JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM) Pre-Earnings Brief

Q1: Does full-year 2026 NII guidance remain at or above $103 billion, or has it been revised lower due to rates or markets activity?

Why it matters: NII is a core driver of bank profitability and earnings stability; downward revisions signal pressure from lower rates or deposit costs, directly impacting the investment thesis on sustainable revenue growth beyond volatile markets revenue.

Bull answer: Management reaffirms or raises the $103B+ NII outlook, citing resilient deposit growth and stable margins.

Bear answer: Further downward revision below $103B, highlighting persistent rate headwinds or weaker loan demand.

Q2: Will full-year adjusted expenses stay at or below the $105 billion guidance level?

Why it matters: Expense control is critical for operating leverage and margin expansion in a high-compensation environment; beating this threshold supports higher EPS and ROTCE, reinforcing JPM's efficiency edge in the investment case.

Bull answer: Expenses track at or below $105B with disciplined cost management despite revenue-related comp.

Bear answer: Expenses exceed $105B due to higher front-office hiring, marketing, or regulatory costs.

Q3: Does the card net charge-off rate remain at or below the guided 3.4% level?

Why it matters: Credit quality is a key risk metric for consumer banking exposure; staying within guidance validates consumer resilience and limits provisioning drag on earnings, supporting the thesis of stable credit costs amid economic uncertainty.

Bull answer: Charge-offs hold steady or decline below 3.4%, with no signs of consumer stress.

Bear answer: Charge-offs rise above 3.4%, indicating weakening consumer credit trends.

Q4: Will quarterly revenue exceed $49 billion while maintaining or improving the ROTCE above 20%?

Why it matters: Revenue growth and high ROTCE demonstrate the strength of diversified businesses (markets, IB, asset management); consistent beats validate the premium valuation in the investment thesis over peers.

Bull answer: Revenue comfortably beats $49B with ROTCE at or above 23%, driven by broad-based strength.

Bear answer: Revenue falls short of $49B or ROTCE drops below 20% due to margin compression.

Q5: Does CET1 capital ratio stay above 14% while supporting ongoing share repurchases and dividends?

Why it matters: Strong capital levels enable shareholder returns and balance sheet flexibility; maintaining above this threshold signals robust risk management and supports the long-term compounding thesis for JPM stock.

Bull answer: CET1 holds well above 14% with active capital return via buybacks and dividends.

Bear answer: CET1 dips below 14% or capital actions are curtailed due to higher RWA or regulatory pressure.

Q6: Will markets revenue sustain momentum above $11 billion quarterly run-rate?

Why it matters: Markets franchise (trading/IB) is a high-margin growth engine amid volatility; continued strength diversifies earnings away from NII and bolsters the bull case for outperformance versus traditional banking peers.

Bull answer: Markets revenue exceeds $11B run-rate with strong fixed income and equity activity.

Bear answer: Markets revenue normalizes below $11B as volatility subsides.