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what it is
Aeva builds sensors that help cars and robots know where things are and how fast they move.
how it gets paid
FY2025 revenue was $18.1M vs $9.1M in FY2024 (company release). Segment rows below are a proportional schematic until you reconcile to the 10-K tables.
what just happened
Q4 2025 revenue was $5.6M; GAAP net loss was $(0.42)/share in the quarter and $(2.55)/share for FY2025.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
-$5.07 fy2025 eps est
early revenue — $18.1M FY2025
n/a operating margin
2.2 beta
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
Aeva builds sensors that help cars and robots know where things are and how fast they move.
Aeva’s 4D LiDAR is laser mapping plus speed detection. That gives machines more context than a camera. You can see why OEM wins matter when the company is still sub-$20M in annual revenue with hundreds of employees.
How they make money
$18.1M
FY2025 revenue · +~99% vs $9.1M FY2024
Segment $ are a proportional schematic to prior mix — tie out in the 10-K.
Automotive / ADAS
~$8.3M
Defense / autonomy
~$3.8M
Industrial robotics
~$2.4M
Consumer electronics
~$1.8M
Consumer health / security / other
~$1.8M
The products that matter
core 4D lidar hardware
Aeries II 4D LiDAR
$18.1M FY2025 revenue · L3 program SOP cited for 2028
This is the hardware behind the European OEM production award. FY2025 revenue doubled to $18.1M, but the scale case in the release points to a later-decade production ramp (SOP cited in 2028 for that program).
automotive anchor
autonomy software stack
Perception Stack
Level 3 platform support · tied to OEM timelines
The software interprets the sensor data, which is why this is more than a parts story. Monetization still tracks customer SOP and development milestones, not quarterly revenue alone.
attached software
Key numbers
$18.1M
FY2025 sales
Doubled vs FY2024 ($9.1M) per the Feb 26, 2026 release — still tiny vs the equity valuation.
$30–36M
2026 rev guide
Company outlook (~70–100% YoY growth) — execution vs guide is the 2026 test.
n/a
operating margin
FY2025 GAAP operating loss was $127.6M on $18.1M revenue (release) — still deep red at the operating line.
$5M
long debt
Debt is tiny at 1% of capital. The bigger problem is the loss engine, not the balance sheet.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $5M (1% of capital)
Liquidity: cash + marketable securities $121.9M + $125M facility (release).
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for AEVA right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
record FY revenue
Q4 2025 revenue $5.6M; FY2025 $18.1M. GAAP net loss $(0.42)/share in Q4 and $(2.55)/share for the year.
Non-GAAP net loss was $(0.40)/share in Q4 and $(1.75)/share FY2025 (release tables). 2026 revenue outlook $30M–$36M.
$5.6M
Q4 revenue
$(2.55)
FY GAAP EPS
$121.9M
cash + securities
revenue
Doubling FY revenue matters, but GAAP operating loss >$127M shows scale is still mostly in front of the company.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk is the European L3 production program (SOP cited in 2028 in the release) arriving late or smaller than expected. One OEM program still carries an outsized share of the bull case.
med
Program concentration in one automotive ramp
Automotive/ADAS is the largest schematic line on this page inside an $18.1M FY2025 total — most of the narrative still rides on a small number of OEM programs and their SOP timing.
If the program slips, the rest of the company is too small to absorb it cleanly.
med
Negative gross margin means scale is still theoretical
A -3.7% gross margin means each dollar of revenue still loses money before operating expenses. The company can grow and still not get healthier if cost structure does not improve.
This is why the LG Innotek manufacturing angle matters so much. Better production economics are not optional.
med
Valuation already assumes a lot went right
At a $911M market cap, the stock trades at roughly 50x trailing sales and 68.9x book value. Even if 2026 revenue reaches $30M–$36M, you are still looking at roughly 25x–30x sales.
That leaves very little room for mediocre execution. The multiple needs a real production story, not just technical promise.
med
Competition does not wait for you to scale
Aeva is trying to commercialize 4D lidar in a field full of better-known and better-funded peers. When your business is this small, competitive pressure shows up first in pricing and margin, not headlines.
If rivals win programs or compress pricing, the path from $18.1M of revenue to a durable business gets longer.
At today's $911M market cap, even management's $30M–$36M 2026 guide still leaves AEVA priced like a company that has already solved scale.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
q1 2026 earnings
Report due May 13, 2026. The question is simple: does the company still look on track for $30M–$36M in 2026 revenue.
metric
gross margin getting less negative
A move from -3.7% toward positive territory would tell you manufacturing is starting to work. If revenue rises and margin stays negative, the story gets harder.
trend
automotive mix staying dominant
Automotive already contributes about 70% of revenue. You want that segment growing, but you also want proof the business is not just one future program wearing a public ticker.
risk
2028 SOP milestones (per release)
Any delay to the European automaker launch matters immediately because the valuation is pulling future success into the present.
Analyst rankings
risk profile
average
risk rank 3 — typical risk profile — neither especially safe nor risky.
chart momentum
below average
momentum rank 4 — analysts see underperformance risk in the near term.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for AEVA is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$15
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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