
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $26M (2% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
mixed quarter
Q3 2025: PYRUKYND net revenue $12.9M; diluted EPS $(1.78)—nine-month revenue $34.1M is YTD, not one quarter.
FY2024 total revenue ~$36.5M with $11.64 diluted EPS driven by non-recurring gains (per Feb. 13, 2025 release). Q3 2025 diluted EPS $(1.78); nine months ended Sep 30, 2025: total revenue $34.1M, diluted EPS $(5.27) (GlobeNewswire, Oct. 30, 2025).
$12.9M
Q3 2025 PYRUKYND net rev
$(1.78)
Q3 2025 diluted EPS
$34.1M
9M 2025 total rev (YTD)
the number that mattered
Q3 PYRUKYND net revenue $12.9M is the commercial read-through; full-year framing must separate one quarter vs nine-month YTD totals.
sources: Agios Q3 2025 results (GlobeNewswire, Oct. 30, 2025) · FY2024 results (GlobeNewswire, Feb. 13, 2025) · investor.agios.com
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is mitapivat concentration risk.
Med
One drug carries the whole revenue base
Mitapivat accounts for essentially all of the small GAAP revenue base (FY2024 was $36.5M total revenue). If demand slips or expansion stalls, the commercial story weakens immediately.
Revenue exposure: essentially all of the current commercial base
Med
AG-946 is a binary second-act bet
Topline Phase 2 data is due in the first half of 2026. A miss would leave AGIO looking like the same one-product company for longer.
Catalyst risk: the only near-term pipeline readout shown in this snapshot
Med
Street expectations already moved down
Analysts cut the FY2024 revenue estimate by 33% to $37M. That tells you the commercial ramp has less margin for error than the bull case wants.
Estimate risk: lower sales expectations before the business has scale
Med
The stock already trades like a biotech event vehicle
Price stability is 15 / 100, and the 52-week range runs from $22 to $46. You are not getting paid for calm here.
Trading risk: big swings can happen before fundamentals change
100% of the listed commercial revenue and the only near-term pipeline catalyst sit in two assets. For a company valued near $2B, that is a narrow foundation.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Catalyst
AG-946 Phase 2 top-line data
Due in the first half of 2026. If this disappoints, the second-product thesis takes a real hit.
Commercial
PYRUKYND (mitapivat) sales trajectory
FY2024 total revenue was ~$36.5M per filings—still a narrow base. Track quarter-to-quarter PYRUKYND net revenue and operating spend, not a fictional $54M base.
Estimates
Revenue revisions
Street models can diverge from reported GAAP (company reported ~$36.5M FY2024 total revenue). Watch estimate revisions vs actual PYRUKYND uptake.
Volatility
How the stock trades between catalysts
A 15 / 100 price stability score and a $22–$46 range tell you sentiment can move faster than fundamentals.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
10 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not expect clean, repeatable quarters here. expect noise around every print.
risk rank
4
this screens as safer than only 20% of stocks. you are being paid in optionality, not stability.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for AGIO is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$25
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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