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what it is
AerCap buys aircraft, rents them to airlines, and collects cash while the global plane shortage does the sales pitch.
how it gets paid
Full year 2025 revenue and other income was about $8.52B (company materials). Segment lines on this page are a simplified bridge — tie lease rent and gains to the earnings tables in the release.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 6.5% last year. Annual revenue reached $8.5B, up 6.5% vs. prior year.
what just happened
Q4 2025 GAAP net income was $633M ($3.79/share); adjusted net income $660M ($3.95/share). Cross-check any “beat %” to your data vendor’s GAAP vs adjusted convention.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
70/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
9.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
5.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 68/100 — average
What they do
AerCap buys aircraft, rents them to airlines, and collects cash while the global plane shortage does the sales pitch.
Scale is the moat here. AerCap owned 3,508 aircraft as of 3/31/25, so if an airline needs lift fast, you are calling the landlord with the deepest hangar. Fleet scale → more planes to place → better bargaining power, so what: delivery delays at manufacturers push customers toward the lessor that already has inventory.
How they make money
$8.5B
FY2025 revenue & other income (~$8.52B) · reconcile line items in the release
lease revenue
$7.24B
net gain on asset sales
$0.83B
other service revenue
$0.34B
other revenue
$0.09B
The products that matter
leases aircraft to airlines
Lease rent
$6.7B · 2026 outlook
this is the core engine. Management expects about $6.7B of lease rent in 2026, or roughly 88% of the $7.6B revenue outlook.
core revenue
collects maintenance reserves
Maintenance revenue
$700M · 2026 outlook
it's smaller, but still meaningful at about $700M expected in 2026. That matters because airline usage and maintenance cycles can move this line around.
cyclical support
sells aircraft and engines
Asset sales
$3.95 EPS impact in 2025
last year's reported $15.37 EPS included $3.95 from asset sales. That's real money, but it's also why the headline earnings number overstates the steady-state run rate.
earnings swing factor
Key numbers
9.8x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings ratio → so what: you are paying under 10 times profit for the largest independent aircraft lessor.
$43.6B
long debt
Total debt was about $43.57B at Dec 31, 2025 (release tables) vs ~$45.3B prior year — leverage improved but the business still runs on borrowed money.
86.0%
reported margin (lease)
Lessors show very high “margin” lines vs manufacturers—this is accounting structure, not operating ease. Read cash interest and ROA, not margin alone.
$210
3-5yr target
The long-range target is $210 versus $150.43 today, a 39.6% gap that explains the bull case in one line.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $43.5B (63% of capital)
- net profit margin 30.1% — keeps 30 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 9% — $0.09 profit for every $1 investors have put in
FY2025 results: aercap.com (Feb 6, 2026)
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AER 3 years ago → it's now worth $24,810.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
AerCap posted quarterly EPS of $3.79, beating the $3.32 estimate by 14.16%.
Annual revenue reached $8.5B, up 6.5% vs. prior year. The operating backdrop stayed favorable as airlines dealt with delivery delays and maintenance backlogs.
~$2.1B
qtr revenue (approx.)
$3.79
eps
86.0%
lease margin (high)
the number that mattered
The key number was the 14.16% EPS beat, because it shows earnings are still outrunning expectations even with consensus modeling a future slowdown.
-
aercap holdings is operating in a favorable environment.the global aviation market is witnessing impressive passenger traffic growth, driven by robust demand for commercial and private air travel.
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while load factors have risen to record levels, delivery delays and maintenance backlogs have ballooned to an unprecedented size.original equipment manufacturers are receiving orders at eye-opening rates, but supply growth is limited by the fact that aircraft production is a complex industrial process. taking these factors together, aercap’s offerings (airplane fleet and engines) and services are probably going to retain strong interest through decade’s end.
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the operating picture for 2026 is coming into focus.aercap is looking for revenues of around $7.6 billion, composed of lease rent of about $6.7 billion, maintenance revenue of approximately $700 million, and other income of roughly $200 million. included in this outlook is the business that was lost from spirit airlines’ chapter 11 restructuring.
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concurrently, the company expects adjusted earnings of $12.00 to $13.00 per share.note that the year-earlier earnings tally of $15.37 per share included $3.95 from the sale of assets.
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while these transactions are a part of operations, they are excluded from guidance.this is probably part of a strategy intended to provide a morepredictable outlook, as the timing of such deals can be uncertain.
Q4/FY2025: aercap.com (Feb 6, 2026)
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is earnings normalization after 2025 asset-sale gains.
med
asset-sale earnings fade
reported 2025 EPS was $15.37, but management said $3.95 came from asset sales and guided 2026 adjusted EPS to $12.00–$13.00. If investors keep valuing the stock off the higher headline number, the multiple is less cheap than it looks.
the direct tell is simple: 2026 guidance already sits $2.37–$3.37 below the reported 2025 EPS.
med
leverage and funding costs
AerCap runs the largest fleet in the industry, but it funds that scale with $43.5B of long-term debt, equal to 63% of capital. This works beautifully when lease spreads hold. It gets uncomfortable fast if financing costs rise or asset values soften.
you are underwriting a ~30% net margin business (per this page’s health row) with a balance sheet that leaves less room for error than the margin suggests.
med
airline credit events
the company leases to 300 airlines, which sounds diversified until one bankruptcy still matters. Management already included lost business from Spirit Airlines' chapter 11 restructuring in the 2026 outlook.
if more customers follow Spirit, the $6.7B lease-rent engine takes the hit first.
med
delivery delays and maintenance bottlenecks
tight aircraft supply helps lease demand, but it also makes fleet planning messier. If delays stretch too far, placements, transitions, and maintenance revenue timing can all get lumpy.
management's 2026 outlook already assumes $700M of maintenance revenue and about $7.6B total revenue. Execution misses show up quickly in numbers this concentrated.
2025 looked stronger than 2026 guidance because $3.95 of EPS came from asset sales, and the whole model still sits on $43.5B of debt.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
adjusted EPS landing inside $12.00–$13.00
this is the easiest way to test whether 2025 was a strong base year or just a very good asset-sale year.
calendar
next guidance update on the $7.6B revenue outlook
management laid out about $6.7B of lease rent, $700M of maintenance revenue, and $200M of other income. Any reset here matters.
trend
whether tight aircraft supply stays tight
delivery delays and maintenance backlogs are helping lessors right now. If supply unclogs faster than expected, lease pricing loses some support.
risk
additional fallout from Spirit Airlines
the 2026 outlook already includes lost Spirit business. Further credit stress in the airline base would tell you this was not a one-off.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts still expect above-average price performance over the next year.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits in the middle of the pack. Not a bunker stock. Not chaos either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is no longer screaming after the run from $86 to about $150.
earnings predictability
70 / 100
earnings are reasonably readable, but asset sales, fleet timing, and airline credit events keep this from feeling bond-like.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
261 buyers vs. 294 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$104
$177
$150
current price
$141
target midpoint · 6% from current · 3-5yr high: $210 (+40% · 9% ann'l return)
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