XVARY Composite Score
56
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
Start here if you're new
What it is
Airbnb matches travelers with hosts for homes, rooms, and longer stays, then takes a cut of each booking.
How it gets paid
Last year Airbnb made $12.2B in revenue. North America was the main engine at $5.2B, or 42% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 10% last year. In october, management commented that bookings remain strong, underpinned by longer lead times.
What just happened
Airbnb's last reported quarter showed EPS of $0.56, below the $0.90 estimate.
At a Glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
31.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
34.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
XVARY composite: 56/100 — below average
What They Do
Airbnb matches travelers with hosts for homes, rooms, and longer stays, then takes a cut of each booking.
Airbnb wins because the marketplace is already huge: more than 5 million hosts across 180 countries. That is network effect (more listings bring more guests, more guests bring more hosts, so what: scale keeps feeding itself). You feel it in the search results. More supply gives you more choice, and that makes it harder for smaller rivals to look complete.
How They Make Money
$12.2B
annual revenue (FY2025) · their business grew ~+10% vs. FY2024
North America
$5.2B
+~4%
EMEA
$4.7B
+~14%
Latin America
$1.2B
+~20%
Asia Pacific
$1.2B
+~17%
The Products That Matter
Guest and host booking fees
Platform Fees
$12.2B revenue · ~+10% YoY
this fee pool generated the entire ~$12.2B FY2025 business. With 5M+ hosts on the platform (per company messaging), the investment case is really a bet on transaction volume, take rate, and supply staying available.
100% of revenue
Key Numbers
31.5x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → how many dollars you pay for $1 of past profit → so what: at 31.5x, you are paying up for a company whose revenue grew ~10% last year.
34.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money put into the business → so what: 34.0% is the kind of number that says this platform does not need factories to print cash.
20.8%
operating margin
Operating margin → revenue left after running the business → so what: keeping 20.8 cents of every sales dollar gives Airbnb room to absorb shocks better than weaker travel names.
$18B
2028 revenue
The 2028 revenue estimate is $18B versus $12.2B today. That is the growth story you are being asked to underwrite.
Financial Health
B++
Strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- net profit margin 27.9% — keeps 28 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 36% — $0.36 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in ABNB 3 years ago → it's now worth $16590.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Airbnb's last reported quarter showed EPS of $0.56, below the $0.90 estimate.
That is a 37.78% miss versus consensus. The bigger issue is not one quarter. It is that management already said booking trends likely moderated in late 2025.
$9.5B
revenue
$0.56
eps
20.8%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The EPS miss of 37.78% mattered because expensive stocks do not get much forgiveness when growth is already slowing.
-
Airbnb’s booking trends probably moderated a bit in the final quarter of 2025.
-
In october, management commented that bookings remain strong, underpinned by longer lead times.
-
Such data usually translates into revenue expectations being met.
-
However, the pace of vs. prior year growth will likely slow.
-
Gross booking value is likely to be up in the low double-digit area, versus the 14% witnessed in the third quarter.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The top risk is city-by-city short-term rental restrictions. Airbnb's marketplace only works if hosts are allowed to list homes in the first place.
Med
Local regulation can remove supply fast
The Biloxi lawsuit is the headline, but the real issue is broader. Airbnb operates across 220+ countries and regions with 5M+ hosts, and cities can tighten rules one market at a time.
If listings disappear, the hit goes straight at the transaction engine that generated all $12.2B of revenue.
Med
Booking growth may be slowing into the next leg of the story
Quarterly revenue still rose 10%, but commentary suggests late-2025 booking trends moderated and gross booking value may have grown slower than the 14% pace seen in the third quarter.
Analysts only expect revenue to reach $13B next year from $12.2B now. That is not much room for a miss.
Med
The stock already prices in a quality business
A 31.5x trailing p/e and roughly 27x forward p/e mean investors are paying up for Airbnb's asset-light model and margins.
If operating margin slips from 24.0% or earnings growth stays near 1% while revenue grows around 10%, multiple compression does the damage even if the business remains profitable.
The combined risk picture is simple: all $12.2B of revenue depends on nights booked staying legal, supply staying on the platform, and growth remaining strong enough to justify a premium multiple.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Revenue growth versus the $13B expectation
The street expects revenue to move from $12.2B to $13B. If growth slips below that path, the valuation conversation changes fast.
Risk
New short-term rental restrictions
Biloxi is one case. The real watch item is whether more cities tighten rules that reduce listing supply or raise host friction.
Trend
Booking momentum after the late-2025 moderation
Management cited longer lead times and resilient demand, but the recent read suggests growth may be cooling from the 14% gross booking value pace seen in the third quarter.
Calendar
The next earnings print
You want to see whether quarterly margin can move back above 20.5% while EPS growth re-accelerates from the current 1% full-year pace.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong short-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits near the middle of the market on risk, not in the bunker and not in the casino.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart is not confirming a fresh breakout story right now.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
Low predictability means estimate risk. Translation: expect more debate after earnings than with steadier compounders.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 591 buyers vs. 562 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$94
$208
$131
Current price
$151
Target midpoint · +16% from current · 3-5yr high: $260 (+100% · 19% ann'l return)
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