Michael Burry doubled down on his long-dated Palantir puts right after a Trump Truth Social post gave the stock a quick lift. He’s holding June 2027 $50 strikes and December 2026 $100 strikes, insisting the fundamental value sits well under $50. You’d think that’d be the perfect contrarian signal in a market that loves to punish anything smelling of hype. Except the actual filings tell a different story—one where commercial momentum is exploding and operational leverage is finally showing up in the cash numbers.
Start with the headline beat that Burry’s thesis conveniently sidesteps. In Q4 2025, Palantir posted total revenue of $1.41 billion, up 70% year-over-year, according to the February 2, 2026 earnings release. U.S. commercial revenue alone jumped 137% to $507 million in that same quarter. That’s not incremental noise; it’s the commercial side suddenly outpacing government growth and driving the bulk of incremental dollars in the U.S. market.
The guidance only piles on. For full-year 2026, Palantir laid out revenue between $7.182 billion and $7.198 billion—implying roughly 61% growth and smashing the street’s prior ~$6.3 billion consensus. U.S. commercial revenue is guided above $3.144 billion, which works out to at least 115% growth from the 2025 base. You’re watching a company that spent years labeled as “government-heavy” now getting real traction in the enterprise bootcamp, with AIP deals closing faster and customers expanding spend.
Cash flow metrics make the disconnect even starker. Adjusted free cash flow for full-year 2025 hit $2.27 billion at a 51% margin, up 82% year-over-year. In Q4 specifically, that margin expanded to 56%. Adjusted operating margin reached 57% in the quarter. Combine that with the 70% revenue growth and you get a Rule of 40 score of 127%—the kind of outlier performance that pure-play AI software names rarely sustain at this scale. While Burry fixates on valuation, the business is printing cash at levels that compress forward multiples fast.
Valuation has already started to reset without the fundamentals breaking. As of April 10, 2026 close, Palantir shares sat around $128, down roughly 28% year-to-date and well off the November 2025 peak near $207. Trailing P/E sits near 203x on TTM earnings, but the forward P/E on 2026 guidance compresses to around 99x. That’s still rich on paper—until you weigh it against 61% guided growth and 50%+ FCF margins. Customer count grew 34% year-over-year, and existing accounts are scaling hard; one energy client reportedly jumped from $4 million to $20 million in annual contract value.
Here’s the deadpan fact bomb: Burry loaded his puts when the stock traded higher. Since then Palantir has grown revenue 70% in a single quarter, generated $2.27 billion in adjusted FCF for the year, and guided 61% growth—while the stock fell 28% YTD. That’s exactly the valuation reset and cash-flow setup Burry usually hunts on the long side, except this time the data is moving against his short.
The consensus still loves the overvalued-AI-hype narrative with heavy government dependence. Burry’s framing leans on that same outdated lens. But the filings show U.S. commercial now powering the acceleration and margin expansion, with government revenue growing a more modest 66% in Q4. Commercial isn’t just catching up—it’s becoming the story. Markets price one path. Reality is delivering three, and the numbers keep confirming the shift.
You don’t need to bet the farm, but ignoring this commercial inflection while Burry sticks to his sub-$50 call looks increasingly like fighting the tape on the wrong side. The bootcamp is working. The leverage is showing. And the puts are aging.