quantitative profile

Quantitative factor profile covering value, momentum, quality, and volatility characteristics relative to the universe.

momentum score
42
vs 50 universe median
value score
68
p/e 19.5x vs sector 22x
quality score
55
roe 9.0%, fcf yield 6.0%
volatility (ann.)
18.2%
beta 0.48 vs spy
sharpe ratio
0.31
12-month trailing
dcf fair value
$57.90
118% upside from $26.58
Key Takeaway: The 118% valuation gap between current price ($26.58) and DCF Base Case ($57.90) is the most significant quantitative signal in this pane. This disconnect is driven by the market's Implied Growth Rate of -12.3%, which assumes severe revenue contraction that contradicts the stable Free Cash Flow of $9.08B and Gross Margin of 74.3% observed in FY2025 SEC EDGAR filings.

liquidity profile & market impact

large cap

Pfizer trades with substantial liquidity befitting its $151.1B market capitalization and NYSE listing. Average daily volume typically ranges between 25-35 million shares, translating to approximately $700M-$900M in notional value traded per session at the current price of $26.97. This liquidity profile allows institutional investors to establish or exit meaningful positions without excessive market impact.

The bid-ask spread for PFE typically tightens to 1-2 cents during regular trading hours, representing a spread of roughly 0.04-0.08% of the share price. This is competitive with large-cap pharmaceutical peers such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Merck (MRK), though slightly wider than the most liquid mega-cap names. For a $10M position, our market impact model estimates 3-5 days to fully liquidate with minimal slippage, assuming execution via VWAP algorithms during normal market conditions.

Institutional turnover ratio stands at approximately 42% annually, indicating moderate churn among fund holders. This suggests a stable shareholder base with less speculative trading compared to biotech names, but more activity than ultra-defensive consumer staples. For block trades exceeding $50M notional, we estimate market impact of 15-25 basis points if executed over multiple days, making PFE suitable for medium-to-large institutional allocations without requiring dark pool execution strategies.

technical indicators & price structure

neutral

Pfizer's technical profile as of Mar 20, 2026 shows the stock trading at $26.58, positioned below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a near-term downtrend within a longer-term consolidation range. The 50-day DMA sits approximately at $28.40, while the 200-day DMA is near $29.80, creating overhead resistance that must be cleared for bullish momentum to resume. This positioning is consistent with the Momentum Score of 42 in our factor model, which ranks in the 38th percentile versus the universe.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 44.2, placing it in neutral territory between oversold (30) and overbought (70) levels. This suggests neither extreme buying nor selling pressure dominates the recent tape. The MACD histogram shows a slight negative divergence, with the signal line trading below the MACD line by approximately 0.18 points, indicating modest bearish momentum that has not yet accelerated into a confirmed downtrend.

Volume trends over the past 20 trading days show average daily volume of 28.4M shares, roughly in line with the 90-day average, suggesting no unusual accumulation or distribution patterns. Key support levels exist at $25.00 (psychological round number) and $23.50 (2025 low), while resistance clusters at $28.50 (50-day DMA) and $31.00 (200-day DMA plus prior consolidation zone). The Beta of 0.48 confirms lower volatility than the broader market, consistent with the defensive characteristics expected from large-cap pharmaceutical names during uncertain macro environments.

Exhibit 1: Factor Exposure Scores vs Pharmaceutical Universe
factor score percentile vs universe trend
momentum 42 NEUTRAL 38th deteriorating
value 68 STRONG 72nd IMPROVING
quality 55 NEUTRAL 54th STABLE
size 91 STRONG 95th STABLE
volatility 73 STRONG 78th IMPROVING
growth 31 WEAK 25th deteriorating
Exhibit 2: Historical Drawdown Analysis (2021-2025)
start date end date peak-to-trough % recovery days catalyst
nov 2021 oct 2022 WEAK -42.3% 487 covid revenue peak passed
jul 2023 oct 2023 NEUTRAL -18.7% 124 paxlovid guidance cut
mar 2024 jun 2024 STRONG -12.4% 89 sector rotation out of pharma
jan 2025 mar 2025 STRONG -9.8% 67 q4 2024 earnings miss
aug 2025 sep 2025 STRONG -5.3% 31 pipeline trial delay announced
Exhibit 3: Correlation Analysis vs Market & Peers
asset 1yr correlation 3yr correlation rolling 90d current interpretation
spy (s&p 500) 0.62 0.58 0.71 moderate beta exposure
qqq (nasdaq 100) 0.48 0.44 0.53 lower tech correlation
xlv (health care etf) 0.79 0.82 0.85 high sector alignment
jnj (johnson & johnson) 0.71 0.68 0.74 peer correlation elevated
mrk (merck & co.) 0.66 0.63 0.69 moderate peer alignment
abbv (abbvie inc.) 0.58 0.55 0.61 lower correlation opportunity
factor exposure radar: pfe vs universe median
Balance Sheet Risk: Goodwill of $71.26B represents 82.4% of Shareholders' Equity ($86.48B) as of December 31, 2025 per SEC EDGAR. This creates substantial impairment risk if acquired product lines underperform or patent cliffs accelerate. A 20% goodwill write-down would erase approximately $14.25B of book value, reducing tangible equity to near-zero levels and potentially triggering debt covenant concerns.
Quantitative Verdict: The quant signals present a mixed picture that supports a cautious Long position with tight risk management. Value factors (72nd percentile) and low volatility (78th percentile) support accumulation at current levels, but Growth factors (25th percentile) and deteriorating Momentum (38th percentile) argue against aggressive sizing. The 118% DCF upside is compelling, but the Monte Carlo Mean of $30.89 suggests more modest expected returns. Position at 2-3% portfolio weight with stop-loss at $23.50.
We see a 54% discount to fair value ($26.97 vs $57.90 DCF) as a potential entry point for patient capital, despite near-term headwinds. The market's Implied Growth Rate of -12.3% appears overly pessimistic given Free Cash Flow of $9.08B and Gross Margin of 74.3%. This is bullish for a 12-18 month hold. We would turn negative if Q1 2026 revenue declines exceed 5% YoY or if goodwill impairment charges exceed $10B.
See Valuation
See Competitive Position
See Product & Technology