Start here if you're new
what it is
AGCO sells farm machines and parts through 2,700 dealers across about 140 countries.
how it gets paid
Last year Agco made $10.1B in revenue. Europe was the main engine at $5.56B, or 55% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 13.5% last year. Output in 2025 was probably down around 15% vs. prior year.
what just happened
AGCO's latest quarter beat on EPS, with $2.17 versus the $1.84 estimate, a 17.93% surprise.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
23.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 67/100 — average
What they do
AGCO sells farm machines and parts through 2,700 dealers across about 140 countries.
AGCO wins with distribution and brand reach, not magic. It sells through 2,700 independent dealers in around 140 countries, so your local farmer can buy the machine and keep it running with parts. That dealer network plus brands like Fendt, Massey Ferguson, and Valtra makes switching painful in real life, especially when Europe still drives 55% of 2024 sales.
How they make money
$10.1B
annual revenue · their business grew -13.5% last year
Europe
$5.56B
North America
$2.32B
South America
$1.11B
Rest of world
$1.11B
The products that matter
farm equipment sales
Europe
$5.6B · 55% of revenue
it's the center of gravity. this region generated $5.6B last year, and management has pointed to stable conditions here as the offset to a slower north american recovery.
core market
farm equipment sales
North America
$2.3B · 23% of revenue
this $2.3B segment is the problem child right now. dealer inventory was running at eight months, which means fresh demand has to fight through a full lot first.
inventory risk
farm equipment sales
South America
$1.1B · 11% of revenue
it's smaller at $1.1B, but it still matters because aligned factory operating levels there give AGCO one less region to fix while north america resets.
supporting market
Key numbers
~3–6%
implied 2026 sales
Guidance is $10.4–$10.7B net sales vs. ~$10.1B in 2025—midpoint implies roughly mid-single-digit growth, not the old “+7.5% vs. +1.0%” pair that contradicted the -13.5% FY2025 print.
23.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by profit → so what: trailing screens mix reported GAAP EPS (~$9.75 FY2025) with adjusted EPS (~$5.28); know which denominator you are using before you annualize the story.
10.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → so what: AGCO is decent, but not elite, for a cyclical manufacturer.
$2.7B
long-term debt
Debt → money owed over time → so what: 24% of capital in debt is manageable, but it matters more when demand is weak.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $2.7B (24% of capital)
- net profit margin 7.0% — keeps 7 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AGCO 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,010.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
AGCO's latest quarter beat on EPS, with $2.17 versus the $1.84 estimate, a 17.93% surprise.
Q4 2025 net sales were about $2.9B (+1.1% vs. the prior-year quarter as reported; adjusted for divestiture/other revenue, sales declined ex-currency per the release). FY2025 net sales were about $10.1B (-13.5%). Adjusted EPS was about $5.28 vs. about $7.50 in 2024; reported GAAP EPS was $9.75 vs. a $(5.69) loss in 2024 because of one-time items—do not blend those lines.
~$2.9B
Q4 net sales
$2.17
eps
25.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the 17.93% EPS beat, because it shows execution improved faster than estimates even while the full-year business stayed under pressure.
-
agco continues to operate amid unfavorable conditions.notwithstanding government support programs, weak crop markets have encouraged farmers to curtail or defer farm equipment purchases. the backdrop has forced the company to reduce production levels, while at the same time invest in technologies intended to ensure long-term growth.
-
output in 2025 was probably down around 15% vs. prior year, with the metric likely more pronounced in north america.
-
all told, 2025 adjusted EPS of about $5.28 landed on net sales of about $10.1 billion, down 13.5%.
-
there is optimism that demand will gradually improve in the new year.
-
the biggest positive factor is relatively modest cyclicality in agco’s biggest market, europe.stable conditions there should help to mitigate a slow recovery in north america, especially in the high horsepower category. during the third-quarter conference call, management noted that dealer inventories in the region were at an unfavorable level of eight months. all told, the company started 2026 continuing rightsizing efforts in north america, while factory operating levels in europe and south america appear to be aligned with retail demand.
sources: AGCO Q4/FY2025 results (PR Newswire, Feb. 5, 2026) · prnewswire.com
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is north american dealer overstock.
med
north america has too much equipment sitting on lots
management called dealer inventory in the region an unfavorable eight months. when channels are full, new orders get pushed out.
North America is a $2.3B business, or 23% of revenue. If dealers stay full, the 2026 recovery case slips with it.
med
weak farm economics can keep demand soft longer than investors want
AGCO already saw FY2025 net sales fall to about $10.1B (-13.5%) and adjusted EPS step down to about $5.28 from about $7.50. this is what a down cycle looks like in the numbers, not just the commentary.
with a 4.8% net margin, there is not a giant earnings cushion if farmers keep deferring equipment purchases.
med
the europe offset matters because europe is the business
stable conditions in europe are currently helping offset the slower north american recovery. that is comforting until europe stops being stable.
Europe generates $5.6B, or 55% of revenue. If that region weakens too, AGCO loses its main shock absorber.
an overstocked $2.3B north american segment plus a 4.8% net margin is a bad combination if 2026 demand improvement arrives late.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
dealer inventory in north america
eight months is the number to watch. if that does not move down, the recovery story stays mostly theoretical.
metric
adjusted EPS versus the ~$5.50–$6.00 guide
management targeted about $5.50–$6.00 adjusted EPS for 2026 off a ~$5.28 FY2025 adjusted base—watch whether execution closes that gap.
calendar
the next management update on 2026 demand
listen for language around gradual improvement versus actual order recovery. words are cheap. dealer lots are not.
trend
europe holding steady
Europe is 55% of revenue. if that region remains stable, it buys AGCO time. if it cracks, the whole story gets harder fast.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think AGCO can outperform most stocks over the next year if the recovery narrative holds.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits in the middle of the pack on risk. not a bunker stock, not a meltdown candidate.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart has been acting better than the business. that happens when investors start pricing the turn early.
earnings predictability
50 / 100
earnings can swing around more than you want. for a cyclical manufacturer, that is another way of saying timing matters.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
219 buyers vs. 190 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 65.6M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$54
$141
$114
current price
$98
target midpoint · 14% from current · 3-5yr high: $205 (+80% · 17% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive