| nii_rate_sensitivity |
fed funds rate remains above 4.5% through end-2025 due to sticky inflation; deposit beta falls below 30% (vs. historical 40-50%) as customers remain rate-insensitive; loan-to-deposit ratio rises above 75% (from ~65%) driving faster asset repricing… |
True 28% |
| credit_cycle_turn |
u.s. unemployment remains below 4.5% through 2026; commercial real estate delinquencies peak below 3% (vs. 2008-2012 cycle 8-9%); consumer 30+ day delinquencies stay below 2.5% on jpm card portfolio… |
True 35% |
| competitive_advantage_durability |
jpm maintains #1 or #2 wallet share in investment banking across m&a, equity, and debt; payments revenue grows >8% annually with merchant services gaining share vs. stripe/adyen; roe sustains above 14% through 2026 vs. peer average of 10-11% |
True 22% |
| earnings_quality_sustainability |
core ppnr (ex-items) grows >7% annually 2024-2026; non-recurring gains fall below $2b annually (vs. $5-8b recent); revenue from recurring fee streams (aum, payments, corporate banking) exceeds 55% of total… |
True 31% |
| capital_allocation_discipline |
basel iii endgame rules finalized with <10% rwa inflation for jpm; cet1 ratio sustains 13.0-13.5% without restricting buybacks; annual buybacks + dividends exceed $30b through 2026 with no regulatory objection… |
True 38% |
| digital_transformation_execution |
onyx/tokenized assets platform processes >$500b monthly volume by 2026; ai-driven revenue (fraud prevention, trading, customer service) exceeds $3b annually by 2027; jpm coin/wholesale payments captures >10% of intraday settlement volume… |
True 45% |