Start here if you're new
what it is
AES makes and sells electricity through contracted plants, merchant power assets, regulated utilities, and emerging-market grids across regions that produced 60%, 26%, and 14% of sales.
how it gets paid
Last year Aes made $12.2B in revenue. Contract Generation was the main engine at $4.3B, or 35% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.4% last year. The 17.8% gross margin matters because revenue spikes do not help much if the underlying profitability stays thin.
what just happened
Q4 2025 revenue was about $3.1B (slightly above ~$3.07B consensus). Diluted EPS was $0.81 vs ~$0.68 consensus (GAAP beat in major recap feeds). FY2025 diluted EPS was $1.26 vs $2.36 in FY2024.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
11.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
5.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 56/100 — below average
What they do
AES makes and sells electricity through contracted plants, merchant power assets, regulated utilities, and emerging-market grids across regions that produced 60%, 26%, and 14% of sales.
AES wins by making your power bill boring. Long-term contracts (pre-agreed power sales) → steadier cash flow → so what: margin and geography mix depend on filing definitions — use the 10-K segment tables rather than a single headline margin. You are also buying a global footprint; the 60/26/14 regional split in “what it is” is a model shorthand.
How they make money
$12.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -0.4% last year
Contract Generation
$4.3B
flat
Competitive Supply
$2.4B
dn
Utilities
$3.1B
up
Growth Distribution
$2.4B
up
The products that matter
regulated electric utilities
AES Indiana and AES Ohio
1.1M customers
these utilities serve an aggregate 1.1 million customers and remain under local, state, and federal oversight after closing. that's the steady-cash-flow part of what you own.
regulated base
competitive power generation
Latin America Power
$3.2B · 26% of sales
this business accounts for 26% of sales, or $3.2B in revenue. it adds growth exposure, but it also adds more moving pieces than a pure regulated utility would carry.
growth exposure
signed clean-energy contracts
Corporate renewables pipeline
11.8GW signed
AES says it has 11.8GW of signed agreements with customers including Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft. that's real demand visibility, and it helps explain why private capital showed up.
private-market appeal
Key numbers
73%
debt load
Long-term debt is 73% of capital. Plain English: creditors fund most of the machine, so equity gets squeezed first when results wobble.
28.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: AES keeps about $0.29 from each revenue dollar before interest and taxes.
5.1%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders each year versus stock price → so what: you are being paid while waiting, if the deal timing drags.
$26.8B
long debt
AES has $26.8B of long-term debt against a roughly $10B market cap, which tells you the balance sheet is the real story.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $26.8B (73% of capital)
- net profit margin 13.0% — keeps 13 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity ROE screens vary by quarter vs year — reconcile to FY2025 10-K
FY2025 income statement recap: marketscreener.com
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AES 3 years ago → it's now worth $6,620.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat GAAP EPS (recaps)
Q4 2025 revenue ~$3.1B; diluted EPS $0.81 vs ~$0.68 Street (major earnings recaps).
FY2025 revenue $12,233M and diluted EPS $1.26 (down vs $2.36 FY2024). Adjusted EPS lines and non-GAAP consensus can differ — read the release reconciliation. The Mar 2, 2026 $15.00/sh cash deal (GIP/EQT-led) is the dominant narrative for the equity tape.
$3.1B
Q4 revenue
$0.81
Q4 diluted EPS
$12.2B
FY2025 revenue
the number that mattered
The $15.00/sh cash merger consideration caps the obvious upside; the trade is closing risk vs the last pre-deal print.
-
aes stockholders are to receive $15.00 per share in cash.
-
the transaction represents a 40.3% premium to the 30-day volume weighted average share price prior to july 8, 2025, the final trading day before the first media report of a potential acquisition.the consortium will fund the entirety of the purchase price with equity, and the transaction is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027.
-
aes will likely have enhanced financial flexibility as a private company.the acquisition is led by global infrastructure partners (gip), a blackrock company, together with eqt infrastructure vi and co-investors (see the mar 2, 2026 release). it is designed to support aes’ long-term growth across u.s. regulated utilities and competitive clean energy, plus latin america infrastructure. aes cites 11.8 gw of signed agreements with major technology customers (amazon, meta, microsoft, etc.).
-
the deal is not likely to impact customer rates in aes’ regulated utilities.aes indiana and aes ohio will remain locally operated and managed, regulated utilities, serving an aggregate 1.1 million customers while remaining subject to local, state and federal oversight following closing.
-
given the pending transaction, the outlook rank on aes stock remains suspended.
FY2025 figures (S&P Capital IQ recap): marketscreener.com · M&A: prnewswire.com (Mar 2, 2026)
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What could go wrong
the top threat is the $15.00 take-private failing or slipping materially beyond early 2027.
med
the transaction fails to close
AES is supposed to be acquired for $15.00 per share in cash. At the current $14.21 stock price, the market is already treating most of that value as real.
If the deal breaks, you lose the 79-cent spread immediately and the stock goes back to being valued on fundamentals — including $26.8B of long-term debt and a recent drop in EPS from $2.36 to $1.26.
med
regulatory review takes longer than expected
Management expects closing in late 2026 or early 2027. That is a long clock for a stock with only 5.6% upside to the signed consideration.
Even without a break, delays reduce your annualized return. Same 79 cents. More waiting.
med
fundamentals weaken before closing
Full-year EPS fell 47% to $1.26 even though revenue slipped only 0.4%. That kind of earnings volatility is exactly why predictability sits at 15 / 100.
If buyers or regulators start questioning the earnings base, the spread can widen even if the headline deal price stays $15.00.
med
leverage matters again if the public story comes back
A B++ balance sheet sounds fine until you pair it with $26.8B of long-term debt, or 73% of capital. Public markets were already making AES pay for that complexity.
If the deal goes away, investors will revisit the debt load, the 5.0% return on capital, and the weak three-year return history all at once.
A broken deal would not just remove 5.6% upside. It would force the stock to be priced as a standalone utility and clean-energy developer with $12.2B in revenue, $26.8B in debt, and recent EPS of $1.26.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
timeline
late 2026 to early 2027 closing window
That timing determines whether a 5.6% gross spread is merely decent or too thin for the wait.
risk
regulatory approvals
The utilities stay regulated after closing, but you still need the approvals that get the transaction there.
metric
the spread to $15.00
AES at $14.21 versus $15.00 cash means 79 cents of upside. If that gap widens, the market is telling you risk is rising.
trend
earnings quality before close
Revenue was relatively stable. EPS was not. More slippage there could change how investors handicap the deal.
Analyst rankings
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means AES sits near the middle of the pack on safety. in human-speak, this used to be a normal utility risk read, but the pending acquisition now dominates the tape.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
expect more variability than you usually want from a utility. The move from $2.36 to $1.26 in full-year EPS is why.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 292 buyers vs. 230 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.6B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$10
$24
$14
current price
$17
target midpoint · +20% from current · 3-5yr high: $30 (+110% · 24% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive