XVARY Composite Score
55
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
Start here if you're new
What it is
Accel installs and runs gambling machines in bars, restaurants, and stores, then takes a cut every time people press buttons.
How it gets paid
Last year Accel Entertainment made $1.33B in revenue. Illinois was the main engine at $963.2M, or 72% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 8.1% last year. The company highlighted a new $900M credit facility and ~3.7M shares repurchased during 2025—read liquidity alongside ~$311M net debt.
What just happened
Q4’25 net revenues $341.4M; FY2025 diluted EPS $0.60 vs. $0.41.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
~19× trailing P/E on FY2025 $0.60 diluted EPS
~8.1% GAAP operating margin FY2025
XVARY composite: 55/100 — below average
What They Do
Accel installs and runs gambling machines in bars, restaurants, and stores, then takes a cut every time people press buttons.
If you run a neighborhood bar, you do not want to handle gaming hardware, compliance, and service yourself. Accel does that across 27,950 terminals and 4,501 locations at YE 2025. Route density still skews to Illinois (~ 72% of FY2025 net revenue)—great scale, concentrated politics.
How They Make Money
$1.33B
FY2025 net revenues · +8.1% YoY
Illinois (net revenue)
$963.2M
FY2025
Montana
$164.3M
FY2025
Nevada
$108.9M
FY2025
All other states + other
$94.6M
FY2025
The Products That Matter
Operates gaming terminals in retail locations
Distributed Gaming Terminals
$1.33B net revenue · 27,950 terminals
Terminals grew 2.9% YoY vs. Q4’24; revenue growth is still mostly the same distributed-gaming engine, with developing states adding color.
100% of revenue
Key Numbers
~19×
trailing P/E
~ $11.51 ÷ $0.60 FY2025 diluted EPS—sanity-check any “low teens” multiple left over from stale EPS.
~$311M
net debt (co.)
Company-reported net debt at Dec 31, 2025 alongside ~$296.6M cash—gross debt is higher; use the filing, not a single “LT debt” line.
$1.24B
net gaming revenue
FY2025 net gaming line in the consolidated statements—core machine economics before amusement / manufacturing / ATM buckets.
8.1%
operating margin
FY2025 operating income $107.9M ÷ net revenues $1,331.0M in the same Ex. 99.1 tables.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- debt Long-term debt ~$569.8M + current maturities ~$37.6M · net debt ~$311M (company)
- net profit margin ~3.9% FY2025 (net income ÷ net revenues)
- return on equity ~19% FY2025 (net income ÷ year-end equity)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in ACEL 3 years ago → it's now worth $15100.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
record FY2025
Q4’25 net revenues $341.4M (+7.5% YoY); FY2025 diluted EPS $0.60 vs. $0.41.
Adjusted EBITDA $56.3M in Q4’25 and $210.1M for the year (non-GAAP, per release). Net income $51.3M FY2025 vs. $35.3M prior year.
$341.4M
Q4 net revenue
$0.60
FY diluted EPS
8.1%
FY revenue growth
capital allocation
The company highlighted a new $900M credit facility (Sep 2025) and ~3.7M shares repurchased during 2025—read liquidity alongside ~$311M net debt.
-
Fairmount Park Casino & Racing: first full year of racing and almost nine months of casino ops called out in the FY2025 release.
-
Developing markets: Louisiana net revenue up materially YoY; Nevada terminal count +13% YoY per the same release tables.
source: Accel EX-99.1, Mar 3, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. Plain English, no spam.
Weekly updates
Earnings alerts
Plain English
No spam
What Could Go Wrong
The core risk here is simple: ACEL built real scale in distributed gaming, but ~72% of FY2025 net revenue still ran through Illinois—and the whole model is still route gaming economics.
High
Illinois changes the economics
Illinois was $963.2M of $1,331.0M FY2025 net revenue (~ 72% ). If that state tightens taxes, licensing, or venue rules, the hit lands on the core business first.
Most net revenue is still one state
Med
Thin profit buffer below the operating line
FY2025 GAAP operating margin was ~ 8.1% and net margin ~ 3.9% —real profit, but not a thick cushion if gaming taxes or compliance costs step up.
small cost changes can chew through profit faster than revenue suggests
Med
One segment still carries the whole story
distributed gaming produced 100% of revenue. That keeps the business easy to understand, but it also means there is no second engine if same-store performance softens or expansion stalls.
100% of revenue comes from one operating model
Med
Footprint growth slows before the map broadens
terminals rose 4.5% and locations rose 3.8% from a year ago. If that pace fades, growth has to come from the same venues in the same markets.
the expansion case weakens without more terminals, more venues, or more states
if Illinois gets tougher and quarterly margin stays around 3.9%, the current discount stops looking conservative and starts looking earned.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Risk
Watch the Illinois sales mix
if Illinois falls below 72% of sales, concentration risk is easing. If it rises, the stock gets even more tied to one regulator and one tax base.
Trend
Track terminal and location growth
YE 2025: 27,950 terminals and 4,501 locations ( +2.9% and +2.2% vs. YE 2024)—footprint still growing, but Illinois mix dominates revenue.
Metric
Watch margin conversion
revenue grew 9% in the quarter, but margin was 3.9%. you want the next revenue dollar to carry more profit than that.
Cal
Watch for cleaner 2026 guidance
the current forward lines show $0.95 EPS and $1B revenue. that combination looks thin against the last reported $1.3B year, so the next formal update matters.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — middle of the pack. in human-speak: the market is waiting for a cleaner margin story.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — near the middle on safety. not a bunker stock, not chaos either.
chart momentum
bottom 5%
technical score 5 — the weakest rating. in human-speak: the chart looks bad until it proves otherwise.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
earnings can be hard to model here. Expect less smoothness than the headline revenue growth suggests.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 66 buyers vs. 63 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 44.9M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$9
$18
$12
Current price
$14
Target midpoint · +22% from current · 3-5yr high: $25 (+115% · 20% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: DCF model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
See plans from $5/moThe Deep Dive