XVARY Composite Score
42
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Affirm lets you split a purchase into smaller payments and gets paid by shoppers, merchants, or both.
How it gets paid
Last year Affirm made ~$3.22B in revenue. total revenue, net was the main engine at ~$3.22B, or 100% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 39% last year. The ~$3.22B FY revenue proves scale; the ~$876M Q4 print proves the latest quarter’s demand.
What just happened
Q4 FY2025: revenue ~$876M and diluted EPS about $0.20.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
498.4x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 42/100 — below average
What They Do
Affirm lets you split a purchase into smaller payments and gets paid by shoppers, merchants, or both.
Affirm wins at the exact moment you hesitate to buy. It turns a painful upfront bill into monthly payments; Q4 FY2025 revenue was about $876M (~+33% vs. the prior-year quarter, per recap headlines) while FY2025 total revenue, net was about $3.22B (+39% vs. fiscal 2024 per the 10-K table). You also avoid late fees, which makes the product feel less punitive than old-school credit.
How They Make Money
~$3.22B
total revenue, net (FY2025, GAAP) · +39% vs. FY2024
total revenue, net (FY2025)
~$3.22B
+39% vs. FY2024
The Products That Matter
Checkout installment lending
Point-of-sale Loans
~$3.22B FY revenue · +39%
Installment and card flows roll into one consolidated revenue line in the 10-K—FY2025 was about $3.22B, +39% vs. FY2024. Scale is the story; concentration in partner GMV mix is the risk.
core engine
Key Numbers
$4.0B
fy2026 revenue
That is roughly ~1.25× today's ~$3.2B FY revenue run-rate if $4.0B is the right forward anchor—still ambitious, but the multiple was wrong when the denominator was $1.1B.
498.4x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → how many years of profit you are paying for. So what: you are paying a luxury multiple for a company that just turned profitable.
~7.9%
Q4 FY25 op. margin
Roughly $69M GAAP operating income on ~$876M revenue in Q4 FY2025 (recap math)—FY2025 still mixes quarters that were underwater, so use quarter vs. year deliberately.
$1.25
fy2026 eps
EPS → earnings per share → profit for each share you own. So what: the stock needs that profit ramp to show up.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- net profit margin 17.5% — keeps 18 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 17% — $0.17 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in AFRM 3 years ago → it's now worth $58040.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
beat estimates
Q4 FY2025 (ended June 30, 2025): revenue ~$876M (~+33% vs. the prior-year quarter) and diluted EPS about $0.20 (recap headlines).
Fiscal 2025 total revenue, net was about $3.22B (+39% vs. fiscal 2024) on the Form 10-K, with full-year GAAP net income about $52.2M after years of losses. The quarter is the first clear “GAAP operating income profitable” milestone management flagged in the annual filing narrative.
~$876M
Q4 revenue
~$0.20
Q4 diluted EPS
~7.9%
Q4 op. margin
the number that mattered
The ~$3.22B FY revenue (+39%) proves scale; the ~$876M Q4 print proves the latest quarter’s demand, not an 80% fiction tied to the wrong baseline.
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Affirm holdings is well on its way to producing record profits in fiscal 2026 (ends june 30th).this payment processing company has found a niche that is resonating with consumers and merchants. it has developed the technology to instantly approve (or deny) retail credit transactions at the point of sale.
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Consumers then pay off the transaction over a few months.
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Unlike many retail credit providers, affirm does not charge late fees or any similar fees.this is appealing to consumers, who are becoming more aware of the various (and often hidden) fees that banks and credit card companies charge.
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Its core strategies are leading to steady volume growth.
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In the september period, for example, the number of active accounts was 24.1 million, up 24% vs. prior year; gross merchandise volume reached $10.8 billion, up 42%; and the number of transactions per account rose 20% to 6.1.
sources: Affirm Form 10-K FY2025 (filed Aug. 28, 2025) · SEC EDGAR · Q4 FY2025 recap: CNBC / BusinessWire (Aug. 28, 2025)
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What Could Go Wrong
The top threat is bnpl credit quality slipping just as affirm starts to look profitable.
Med
Credit losses at the wrong time
Affirm just posted $0.15 in annual EPS and a 16.0% operating margin. That is progress, not a cushion. If delinquencies rise, a lender with a 10.9% net margin can go from profitable to explainable very quickly.
This matters because the valuation is doing no favors. At 498.4x trailing earnings, even a small deterioration in credit performance can hit both earnings and the multiple at the same time.
Med
Investor class action and regulatory scrutiny
The page already flags a class action lawsuit tied to regulatory risk. That's not background noise for a checkout lender. BNPL lives close to consumer-credit regulation, and legal headlines can keep the stock trading on narrative instead of execution.
You are buying a $74.76 stock with a $66 target midpoint. There is not much valuation cushion if legal noise turns into something more expensive.
Med
Competition compresses the checkout economics
Apple, PayPal, and Klarna all want the same merchant relationships. Affirm has distribution with Amazon, Shopify, and Walmart, but that does not make the moat wide. It means the fight is worth having.
If merchants gain bargaining power, the current 4.7% quarterly margin and 16.0% operating margin can narrow before scale has time to save them.
The combined risk picture is simple: this is a fast-growing lender with a first profitable year, a 498.4x trailing p/e, and a target midpoint 12% below the current price. You need growth and clean credit to keep arriving together.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Earnings
Whether the profit line stays positive
A first profitable year is a milestone. The next report needs to show it was the start of a pattern, not a cameo.
Metric
Revenue growth on a bigger base
FY2025 revenue growth was about +39% on ~$3.2B of revenue. If that cadence decelerates sharply, the multiple has farther to fall.
Risk
Class action and bnpl rulemaking
Legal and regulatory updates matter here because they can change sentiment before they change the income statement.
Trend
Credit quality versus margin
Quarterly margin was 4.7%. If underwriting gets worse, this is the number that usually tells you first.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock has more ways to disappoint than impress over the next 12 months.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — this name swings more than most, which fits a stock with a 52-week range of $22–$100.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — no obvious edge from the chart alone. You need the fundamentals to do the talking.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 360 buyers vs. 254 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$24
$107
$75
Current price
$66
Target midpoint · 12% from current · 3-5yr high: $125 (+65% · 9% ann'l return)
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