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what it is
It buys, fixes, and finances cars across 14 states.
how it gets paid
FY2024 revenue was about $17.2B. New vehicles were the largest line at ~$8.77B (~51% of sales).
what just happened
Asbury missed by 1.6% as EPS came in at $6.67 versus $6.78.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
8.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
8.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 65/100 — average
What they do
It buys, fixes, and finances cars across 14 states.
You are not buying one showroom. You are buying 198 new-vehicle franchises and 37 collision centers in 14 states. New cars are 51% of revenue, but parts and service are 46% of gross profit, the money left after direct costs.
How they make money
$17.2B
annual revenue
new vehicle sales
$8.77B
+17.0%
used vehicle sales
$5.16B
+9.0%
parts and service
$2.41B
+9.0%
finance and insurance
$0.86B
+9.0%
The products that matter
retails new vehicles
New Vehicle Sales
$8.8B · 51% of revenue
it is the biggest segment at $8.8B, but size is not the same as resilience when the whole company only keeps about 2.5% net margin on the health panel.
largest segment
retails pre-owned vehicles
Used Vehicles
$5.2B · 30% of revenue
this $5.2B segment matters because used-car pricing can move fast. when prices cool before inventory costs reset, gross profit compresses first and explanations come later.
margin swing factor
maintains and repairs vehicles
Parts and Service
$2.4B · 14% of revenue
it is only 14% of sales at $2.4B, but this is the piece that keeps customers returning after the purchase and helps steady a very cyclical retail model.
stability engine
Key numbers
$289
18-month target
That is about 20% above $240.19, so the upside is real but not heroic.
8.5x
trailing p/e
Trailing p/e means price versus the last 12 months of earnings. So what: you pay $8.50 for $1 of profit.
46%
gross profit share
Parts and service drives 46% of gross profit from 14% of revenue. That is where the money lives.
$3.5B
long-term debt
That debt load equals 43% of capital, so management has less room to play aggressive with cash.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $3.5B (43% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.5% — keeps 2 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ABG 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,140.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Asbury missed by 1.6% as EPS came in at $6.67 versus $6.78.
Revenue was $4.8B in the latest quarter, up 13% vs. prior year. New-vehicle revenue rose 17%, and gross margin held at 54.2%. Press summaries often cite adjusted EPS ~$7.17 for the same window—the $6.67 miss line here is the GAAP print next to a $6.78 GAAP-style estimate.
$4.8B
revenue (Q)
$6.67
eps (Q · GAAP)
54.2%
gross margin (Q)
the number that mattered
Gross margin was 54.2%. That is the number that tells you parts and service still carry the business when car sales get choppy.
-
asbury automotive delivered a strong third-quarter performance.
-
revenue rose 13% vs. prior year to a record $4.8 billion, supported by a 17% increase in new-vehicle revenue, a 9% gain in used-vehicle sales, and 11% growth in parts and service revenue.
-
adjusted earnings per share increased nearly 13% from the year-ago period, to $7.17, reflecting notable support from higher sales.
-
our near-term profit outlook remains mixed.asbury has so far managed the evolving trade and tariff environment reasonably well, as indicated by its revenue mix.
-
roughly one-third of new-vehicle revenue comes from luxury brands, with imports accounting for 41% and domestic vehicles representing 27%.
source: company earnings report, 2025
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is vehicle demand slowing while used-car gross profit normalizes.
high
consumer demand rollover
Cars are financed purchases. If credit tightens or the consumer pulls back, Asbury feels it in both new and used vehicles at once.
revenue exposure: $14.0B across $8.8B of new vehicles and $5.2B of used vehicles
med
used vehicle price normalization
Used cars are a $5.2B business here. If retail prices cool before inventory costs reset, gross profit per unit compresses fast.
direct revenue exposure: $5.2B
med
balance sheet leverage
$3.5B of long-term debt equals 43% of capital. That works while profits hold. It gets less comfortable when net margin is only 2.6%.
43% of capital is debt-funded
med
tariff and brand-mix pressure
Management already flagged trade and tariff risk. About one-third of new-vehicle revenue comes from luxury brands, while imports account for 41% and domestic 27%.
new-vehicle mix has real import exposure, and that sits inside an $8.8B segment
More than 85% of revenue comes from new and used vehicle sales. The $2.4B parts-and-service business helps steady the story, but it does not carry a $17.2B dealer group on its own if car demand breaks.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
gross profit per vehicle
That is the margin tell. Revenue can hold up while profit per unit rolls over under the surface.
metric
parts and service growth
The $2.4B service business is the stabilizer. If it slows while vehicle demand softens, the whole model looks more cyclical than the bull case allows.
trend
same-store sales vs. acquisitions
You want to know whether growth is coming from stores Asbury already owns or from buying more stores. Those are different stories with different quality.
calendar
next earnings call on tariffs and financing
Management already flagged a mixed outlook. Your next check is whether import costs, rate pressure, or credit demand got better or worse.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average performance over the next year. in human-speak, they like the setup more than the chart does.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is middle-of-the-pack risk, not a defensive compounder and not a pure rollercoaster.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — recent trading has been weaker than the fundamental ranking suggests.
earnings predictability
60 / 100
earnings are forecastable enough to model, but not smooth enough to mistake this for a sleep-at-night stock.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 156 buyers vs. 158 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 20.6M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$186
$392
$240
current price
$289
target midpoint · +20% from current · 3-5yr high: $345 (+45% · 10% ann'l return)
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