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what it is
ACI Worldwide sells the software and services that help banks, merchants, and billers move money without the whole system catching fire.
how it gets paid
FY2025 (ended Dec 31, 2025): revenue $1.76B (+10%). Management segments: Payment Software ~$942M (+9%) and Biller ~$818M (+13%)—those two lines sum to the total.
why it's growing
Recurring revenue $1.21B (+11%)—durability of that base is the through-line in the Feb 26, 2026 release.
what just happened
Q4’25: adjusted diluted EPS $0.90 vs. consensus ~$1.01 (miss), while revenue $481.6M beat ~$465M—per Markets Insider / company materials.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
16.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 56/100 — below average
What they do
ACI Worldwide sells the software and services that help banks, merchants, and billers move money without the whole system catching fire.
This business sits inside payment flows you do not want to touch once they work. FY2025 GAAP net margin is ~13% ($227M on $1.76B revenue)—adjusted EBITDA was $506M with net leverage 1.2× per the Feb 26, 2026 release.
How they make money
$1.76B
FY2025 revenue · +10% vs. 2024
Payment Software segment
~$942M
+9%
Biller segment
~$818M
+13%
Segment dollars and growth rates from ACI Worldwide’s Feb 26, 2026 FY2025 release—rounded to millions.
The products that matter
runs bank and merchant payments
Payments Software Platform
$1.76B revenue · +10% FY2025
Two reported segments (Payment Software + Biller) make up the whole $1.76B—either both keep compounding with recurring revenue, or there is nowhere to hide.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
16.9x
earnings multiple
Anchor to GAAP diluted EPS from the 10-K/exhibit—FY2025 net income was $227M including a $22M Mindgate sale gain.
18.7%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: ACI keeps nearly 19 cents of every sales dollar before interest and taxes.
12.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: this business is productive, but not in rare-air territory.
$823M
debt (YE2025)
Company-reported debt balance; net leverage 1.2× adjusted EBITDA per FY2025 release.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $827M (16% of capital)
- net profit margin ~13% GAAP — ~$227M net income on $1.76B FY2025 revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ACIW 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,990.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
Q4’25 / FY2025
Q4’25 adjusted EPS $0.90 vs. ~$1.01 consensus (miss); revenue $481.6M vs. ~$465M (beat).
FY2025: revenue $1.76B (+10%), net income $227M (+12%, includes $22M after-tax Mindgate gain), adjusted EBITDA $506M (+9%), OCF $323M.
$1.76B
FY2025 revenue
$227M
FY2025 net income
$0.90
Q4 adj. EPS
the number that mattered
The Q4 adjusted EPS miss vs. a revenue beat is the classic “quality of earnings” tension—tie any multiple to GAAP diluted EPS from the filing, not headlines.
-
aci worldwide should post solid fourth-quarter results.
-
revenues probably expanded to just over $470 million, driven by strong growth.the biller segment likely maintained healthy momentum, fueled by strength in utility and government verticals. payment software revenues probably benefited from backlog conversion and increased transaction volumes.
-
we think costs were incrementally higher, but margins expanded slightly.
-
all told, we estimate earnings per share reached $1.00 during the december period.
-
we anticipate steady top-line progress in 2026.the company ought to benefit from the ongoing roll out of its aci connetic cloud-native payments platform, which recently signed its first customer. this new offering targets mid-sized institutions and non-bank financial firms, expanding the addressable market. the acquisition of payment components, a european fintech specializing in financial messaging translation and orchestration, should augment connetic’s capabilities and accelerate its development. additionally, the bitpay partnership positions aci to capitalize on the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies. the biller business will likely see growth across the consumer finance, utility, and government sectors. meanwhile, payment software should garner greater demand as customers migrate to cloud-based solutions.
source: ACI Worldwide FY2025 release (Feb 26, 2026) · Q4 adjusted EPS vs. consensus via Markets Insider / primary tables
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is banks and billers moving more slowly than expected to ACI's newer cloud and orchestration products.
med
ACI Connetic has to become more than a slide-deck story
The company recently signed its first customer for Connetic. That's a start, not proof. If rollout stalls, the market will treat ACI like a slower legacy processor instead of a software platform getting a second act.
Impact: the growth case is tied to the full $1.76B FY2025 revenue base across two disclosed segments.
med
cost growth can eat the rerating case quickly
Quarterly margin was 12.9%. Operating margin was 26.8%. Those are good numbers, but they also tell you the stock needs discipline on operating costs, interest, and integration spending.
Impact: if margins slip, a 16.9x trailing p/e stops looking cheap and starts looking fair.
med
45/100 predictability means you should expect uneven quarters
This is not a textbook smooth compounding story. Earnings predictability of 45/100 means backlog conversion, customer timing, or implementation noise can move the quarter more than investors would like.
Impact: when the business misses, the stock usually gets judged on the miss before the long-term story gets a vote.
with two disclosed segments and middling earnings predictability, the full $1.76B story is exposed if cloud migration or execution slips.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
can revenue stay near the recent 10.4% pace
On a $1.76B base, ~10% growth is the whole argument for a rerating. If that fades, the valuation debate changes fast.
risk
whether Connetic moves from first customer to actual scale
The platform story is promising, but the disclosed evidence is still early. You want more than one logo and a nice product narrative.
earnings
next report needs to defend the $2.55 EPS jump
Full-year EPS rose from $1.91 to $2.55. The next question is whether that was the start of a trend or the good part of the cycle.
trend
institutions are buying, but barely
Two quarters of net buying helps, yet 204 buyers versus 201 sellers is conviction with indoor voice energy.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts think the next 12 months look normal, not explosive.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — the stock is neither especially defensive nor especially wild.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart looks better than average even after the stock stayed well below its high.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
translation: quarterly results are harder to model here than at steadier software names.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 204 buyers vs. 201 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$36
$86
$43
current price
$61
target midpoint · +42% from current · 3-5yr high: $75 (+75% · 15% ann'l return)
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