GLP-1 Weight Loss

This basket targets the GLP-1 weight loss ecosystem, capturing the explosive growth in incretin-based therapies for obesity and related metabolic conditions. It holds 20 names with an effective N of 18.7, spanning pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and adjacent healthcare sectors. The investment logic rests on the market's rapid expansion, with the global obesity GLP-1 segment projected to grow from approximately $10 billion in 2026 to over $66 billion by 2035 at a 23% CAGR, driven by rising prevalence of obesity, expanding indications, oral formulations, and broader access including Medicare. Leading players dominate through superior efficacy in weight reduction and cardiometabolic benefits, fueling sustained demand even as pricing dynamics evolve.

Key risks include intensifying competition and pricing pressure, as evidenced by Novo Nordisk's guidance for a potential 5-13% decline in adjusted sales and operating profit in 2026 at constant exchange rates amid U.S. channel shifts and lower realized prices. Additional exposures involve patent expirations in select emerging markets starting in 2026, potential erosion from compounded or generic alternatives once shortages resolve, and variable patient adherence or combination therapy needs. The highest-conviction position is NVO at 7.6% weight with a 100 exposure score, given its foundational role in pioneering semaglutide-based treatments like Ozempic and Wegovy, which generated substantial obesity care revenue growth of 31% in 2025, positioning it for durable leadership in a market still scaling toward $100 billion-plus potential by the early 2030s.