Start here if you're new
what it is
Carvana sells used cars online, buys your old one, finances the deal, and delivers it to your driveway.
how it gets paid
Last year Carvana made $20.3B in revenue. Retail used vehicle sales was the main engine at $15.4B, or 76% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 48.6% last year. Revenue surged 55% vs. prior year, to $5.65 billion, driven primarily by a 44% increase in retail units sold and higher average selling prices.
what just happened
Carvana's last report beat by 2.91%, with EPS of $1.06 versus the $1.03 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
88.7x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
17.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 42/100 — below average
What they do
Carvana sells used cars online, buys your old one, finances the deal, and delivers it to your driveway.
Carvana makes used-car buying feel less like a Saturday hostage situation. It serves more than 316 metro markets, runs its own delivery network, and had 53,000 vehicles in inventory at year-end 2024. That scale creates convenience moats (moat = a hard-to-copy advantage → so what: you get speed and selection in one click) that smaller dealers cannot match.
How they make money
$20.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +48.6% last year
Retail used vehicle sales
$15.4B
Wholesale vehicle sales
$4.1B
Finance and protection products
$0.5B
Other sales and revenues
$0.3B
The products that matter
online used car retail
Used Vehicle Retail
$20.3B system revenue
This is the core story. The company generated $20.3B in annual revenue and grew 48.6% last year by selling used cars online at scale.
growth engine
inventory clearance channel
Wholesale Vehicle Sales
supports the same $20.3B platform
This matters because not every car belongs in retail. The page does not break out separate wholesale revenue, which is its own signal: you should treat the whole model as one tightly linked used-vehicle machine.
data thin
Key numbers
$7.00
fy2026 eps est
$29B
fy2028 rev est
88.7x
trailing p/e
21.3%
gross margin
Gross profit kept about 21.3% of each revenue dollar.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $4.8B (5% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.4% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 27% — $0.27 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CVNA 3 years ago → it's now worth $945,190.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Carvana's last report beat by 2.91%, with EPS of $1.06 versus the $1.03 estimate.
Revenue was reported at $14.7B, up 161% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 21.3%. The bigger story is that profits stopped looking accidental.
$14.7B
revenue
$1.06
eps
21.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was 21.3% gross margin, because used-car retail is ugly when margins vanish and beautiful when they hold.
-
shares of carvana have been in the spotlight of late, but warrant caution.the high-profile auto retailer joined the s&p 500 on december 22nd, a milestone that has further elevated investor enthusiasm. carvana's market capitalization has expanded to more than $86 billion, supported by management's reaffirmation of its long-term objective to sell roughly three million retail units over the next five to 10 years, alongside a string of strong quarterly results.
-
while these developments have bolstered confidence in the business model, we remain cautious.
-
much of the recent share price momentum appears closely tied to quarterly execution and sentiment-driven trading activity.at a share price near $400, we believe the risk-reward profile is less compelling for new investors. it may be prudent for most to remain on the sidelines while closely monitoring company-specific news.
-
the auto retailer posted solid third-quarter results.the recent report demonstrated that carvana has remained largely unaffected by uneven market dynamics and rising tariff-related costs.
-
revenue surged 55% vs. prior year, to $5.65 billion, driven primarily by a 44% increase in retail units sold and higher average selling prices.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk is the market assuming Carvana can keep scaling a 3.9% margin model without a stumble.
high
valuation outrunning economics
At roughly $94B in market value, 4.6x revenue, and 88.7x trailing earnings, the stock is priced for continued operational improvement. That is a rich setup for a business with a 3.9% net margin.
A small margin miss can matter more here than a large revenue beat.
high
used-car demand is still the whole story
This snapshot shows one $20.3B revenue machine centered on used-vehicle retail. If consumer demand weakens, financing gets tougher, or vehicle affordability slips, there is not much diversification to hide behind.
100% of disclosed annual revenue ties back to the same broad operating system.
med
execution risk disguised as momentum
48.6% revenue growth and positive EPS make the story look cleaner than it used to. But 15 / 100 earnings predictability says the operating line can still move around a lot from quarter to quarter.
If growth slows while margins stay thin, the multiple has less to stand on.
med
volatility is not a side effect
A 5 / 100 price stability score means violent moves are part of the package. When a stock has already traveled from $40 to $485 inside 52 weeks, positioning can become the story as much as fundamentals.
Expect fast re-ratings both up and down.
At 4.6x revenue and 88.7x earnings, this stock needs the 48.6% growth story and the 3.9% margin story to hold at the same time.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
net margin holding above 3.9%
That is the number carrying a lot of the valuation weight. If profitability slips while revenue stays high, the stock can still disappoint.
calendar
next earnings release
The next quarterly report is expected in late April or early May 2026. You are looking for unit growth, margin durability, and whether $1.85 EPS feels repeatable.
trend
institutional buying staying positive
Institutions have been net buyers for three straight quarters. If that reverses after a huge run, sentiment can change faster than the business does.
risk
stock split and post-split behavior
The 5-for-1 stock split does not change intrinsic value. It can change trading behavior, which matters more than usual when price stability is 5 / 100.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a clean near-term setup after the run.
risk profile
high risk
stability score 4 — this is riskier than most stocks and it tends to move that way.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is no longer sending a special signal. The fundamentals have to do more of the work.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
Earnings predictability: 15 / 100. Translation: expect bigger estimate swings and less forgiveness when results land.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 436 buyers vs. 311 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$257
$735
$430
current price
$496
target midpoint · +15% from current · 3-5yr high: $735
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