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what it is
ADM buys crops, crushes them, and turns them into ingredients, fuels, and animal feed.
how it gets paid
FY2025 revenue was $80.3B (down ~6% vs. FY2024’s $85.5B). Ag Services & Oilseeds is the largest revenue line at roughly 77% of the consolidated total.
why it's growing
Earnings pressure came from weaker crush margins, trade-flow noise, and biofuel policy uncertainty — segment operating profit fell sharply in parts of AS&O while Nutrition posted modest improvement (per FY2025 materials).
what just happened
Q4 2025 revenue was about $18.6B; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.94 ($0.87 adjusted). Compare GAAP vs. adjusted when you read third-party “beats.”
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
~26x trailing P/E on FY2025 GAAP EPS (~$2.23)
3.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 60/100 — average
What they do
ADM buys crops, crushes them, and turns them into ingredients, fuels, and animal feed.
ADM's edge is scale, not glamour. On FY2025 reported segment revenue, Ag Services & Oilseeds is roughly three-quarters of the consolidated top line; Nutrition is high single digits of revenue but still strategically important. You do not rebuild a global origination and processing footprint overnight.
How they make money
$80.3B
FY2025 revenue · ~−6% vs. FY2024
Ag Services and Oilseeds
$61.6B
~−7%
Carbohydrate Solutions
$10.7B
~−4%
Nutrition
$7.5B
~+2%
The products that matter
crushes and processes crops
Oilseeds, Corn, Wheat & Cocoa Processing
$80.3B revenue
it is the reported $80.3B engine of the business, but soft soybean crush margins are why that scale is not flowing through cleanly to profit.
core engine
makes starches and sweeteners
Carbohydrate Solutions
36% profit drop
operating profit fell 36%, which tells you end-demand weakness can matter more than headline revenue growth.
under pressure
processes renewable fuel inputs
Biofuels Exposure
93% profit drop
the related subsegment saw operating profit plunge 93% as biofuel production slowed. That is why policy delays matter so much here.
policy-sensitive
Key numbers
3.8%
Dividend yield
You get 3.8% just for waiting. That is cash while the crop cycle does its usual theater.
~26x
Trailing P/E
Rough check: price divided by FY2025 GAAP diluted EPS (~$2.23). The multiple moves fast when earnings compress.
11.0%
Return on capital
ADM earns 11.0% on the capital it uses. That beats the grocery-store vibe, but it is still a low-humidity business.
61%
Foreign sales
61% of sales come from outside the U.S. That gives ADM reach, but it also imports currency and policy risk.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $6.6B (19% of capital)
- net profit margin (GAAP) ~1.4% — thin vs. revenue on FY2025 results
- return on equity 13% — $0.13 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ADM 3 years ago → it's now worth $6,890.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Q4 2025 revenue was about $18.6B; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.94 ($0.87 adjusted).
FY2025 revenue was $80.3B vs. $85.5B in FY2024; GAAP EPS was $2.23 vs. $3.65 prior year. Always separate GAAP from adjusted EPS when you read “beats.”
$18.6B
Q4 2025 revenue
$0.94
Q4 GAAP EPS
$2.23
FY2025 GAAP EPS
the number that mattered
The ~$5B revenue step-down vs. FY2024 is the macro story — this is a flow business where top-line scale and margin can move in opposite directions.
-
FY2025 revenue was $80.3B, down from $85.5B in FY2024 — the processor is still moving massive tonnage, but the price/volume mix shifted.however, earnings remained depressed by headwinds in the crushing and carbohydrate solutions businesses.
-
indeed, operating profit in the former subsegment plunged 93% due to reduced biofuel production, while the latter experienced a 36% drop reflecting reduced global demand for sweeteners and starches.
-
the company likely closed out 2025 on a down note.management indicated that delays in u.s. biofuel policy, along with other global activity, make it difficult to estimate the timing of a recovery in biofuel demand.
-
meanwhile, it expected softness in global soybean crush margins to continue.as a result, it looked for adjusted earnings for the year to come in between $3.25 and $3.50 per share, down from the prior projection of about $4.00.
-
the outlook for 2026 appears more encouraging.
snap-source: ADM Q4/FY2025 results (Feb. 2026) — investors.adm.com
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is the accounting probe tied to the nutrition business — because a company earning ~1–2% GAAP net margins on revenue does not get much room for credibility problems.
med
accounting probe and confidence damage
The investigation hangs over the whole story. A 17.1x trailing P/E might look ordinary, but the multiple stays compressed if investors doubt the numbers behind it.
With full-year EPS already down to $3.40 from $4.74, another confidence hit would make a re-rating harder to justify.
med
soft soybean crush margins
Management expects global soybean crush margins to remain weak. That matters because ADM is built to process huge volume, and weak spreads are how a scale machine starts looking ordinary.
Thin GAAP net margins leave little cushion. If crush economics stay soft, revenue can hold up while earnings stay stuck.
med
biofuel policy delays
ADM said delays in U.S. biofuel policy are making the recovery harder to call. That is not abstract. The affected subsegment already saw operating profit plunge 93%.
The $3.25–$3.50 2026 guide assumes conditions stop deteriorating. If policy stays frozen, that range gets harder to defend.
These risks stack on top of each other. A credibility cloud plus weak crush spreads plus delayed biofuel demand is how a 3.8% yield turns into compensation for waiting, not a catalyst.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
accounting probe updates
This is the trust variable. If the probe resolves cleanly, the valuation debate can go back to earnings power instead of governance noise.
metric
soybean crush margins
Management already told you margins remain soft. This is the operating number most likely to decide whether 2026 improves or just looks less bad.
calendar
next earnings guide
After cutting the 2026 adjusted EPS view to $3.25–$3.50, management needs to show the floor is holding.
trend
biofuel demand recovery
The policy backdrop matters because the biofuel-linked subsegment already absorbed a 93% profit drop. You want to see that trend stop getting worse.
Analyst rankings
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — safer than about half the market. in human-speak, this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a chaos stock either.
earnings predictability
60 / 100
Reasonably predictable, not highly predictable. Commodity inputs, processing spreads, and policy all make clean forecasting harder.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
452 buyers vs. 414 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$34
$69
$58
current price
$52
target midpoint · 11% from current · 3-5yr high: $100 (+70% · 17% ann'l return)
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