Start here if you're new
what it is
ADT sells home and small-business security systems, then charges you every month to keep watching the alarm feed.
how it gets paid
FY2025 revenue was $5.13B (+5% vs. FY2024), per the Feb. 2026 release. Monitoring and related services remain the core — segment splits in this block are approximate unless tied to a filing table.
why it's growing
FY2025 total revenue rose 5% vs. the prior year. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $0.89 vs. $0.75 in FY2024 (+19%).
what just happened
Q4 2025: adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $0.23; GAAP was $0.17. Label which EPS your feed is showing.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
9.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
ADT sells home and small-business security systems, then charges you every month to keep watching the alarm feed.
ADT's edge is scale. It serves about 6.4 million monitoring subscribers, making it the largest U.S. security monitoring company in its category, according to the company description in the research snapshot. Recurring monitoring revenue means monthly payments keep showing up after the camera is installed, which gives ADT a steadier base than one-time equipment sellers. If your home security, app controls, and emergency response all sit in one system, switching is annoying, and annoying is profitable.
How they make money
$5.13B
FY2025 revenue · +5% vs. FY2024 (continuing operations)
Monitoring and recurring service
$3.67B
+5%
Installation and product revenue
$0.77B
flat
Residential smart home and automation
$0.41B
+5%
Solar and energy solutions
$0.15B
dn
Small business security services
$0.10B
flat
The products that matter
security system sales and monitoring
Security Hardware & Monitoring
$5.13B FY2025 revenue
it's the whole business in this snapshot, and it grew 4.2% from a year ago. The install gets the customer. The monthly monitoring fee keeps the relationship alive. That's recurring revenue in plain English.
core
Key numbers
3.0%
dividend yield
You are paid 3.0% a year while you wait, which matters when the 18-month target is only $9 from $8 today.
$7.3B
long-term debt
Debt this large limits flexibility. Plain English: more cash has to serve lenders before it serves you.
9.1x
trailing p/e
P/E ratio → price-to-earnings → what investors pay for each dollar of profit. At 9.1x, ADT is priced like a low-growth utility with cameras.
25.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after core costs → how much of each sales dollar survives the day job. At 25.5%, ADT's subscription model is doing real work.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $7.3B (52% of capital)
- net profit margin 17.5% — keeps 18 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — net profit margin looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ADT 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,780.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Q4 2025: adjusted EPS $0.23 · GAAP EPS $0.17 · quarterly revenue $1.28B.
FY2025 revenue was $5.13B (+5%). Adjusted income from continuing operations was $750M ($0.89 per diluted share) vs. $685M ($0.75) in FY2024. GAAP EPS from continuing operations was $0.68 for FY2025.
$5.13B
FY2025 revenue
$0.89
FY adj. EPS
$1.28B
Q4 revenue
the number that mattered
Adjusted EPS growth outpaced revenue growth for FY2025 — read GAAP vs. adjusted side by side because swaps and tax items move the GAAP line.
-
adt shares have traded in a tight band since our mid-november report.
-
that is because the company has not released any financial data over the last three months.the company will report full-year 2025 results on february 26th, which are expected to show a solid performance over the 12-month period. we think the company will report adjusted earnings per share of $0.88, on a mid-single-digit increase in revenues, to $5.15 billion. the top-line rebound was driven by an improvement in the company’s recurring monthly revenue (rmr) metric, as well as by solid customer retention and revenue payback. the expansion of the company’s partnership with technology behemoth google, which included the introduction of five google nest camera models, enhances adt’s smart home security portfolio. we expect this to resonate well with adt’s customers and should help boost the company’s rmr metric.
-
we look for adt to deliver high-single-digit bottom-line growth over the next two years.our expectation is that the provider of home and business security systems will see a pick up in demand for its services, as the aforementioned google nest product refresh attracts new customers and also helps adt retain more of its existing clients.
-
in addition to the google nest enhancements, the company announced several other offerings.the adt+ alarm range extender enhances the platform’s capabilities and dependability, via 24-hour battery backup and tamper alerts. adt also introduced smarter testing for adt+ that brings new automation and ai-driven testing capabilities to streamline app development, reduce the need for manual testing, and deliver faster high-quality releases, ensuring a more reliable experience for adt end users.
-
adt remains a very shareholder-friendly company.
snap-source: ADT Q4/FY2025 results — newsroom.adt.com
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
ADT's risk stack is unusually simple: $7.3B of debt, a business growing 4%–5%, and a recent EPS jump that outpaced sales by a lot. If you own the stock, those are the three things deciding whether 9.1x earnings is cheap or just accurate.
med
debt service can swallow the upside
ADT carries $7.3B in long-term debt, which is more than its roughly $7B market cap. That matters because a business growing 4.7% does not have much spare capacity if borrowing costs move the wrong way or operating performance slips.
A 1% rise in borrowing cost implies roughly $73M in additional annual interest expense. That pressure hits earnings, cash flow, and dividend flexibility at the same time.
med
cheaper DIY options can make retention harder
Ring and SimpliSafe sell a very different pitch: lower friction, simpler setup, and less dependence on professional monitoring. If more customers decide that convenience beats full-service security, ADT has to work harder to win and keep accounts.
That is why the Google Nest partnership matters. It gives ADT a better consumer-facing answer, but it does not guarantee pricing power or easy customer wins.
med
the profit improvement may prove easier than the growth improvement
Full-year EPS rose 33%, from $0.66 to $0.88, while revenue grew 4% in the latest quarter and 4.7% for the year. When profit runs that much faster than sales, cost control is usually carrying a lot of the story.
If quarterly margin falls below the recent 11.6% level or revenue stalls around the current $5B–$5.1B range, the stock loses the argument that today's multiple is too pessimistic.
$7.3B of long-term debt against a $7B market cap is the risk summary. The business is profitable. The balance sheet keeps most of the upside on a short leash.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
whether 4.7% revenue growth holds
This stock can live with slow growth. It cannot live with no growth while carrying $7.3B in debt.
calendar
february 26 earnings
You want confirmation that recurring monthly revenue and retention are still doing the stabilizing work.
risk
debt versus dividend
A 3.0% yield is nice. It matters less if the balance sheet needs more attention than shareholders do.
trend
profit growing faster than sales
EPS rose 33% while revenue growth stayed in the low-single digits. You need to know if that gap is durable or temporary.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance over the next 12 months. in human-speak: they like the setup more than the stock's sleepy trading range suggests.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a rollercoaster either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the stock is moving roughly with the broader market, which fits the $7–$8 trading box.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
earnings are harder to model here. In human-speak: you should leave room for a few unpleasant surprises.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 304 buyers vs. 139 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.7B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$7
$11
$8
current price
$9
target midpoint · +12% from current · 3-5yr high: $16 (+100% · 21% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive