Start here if you're new
what it is
Aflac sells insurance that pays cash when you get sick or hurt, mostly in Japan and across all 50 U.S. states.
how it gets paid
Last year Aflac made $17.2B in revenue. U.S. supplemental health was the main engine at $4.4B, or 26% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 9.3% last year. Q4 adjusted EPS missed the street on the most-cited recap line (~$1.57 vs. ~$1.62, Markets Insider, Feb. 2026)—vendor consensus levels differ.
what just happened
Q4 adjusted EPS was about $1.57 vs. ~$1.62 consensus on one recap; adjusted revenue was about $4.9B (Yahoo Finance / company materials, Feb. 2026).
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
95/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
14.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.2% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 74/100 — average
What they do
Aflac sells insurance that pays cash when you get sick or hurt, mostly in Japan and across all 50 U.S. states.
Aflac wins by selling the boring insurance people keep when life gets expensive. Japan still made up 55% of adjusted revenue in 2024, which tells you the duck is not just a mascot. Supplemental insurance (extra cash paid when medical bills hit) → money on top of your main health plan → so what: when your costs rise, a small policy gets very hard to cancel.
How they make money
$17.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -9.3% last year
Japan cancer insurance
$4.1B
flat
Japan medical insurance
$3.6B
flat
Japan life insurance
$1.8B
dn
U.S. supplemental health
$4.4B
flat
Investment and other income
$3.3B
dn
The products that matter
cash-pay health and life coverage
Supplemental Insurance
$17.2B revenue
it's the whole $17.2B business, and revenue fell 9.3% last year. this is a mature franchise. the question is durability, not hypergrowth.
entire business
japan distribution engine
Japan
~55% adjusted revenue (2024)
Filings still frame Japan as roughly half of adjusted revenue (the hero line uses the same ~55% lens). Distribution through Japanese banks is the structural advantage—just do not stack a “70%” headline on top of the 55% adjusted-revenue math.
core earnings base
u.s. brand and direct sales
United States
95% brand recognition
the duck did its job. 95% name recognition means customer acquisition starts from familiarity, even if the bigger revenue engine sits overseas.
brand moat
Key numbers
16.2%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money used in the business → so what: Aflac turns a fairly dull insurance model into above-average returns.
13%
return on equity
Return on equity → profit earned on shareholder money → so what: this is strong for an insurer trading at 14.7x earnings.
2.2%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to you each year as a percent of stock price → so what: you get paid while waiting for the stock to close the gap to $128.
$8.7B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: the debt load is just 13% of capital, which is tame for a $58B company.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $8.7B (13% of capital)
- return on equity 13% — $0.13 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AFL 3 years ago → it's now worth $17,190.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Q4 adjusted EPS was $1.57 vs. ~$1.62 consensus (Markets Insider recap), with adjusted revenue about $4.9B.
The quarter was mixed. Wall Street got less profit than expected, but recent operating trends were better earlier in 2025, when third-quarter EPS rose 15.3% to $2.49 and buybacks reduced the share count.
$4.9B
revenue
$1.57
eps
~3%
EPS miss vs. ~$1.62
the number that mattered
The modest EPS miss vs. the ~$1.62 recap line still stings because Aflac is priced partly on predictability—when the “steady insurer” narrative wobbles, multiples compress faster.
-
results for aflac perked up in the third quarter of 2025.
-
earnings per share advanced 15.3%, to $2.49, versus last year's $2.16 figure. (this followed an uninspiring performance during the first half.) that improvement stemmed partially from lower benefits & claims.
-
a rise in both net earned premiums and net investment income also helped.
-
too, the number of diluted shares outstanding dropped.
-
so, the bottom line stands to be about $7.60 per share for the whole year.
sources: Aflac Q4 2025 release · newsroom.aflac.com · recap: Yahoo Finance / Markets Insider (Feb. 2026)
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is yen and japan concentration: filings still put japan at roughly half of adjusted revenue (~55% in the 2024 lens used on this page), so you are not diversified away from tokyo.
med
japan concentration
roughly half of adjusted revenue still comes from japan in recent filings (~55% framing). when that core market slows, the u.s. brand does not fully offset it.
the so-what: this is not geographic diversification. it's one dominant earnings engine with a U.S. brand wrapped around it.
med
yen translation risk
a company earning most of its revenue in japan and reporting to U.S. investors lives with translation noise. the duck does not hedge foreign exchange for you.
even if operations stay fine locally, currency pressure can make headline revenue and earnings look weaker in dollars.
med
cheap for a reason
revenue fell 9.3% last year. if that repeats while fiscal 2026 EPS misses the $8.00 estimate, the 14.7x multiple stops looking conservative and starts looking fair.
a stable insurer gets paid for consistency. if consistency slips, so does the valuation case.
when ~55% adjusted revenue sits in japan and last year's revenue already fell 9.3%, you do not need a catastrophe to pressure the stock — you just need the stability story to crack.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
fiscal 2026 eps vs. $8.00
that is the number the current valuation is leaning on. hit it, and 13.9x forward earnings looks reasonable. miss it, and the stock loses its cheap look.
trend
revenue after the 9.3% decline
one down year is manageable. two in a row would tell you the market's skepticism is about the business, not just the currency.
calendar
next earnings release
you want an update on japan sales, U.S. policy momentum, and whether management still looks like a 95/100 predictability operator.
risk
institutional selling streak
institutions have been net sellers for three straight quarters. if that continues while the stock sits near its high, pay attention to what they may be seeing first.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a normal setup, not a screaming short-term signal.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. that's insurance doing what insurance is supposed to do.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the stock has held up better than most, which is what you expect from a defensive compounder near its 52-week high.
earnings predictability
95 / 100
management usually delivers a narrow range of outcomes. for you, that means fewer plot twists and a clearer valuation case.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 613 buyers vs. 724 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$96
$160
$112
current price
$128
target midpoint · +15% from current · 3-5yr high: $150 (+35% · 10% ann'l return)
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