Start here if you're new
what it is
Alcoa digs bauxite and makes alumina and aluminum for cars, planes, cans, and industrial parts.
how it gets paid
Last year Alcoa made $12.8B in revenue. Public filings describe the business through alumina, aluminum, and bauxite-linked pricing rather than the old downstream-style buckets shown here.
why it's growing
Revenue grew about 8% last year as higher realized aluminum prices and stronger shipments offset weaker alumina pricing.
what just happened
Alcoa reported adjusted EPS of $1.26 on $3.4B of Q4 2025 revenue.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
13.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
0.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 60/100 — average
What they do
Alcoa digs bauxite and makes alumina and aluminum for cars, planes, cans, and industrial parts.
Alcoa runs mines, refineries, smelters, and energy-heavy assets. That scale matters, but this is still a price-cycle business: when alumina and aluminum prices move, earnings can change much faster than the headline revenue line suggests.
How they make money
$12.8B
annual revenue · their business grew about +8% last year
total revenue
$12.8B
+8.0%
The products that matter
refined feedstock for smelters
Alumina
core upstream earnings lever
alumina pricing still sets the tone for the rest of the chain. When alumina prices weaken, even a decent shipment year can feel worse than the top line suggests.
upstream pricing
primary metal smelting and sales
Aluminum
direct exposure to metal prices
when realized aluminum prices move, this is the cleanest earnings lever even if shipment volume does not change much.
price-driven
Key numbers
$12.8B
annual revenue
That is the full-year top line for 2025. For Alcoa, what matters next is how much of that revenue converts when realized metal prices move.
$2.4B
total debt
Year-end total debt was about $2.4B. Manageable, yes, but this is still a capital-intensive commodity business.
$546M
Q4 adj. EBITDA
The quarter produced $546M of adjusted EBITDA excluding special items. That tells you pricing and operations both improved into year-end.
1.85
beta
Beta is a market swing meter. At 1.85, your stock tends to move about 85% more than the market.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $2.4B total debt at year-end
- net profit margin 8.1% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AA 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,900.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Alcoa reported $1.26 of adjusted EPS on $3.4B of Q4 2025 revenue.
The quarter was still messy because of tariff-related costs and weaker alumina pricing, but the reported result showed the business can print real cash when shipments and realized prices cooperate.
$3.4B
revenue
$1.26
eps
$546M
adj. EBITDA
the number that mattered
The $1.26 EPS beat was the clean signal, because it showed Alcoa can still earn more than the market expected.
-
aluminum manufacturer alcoa reported mixed third-quarter results.
-
sales of roughly $3.0 billion met our target and beat the $2.9 billion recorded in the year-earlier period.
-
alumina and aluminum volumes advanced 4% and 1%, respectively, to 2.5 million metric tons and 579,000 metric tons.as for the bottom line, alcoa posted a loss of $0.02 per share, compared with our call for a profit of $0.45 and the $0.57 earned in the like-2024 period.
-
the weak bottom-line result was attributed to tariff-related costs on imported canadian aluminum and lower alumina prices (which were partially offset by higher aluminum prices).the share deficit excluded $895 million of restructuring and related charges stemming from the permanent closure of the kwinana refinery in australia, and a $786 million gain on the sale of alcoa's interest in the joint venture in saudi arabian mining company (ma'aden).still, investor sentiment turned favorable. indeed, alcoa's stock moved higher after management noted the likelihood of sequential improvement in the final period of 2025. for our part, we have revised our full-year forecasts for sales of $12.63 billion (previously $12.44 billion) and a profit of $3.40 a share (previously $3.50). strong overall demand augurs well for operations in 2026. The share price was bolstered by a couple of other factors.
-
the enhancement of alcoa's role in the critical minerals supply chain was a plus.specifically, the company announced a strategic partnership between alcoa and the governments of the united states, australia, and japan to help develop a gallium processing plant.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is lme aluminum price volatility.
high
lme aluminum price volatility
aluminum prices are set by the London Metal Exchange and can swing 30% in a year. in Q4 2025, price changes helped drive a $213M sequential EBITDA increase in the aluminum segment, which tells you how fast earnings power moves when the tape turns.
a 10% aluminum price drop erases roughly $800M of annual revenue.
med
fixed-cost smelting economics
you own mines, refineries, and smelters with high fixed costs. with a 7.6% net margin and 10/100 price stability, there is not much room for lower prices, weaker utilization, and stubborn operating costs to arrive at the same time.
if prices slip while plants run below efficient utilization, margin compression shows up fast.
med
cash flow reversal after a good year
2025 free cash flow reached $567M after a weak base period. that's good news. it's also the part of the story most exposed if pricing softens, because commodity recoveries look healthiest right before the cycle reminds you it is a cycle.
if free cash flow drops back while the stock stays near $45, the cheap-multiple argument gets thinner.
low
capital intensity and debt
$2.4B of total debt is manageable, but it still matters because this is not a light-asset business and downturns usually hit cash flow before they hit management language.
more cash stays inside the balance sheet when the cycle weakens.
a 10% move in aluminum prices swings roughly $800M of revenue. that means the stock is partly an operating business and partly a live chart of the metal.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings report
scheduled for april 16, 2026. consensus expects EPS of $1.18. if alcoa beats again, pricing is still doing more work than cost control alone.
metric
lme aluminum price
this is the scoreboard. revenue, EBITDA, and sentiment all react to it faster than any investor deck will.
trend
alumina strength versus aluminum
alumina grew 15% last year versus 4% for aluminum. if that upstream strength cools, one of the cleaner recovery signals goes with it.
risk
free cash flow after the rebound
2025 free cash flow reached $567M. if that starts slipping while the stock stays near the top of its $22–$48 range, the market is paying for a cycle that already peaked.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak: they like the setup, even if they do not trust the stability.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — the balance-sheet risk is middle-of-the-road. the stock itself is much jumpier than that sounds.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — no extreme signal. you are not buying a screaming breakout here.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
earnings are hard to model. that's what direct commodity exposure looks like once it hits the spreadsheet.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 263 buyers vs. 199 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$18
$62
$45
current price
$40
target midpoint · 12% from current · 3-5yr high: $55 (+20% · 6% ann'l return)
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